The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
That's a very smart bird you have there Sainharry, keep it tweeting to us all! Just hope the crushers have not been 'Made in China' as some grey suit was heard to say a while back!
No problems WD43, the opportunity for you to get off that fence and onto the Wolf train again may arise in the next couple of months if the report is good, and production accelerates. Fingers crossed.
Yes Bulent 74, I do know Wolf would have to confirm release of the £5m top up to the Bridging Loan, I was just outlining a possible reason why it had not been used to date, another reason could be that production has been sufficient to move over the income v cost break even point, or another reason could be that discussions have not yet been concluded with RCF as noted in the last Activities Report.
No doubt all will become more clear at the end of July.
Daytrader, for the last two quarters Wolf have actually expended below the Form 5B forecast by around 7% and 14% so probably it is right to say expenditure could be lower than the AS$28 million forecast. Also there has been no confirmation that the remaining £5 million of the extended Bridging Loan has been taken? Wolf also had approx. £10 million in escrow accounts (Stated in last years Annual Report) that were due to become available upon completion of certain activities/events. Perhaps this money has now been released to Wolf which has negated the need to extend Bridging Loan further.
Tin production is more up and down Daytrader, and the 124 tonnes produced in Oct-Dec 2017 was probably a spike. That's why the 100 tonnes I estimate is worked out on last quarters ratio of 81/345x430. If 400 tonnes has gone to WBH you can add say another 100 tonnes of tin production, making say AS$ 4 million for tin, so total quarterly income would be AS$ 33 million.
However the WBH income can only be treated as supposition until Wolf publish figures at end of July, or evidence of what has actually gone to WBH can be found in advance.
Well if say 400 tonnes of concentrate had gone to WBH I suppose you would need to calculate the US dollars for it into Euro for delivery then back into AS dollars for payment to Wolf. So 400 x US $26,700 x 0.85 exchange rate US$ to Euro x 1.58 exchange rate Euro to AS$ gives income of around AS$14 million if my calcs are correct.
Daytrader - Have no info on European shipments, but we have previous assessments that tell of anywhere between 12 and 25% goes to WBH, so on that basis it could be from 50 to 100 tonnes, but is only an informed guess. I thought you had heard of a lot of tonnage going to Europe, can you put any better estimate on the figure than mine?
Metal Bulletin European APT price today US$349 - 354 per mtu from US$350 - 354 last week. Price flatlined for last 2 weeks.
So looking at shipments to US offtaker GTP for April - June, the Panjiva website reports approx. 430 tonnes of tungsten concentrate shipped, an improvement over the January - March figures. The significant point here is that approx. 275 tonnes recorded as shipped for June alone, if that tonnage was maintained into the next quarter ( the start of the new 2018/19 financial year) production would be approaching nameplate. Any shipments to European Offtaker WBH, as yet unconfirmed, would have to be added to the US figure. Tin concentrate production could be around 100 tonnes.
The APT price has risen from around US$325 to $350 per mtu gradually during the quarter, so taking the average of say US$335 per mtu ($33,500 per tonne) less 20% offtakers discount Wolf got paid around US$26,700 per tonne for tungsten concentrate as an average April - June. Exchange rate US$ to AS$ has been around 1.3 for the period.
Projection of tungsten income for period on 430 tonnes comes out at approx AS$15 million to which tin income would have to be added, guess here as offtaker discount unknown, say AS$2 million. The production position is improving as Wolf move into the 2018/19 financial year from July 1st, but still expect a loss for 2017/18 year to June albeit reduced from 2016/17 year.
The Activities Report released around 31 July will be critical for information on timeframe to production break even, and Form 5B to see if costs are actually reducing for the future quarter. The outstanding debt is still the key issue holding back the share price, and until Wolf can demonstrate they can service it by increasing production consistently in the longer term the market will keep the price depressed at these levels.
If anyone can improve/correct content of this post would be happy to receive SENSIBLE comments.
Metal Bulletin European APT Price today $350 - $354 per mtu up from $345 - $352 last week
There you go again Daytrader, running people down again when you do not need to. Any questions I have will be asked when necessary. Richam will comment on the latest 79 tonne shipment to GTP if he wants to. It is good news because the total for this quarter now has reached last quarter with 2 weeks to go in June, and adding on the 'stonking great load' to WBH that you posted previously, but cannot reveal, the situation could be improving for the better. Would you predict the result for April to June will be better than the 435 tonnes of tungsten concentrate and 124 tonnes of tin concentrate reported for the December quarter, which has been the best Wolf has achieved to date?
Thanks Daytrader. Meeting tonight is for the Local Mining Liaison Group, attended by County, Local and Parish Councils, the EA and EHO, Planning Authority and Wolf. The Agenda covers Planning, Environment, Public feedback, LFN, Blasting and Council updates for varied issues, and does not include an item for Shareholder questions. Don't think it is the correct forum for Wolf to be asked production/financial types of questions.
Correction on my 12.59 post, Wolf due to publish Activities Report to end of June at end of July.
Hello Mr.B Assuming you meant at what APT price Wolf would become break even. That question will be more easy to answer at the end of July when Wolf publish the Activities report to the end July. Will attempt to answer below:- By using what we know from Wolf last quarterly report the operating loss was AS$7 million, convert that to US$5.3million as tungsten concentrate is priced in US dollars. Production was 346 tonnes of tungsten concentrate and 81 tonnes of tin concentrate and the average APT price was US$318 per mtu ($31,800 per tonne) for the quarter and tin price is around US$20,000 per tonne. Wolf receive 20% less on the APT price for offtaker discounts, so were getting US$ 250 per mtu $25,000 per tonne) last quarter. If the APT price were say US$500 per mtu Wolf would therefore receive US$ 400 ($40,000 per tonne) a difference of US$15,000 per tonne. If you multiply the difference by 346 tonnes produced that comes to approx. US$5.2 million, so in rough terms, not including tin production, if the APT price was US$500 per mtu now and Wolf produced the same as they did last quarter they would be around break even in terms of production v costs. Hope that helps, others may be more accurate in their assessments.
Richam, thanks for the analysis of proportions to GTP/WBH up until March 2018, if the whispers and hearings of DT13 and Bulent are correct this will change the shipments proportion Wolf have been making previously. Unfortunately they seem unable to share any factual information with this board's members, but we will discover at the next Activities Report if shipments to WBH have increased as they suggest. Lets hope more is going to WBH, as shipment information to GTP this quarter would lead us to a similar outcome to the Jan - Mar 2018 period. Interesting chart, to me this demonstrates that although the APT price has all but doubled, the share price has dropped more and possibly the only current driving factor to the share price is Wolf increasing production from where it currently stands. If the APT price was to rise, say 50% more in the short term, this may have some affect on the share price as it would assist profitability and quicken the production break even point.
You really must practice what you preach Bulent and 'DYOR' more deeply. The APT Price did not crash from $450 to $250 in the last few years, it crashed below your figure and the actual low point was $170-$180 in the spring of 2016. I would not have invested in Wolf if I thought it was going broke, that would be mad. I have a better scooby doo than you as when I purchased the shares the price was low and the risk/reward opportunity higher. I have no personal vendetta against Wolf and obviously want them to turn profitable to claw back current paper loss. 'DYOR' on my past posts. I am not concerned about you �230K investment, and God, unfortunately, will not be helping you recover your paper losses unless he or she is present in the Wolf processing plant and turns up the dials up to maximum production soon.
????????????? We will see if WBH has taken 'the lot' or a 'stonking great load' at the end of July. They need to ship more tonnage to Europe because we can see from what is going to GTP that it is probably not enough to generate the income to be at break even by June as has been predicted by DT 13. Pity you did not 'DYOR' more deeply before spending �230K on your 2M Wolf shares, you might not be sitting on a six figure paper loss now. More money than sense.
Metal Bulletin European Free Market APT Price today $345-$352 per mtu, up from $342-$347 last week. With 3 weeks to go before the quarter end, shipments to GTP could get to where they were last quarter. Richam did you ever make an estimate of what tonnage of concentrate that was shipped to WB&H and GTP from the Jan to March total of 346 tonnes produced once Wolf published the last Activities Report?
That would be good news DT13. If more concentrate has been shipped to WBH it may explain why the amounts that have been sent to GTP are lower so far this quarter as Richam has posted. Are you able to determine the tonnage of concentrate that has gone East?
Just to answer a few questions you posted recently Wolf Debt currently �133 million in total, with �63m senior debt at interest 4.25% + Libor and �65m bridging loan at interest 15%. A further �5m bridging loan is probably to be taken before end June. Interest payments deferred until January 2019. If Wolf are not at production break even by July more funding may be required. The APT price does not really matter at this point, as it is only by increasing production very soon that Wolf will become break even and can then start to pay off the debt mountain. Wolf are currently at around 35% ish of their own stated 'Nameplate' production figures, and after 2.5 years since production started they are still not able to make targets available for when 'Nameplate' will be achieved. It does not give confidence about the prospects. Thanks to you WRES board guys for trying to reason with Bulent 74, but I have concluded it is futile, there are serious anger issues in place there and common decency is sadly lacking in that poor individual who finds it difficult to accept reasoned arguments on the actual current position of Wolf. But it takes all sorts, as they say, and we will probably have to endure further tirades of abuse from a blinkered perma bull in the hope of an attitude improvement, but don't hold your breath anybody.
Metal Bulletin European APT price today $342 - 347 per mtu up from $340 - 345 per mtu last week. Yes Richam very worrying, would I be right in estimating only two 19 tonne (7/5 and 22/5) shipments and two 38 tonne (14/5) shipments have been made to GTP since April 3, making 114 tonnes in this quarter (April to June) so far. With one month to go until 2017/18 year end, production in June to GTP will have to be sensational to make income at least equal last quarter, unless it's all been going to WBH in Austria for which we cannot track the shipments. Also the current bridging facility will probably all be expended by end June, so the finance will have run out. Unless Wolf are at financial break even for production at end June (As DT 13 predicted), than more cash support will be required in some shape or form.