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I’ve just picked up 2m shares yesterday and today.
Price move looks completely overdone, given the financials and H2 comments.
I just bought 30k this morning, 45k turnover so at the very minimum 66% buy / 34% sell ratio and the price falls.
All my buys were priced virtually at the bid price so it does look like ongoing seller in the background, happy to be paid the bid to offload.
I’m confident the seller is pushing the price down and it will bounce once that sell is complete and/or results updated in July.
Hi,
Will TLW ever be a likely takeover target for HBR in an effort to reduce their UK tax burden ?
Never invested in TLW and can’t seem to pin down whether they have a decent amount of unused deferred tax losses ?!?
At 52 week low starting to wonder if 35p has value.
Thanks
I’ve bought 50k over the past few weeks.
Hopeful of a decent quarterly update and I share all the potential positive catalysts that people have all mentioned on this board.
While the old highs are unlikely to ever be seen again I think £5 a share is easily achievable if dividend or jurisdiction change or corporate activity event happens. Gold seems to be supportive and hopefully production and the inventory also on the right trajectory.
I’m sure we can easily return to £2 at which point I’ll be down 30% and buying more, but that’s part of the fun!
Good luck all (longs)
Hi Wingnut,
Sorry to hear you’re far underwater. I’m confident there are much better times ahead. The new CEO is far more confidence inspiring, he seems to deal more in facts and achievable targets than the previous CEO, who seemed to love publishing RNS about customer numbers running trials which promised a lot and delivered no growth whatsoever.
I think £1 is possible, with some signs of progress towards the 3X revenues, even higher if IQE has some new contract news, becomes M&A target or simply shows signs of institutional confidence again.
I’m scared to be out sub 50p now, I think the bad news is over, save maybe one last set of average accounts with reorg provisions. 2023 should be the start of better times so I’m happy to be invested and might increase my holding in another portfolio.
Good luck and happy Christmas
I was lucky this morning - bought in early.
Have been watching for a while and wanted to accumulate a position before year end and hold for Trading update and dividend.
Has to be a decent investment under £3 ??????
Here’s hoping that all the longs get a little Santa rally before 2023 - maybe he is just delayed/strike action this year
You guys stick to your gut instinct, or alternatively send me your emails and I’ll snapshot a small part of my HL account and email it back.
Rather have that than continued accusations which detract from why we are all here. Emails or stick to the remarks about the company (positive or negative).
Sorry, I don’t buy that this is all a big government conspiracy.
Just looking at this from a conventional economic standpoint, where scare capital means all jurisdictions and projects should be evaluated on a ROCE basis (after tax).
Companies will not invest in the UKNS with a constantly changing fiscal regime where they take all the risk for just 25% of the profit. Desperate short term measures by UK Gov and unless changed will result in more oil/gas imports and lower tax revenue over time.
HBR should now invest overseas and build up Mexico/Asia production where governments want to work with OG companies to help guarantee supply on reasonable economic and fiscal terms.
The continued delay to providing an audit update is beginning to look more than embarrassing! The board are showing their total incompetence.
The only saving grace is that the board invested in the recent capital raise at 30p so they are down 60%.
However, they are about to make themselves whole through the LTIP - so we can see why they are not worried, all at the expense of the current shareholders.
The institutional holders must be livid and hopefully they are providing direct feedback to the board.
MJH need to provide an update soon or they will be cut off from future capital markets.
Just bought 500k - hope it doesn’t crash back to 30p now.
Where is the year end trading update. It should be strong:
- revenues up
- positive exchange rate
- possibly net cash
- strong guidance
I fully expect a continuation of the exceptionals we have seen in past few years, as restructure and legal costs take a chunk out of the profit - but they must be running out of these costs soon ?!?!
Can AL deliver jam in 2023…….I hope so
HBR equity is 2.6bn and debt is approx 1bn so enterprise value = 3.6bn
If Neptune is sold for 5bn (assuming no debt) then HBR is clearly undervalued at current SP, but often corporate activity is the only way to realise a companies true value.
WFT has cost HBR dearly as the full valuation impact from 23-28 is taken against the equity valuation.
In my opinion all NS oil companies should negotiate with UK Gov so windfall tax only comes into effect at $100+ oil. If this can’t be agreed then companies should run down UKNS operations and invest outside UKNS.
MRC - they’ve implied it with their statement regarding high Dutch revenues.
That’s good enough for me, I think 22/23 results will show a healthy profit and they will have removed decommission liabilities with albeit a partial reduction of cash at bank.
I’m happy with that, the potential catalysts in the pipeline and the Fincap risked target price well above current share price.
Happy to run some risk with this share - time will tell MRC - good luck with whatever your position is.
The recent results RNS actually states how it will be funded (out of increased Dutch revenues), so any speculation about using the entire cash pile is likely very largely incorrect:
As a result of the excellent cash flow received from the Netherlands this year, we decided to move forward with legacy decommissioning activities that are required to be carried out in the UKCS. Completing this work will position Parkmead well ahead of its next phase of growth, with no major abandonment liabilities going forward. Decommissioning provisions for the period were £19.2m (2021: £0.4m). The Group is also capitalising on lower costs, agreed before the significant inflation in the offshore market.
You cannot simply say that last years cash balance is offset by future decommissioning work, as it’s 21/22 cash and 22/23 spend (apples and oranges)……
22/23 and future year revenues will probably largely fund the decommissioning work (with maybe some cash at bank). So cash asset should be largely intact and decommissioning should also have limited PnL impact as largely provisioned over last few years.
Hi MRC,
If the business is generating €9m in revenues from Netherlands every 4 months then why can’t this be used to fund the decommissioning ?
There is no cash flow forecast to say the £19m will be spent in one year.
It’s my belief that costs will be brought forward from 1-12 years to 1-3 years because finally the company is generating decent revenues and these can be used so the cash at bank will remain relatively untouched.
TC is commercial and relatively savvy, so he isn’t going to go from a position of financial prudence with £23m in cash to almost zero in one year.
Time will tell - next interims.
That’s my view anyway
Best
Hi All,
I can’t say I really like this company at all - but I have built a decent position as I do believe it is probably undervalued at the current share price.
I’m now invested in more than I should be and a sizeable % hoping that we see better days ahead.
The management should be ashamed of themselves at the very least and possibly corrupt in the worst scenario.
- Badly managed
- Always pushing better EBITDA guidance
- Conflicted with their LTIP
- Not profitable
- Greedy and only appear to be working for their own benefit
I am hoping for a turnaround story here, starting with
- New management
- Clear path to net profit
- LTIP aligned with shareholders
It’s not a bad business, it just looks like badly managed and clear conflicts of interest which have been unearthed during the audit. The last fund raising should probably be investigated by the FCA.
Saying that I am just hopeful that the worst is priced in and some better days ahead. It’s trading at NAV so it’s up to the company to prove it is worth more than the intangible goodwill it is based on. Profits and net cash required for a rebuild of confidence here.
If there isn’t a RNS soon to conclude the audit then MJH should be ashamed even more.
Not compelling but I’m invested in the hope they do what is right and start to run this like a proper company and not a family business.
Hi All,
I’ve built a sizeable position here over the past few weeks and happy to sit and watch now. I’m a bit short of my target but don’t want to buy over 2/2.20 levels.
I like the management, turnaround, growing cash balances, sensible decision making and the level of management shareholding.
Pretty sure this share will rerate in time with improving financials, if corporate activity doesn’t come along first.
Bit annoyed that private investors were not included in the fund raising at 1.35p, they should have been given the opportunity, but I don’t believe that will happen again, as cash is good, RCF in place and I doubt Green brothers want further dilution.
Happy to be heavily invested here and excited to see where the company goes.
In answer to your question - why was this miles off ?
I think you have just misread the dates in the analysis. I believe the article is based on huge increases to revenue and profit in the 22/23 financial year - not the recently reported 21/22 year.
That’s my understanding
All the best
Hi all,
I’ve built up a decent position here over the past few days. I was a Dana investor so am hoping for something similar here in time.
I’ve also sent PMG IR a question regarding the decommissioning provisions (no answer yet). A £19m provision in the current period I believe is badly worded, hopefully they mean they have built up a £19m provision over several years and intend to start using it soon. While this will not affect the profit and loss account, due to the provision on the balance sheet, it will impact the bank balance and TC has been very cautious to keep that intact so I assume they will use the exceptional Dutch revenues (€9m in first 4 months), to fund this expense and hopefully keep the cash at bank relatively static.
I see value here at this level, several potential catalysts for the shares, just a question of timing hopefully.
Good luck all