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No probs Trotsky, appreciate the to and thro even though our respective viewpoints differ. Even if you're right and the share price rises post consolidation I have time on my hands and cash waiting from profits taken. The road to £5+ isn't a smooth uphill line that's for sure! I'm getting better with FOMO the more I play this game too. GLA.
I think we'll have to agree to disagree Trotsky. Somehow you think this return of capital is more 'special' than Tesco's or NG's I don't see it all. I'm sure those companies did it for exactly the same reasons Aviva are. Every example I've seen of a consolidation involves an immediate SP drop. Not just one - all of them. I'm a big long term Aviva fan but I'm not that blinded that I'm trying to see downward heading lines post consolidation as "interpretation". And if I've got it wrong it cost me more to buy a slice of the pie if I want some, that's all.
No more than 427p on the 13th. Any more than that you'll lose money on the conversion. Still, I'm sure they'll be a few buyers around who can't work it out even tho the maths is already done for you on this site.
The compelling logic - and evidence - is there Trotsky, but you choose not to see it because it doesn't suit your argument. Tesco, National Grid, Melrose and others all suffered falls of up to 10% following their share consolidations. That can't be argued as the charts are in the history books. So there is every reason to believe I might be able to get back in under my target figure which will leave better off without both divi and B share. You have correctly said that there is an increase in yield but is that enough to see an increase in immediate share price? Trading update on the new plan will probably be more of a factor, so for me I see a window of opportunity. We'll see for sure 16/17 May.
I see those figures being set in stone now. That circular looks definite to me and more generous with the ratio and B share pay out than the illustrative example. The figure of 427 could now be a ceiling price until the record date I'm thinking. Who's going to buy more now if they lose value after consolidation?
Your paper gets an F for fail Mr Maths. Way too complicated and an incorrect consolidation rate. Should be 0.76.
Thanks for your thoughts Dividendchaser. Anything under 424 means I've done the right thing. Personally, I don't see it taking a £1 dip as per 'normal' EX divivdend dips. A drop to £3 would mean a dividend of over 10% at 31.5p so I don't see that happening at all. £4 is a yield of almost 8% which I see a more likely figure. Aviva shares have been good to me so £3.80-£.3.90 or under and I'll be buying.
Dividend Chaser - is that a typo that you think the post consolidation price will dip a pound to 320 / 330?
Trading update coming up will be a nice indicator. Will make for an interesting May.
That's why I dont see the share price going too much over 424 now max. Trotsky - It's just as normal as Tesco's sale of assets. All you've done is give me another example of a consolidation where by the sound of it there was immediate downward movement on the share price! Can't see anything different here from what I've looked at for all the other consolidations. Happy to eat humble 16/5 if I'm wrong and will just keep my profits. History say I'll be back in tho.
Wednesday - I see that trading update on the 19th playing a significant factor. I'm guessing a 7-10% drop on 16/5 (of Fridays record date price) followed by a solid trading update which could make any dip very shortlived. I can't really lose as I've banked profits so any price under 424 will be a decent result. And if I've got it wrong, no worrie, well played to all for staying the course.
Great stuff Trotsky. But that would go against EVERY share consolidation I've analyzed. It would be great for shareholders who have gone through the process if that was the case - fair play to you. But my profits have been secured and are no longer at risk. I've asked this question before and I'll ask you the same: can you provide me with an example of a conolidation where there is an immediate increase?? And you are suggesting a huge increase! All the evidence suggests to me I will be buying sub £4 in the immediate aftermath.
You're changing the narrative here C Trader. I'm not arguing the long term benefits here - that's exactly why I want to buy back in. I'm referring to the immediate post consolidation period only. Get your calculator out and crunch the numbers to see if you would have better off selling before the divi and consolidation and buying back in afterwards. The number you will get to is 4.24. If you sold above this and can get back in lower than that you would have better off not going through the consolidation. I'll be amazed if the share price goes much higher than that prior to the record date. Where am I getting £4 from? Historical analysis. Melrose, Tesco, National Grid, Centrica all suffered immediate post consolidation falls of 7-10%. I've secured my profits on a covid average of under £3, which I'm glad I've done. Think there will be a lot of butt sore people here when they see their value on 16/5 without the B share in their account.
Popeye, sorry to break the news to you but I think you are going to wake up extremely disappointed on 16/5. Where on earth are you getting 570 from? Aviva's own calculator is looking to achieve the same share price immediately post consolidation. Tesco's consolidation - and there are a few disgruntled holders here - says that isn't going to happen. Please feel free to enlighten me on a consolidation that involved a SP increase. Nothing to say it can't get to 570 in future of course. But 570 aint gonna happen. More likely I buy back in sub £4.
The Wednesday - you can't categorically say the share price will be the same on opening day Mon 16th May. Every share consolidation I've seen has resulted in an initial SP drop. The recovery has come later. For those who sold above 4.24 you will be better off without the divi and B share if you can buy back afterwards below this price. I've secured profits at 4.37 and feel confident that history will repeat itself with this consolidation.
The Tesco consolidation was 15 new for 19 old. How did you end up with more afterwards AV53? You must have reinvested the capital I presume?
Ouch. Thanks for the information. I took option 1 to secure profits and avoid that scenario, minus the tax implications as I'm in an ISA. Will get back in post consolidation at the right price if market allows.
How much did the Tesco actually fall by IAPR? London Stock Exchange said it fell by nearly 20p within days but lots of other charts - including HL, AJ Bell, Yahoo Finance - had it falling almost a quid from £3ish to £2ish.
They're hoping for exactly the same share value for post consolidation. Is anybody able to cite a consolidation example where that actually happened? The four I looked at, including Tesco last year, all went down as an immediate reaction.