The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Each to their own and all that but would never have gone for DLG over LGEN. DLG is a business in decline, and is forecast to decline more. L&G is the opposite where "the jaws between net capital surplus generation and the dividend are widening." It's clear from the the Q2 Q&A transcript Nigel wants growth, and it's being achieved. In the end the share price will catch up, it's inevitable.
I agree with Trump and Kerchings views here. Not sure how the housing market has peaked when you look at the overview. The 300000 Conervative commitment wasn't even close to being met, 216000 were built according to ONS 20-21. The UK population is growing and over a million people are on social housing waiting lists. ONS predicts population growth of 3.2% over the next ten years. Where are all these people going to live?? And are the BOE going to raise interest rates to the point where people start losing their houses? Don't think all that defaulting will be helping the economy much! Here in Devon house prices are at a record high. Our local estate agent says they're levelling off but not going down. We have zero spare housing capacity and me and my friends cannot kick our 20 somethings out of our houses as there are no affordable houses to buy. All caused by lack of supply. We have a new 400 house Persimmon development being built in Paignton soon - Inglewood. Hoping my 20 somethings can get in on the act there.
Psn isn't anywhere near my main holding so I'm taking this an opportunity to buy more. Got a few BDEV too. I was more concerned by the housing cladding problem but that looks a non event for this company. Yes the future dividend policy may be adjusted as per Equils email enquiry but the future book is as strong as the national housing demand. I'm more than happy to buy more and average down.
I'm currently doing a compounding high yielding approach CSDI based on far less companies. I'm well aware that less diversity increases risk but I've got no issue whatsoever with that at all. The way I look at it is why would I want to bet on the 12th, 16th, and 19th performing horse when I can stick to half a dozen consistent winners. Currently projecting over 8% next year and so far very happy with the results..
Nice post Equilibrium. I know share buybacks are a swear word for most investors but for those in it for the long term I wouldn't have an issue with this at all at these prices. Hopefully it would bring a bit less volatility to the share price. Barratt have just started same.
It's not barking at all Trotsky. More like you're analysis is when you're comparing to the anomoly of last year. Bottom line is there are more than a million more policyholders than last year and group turnover is increasing year on year. Unlike DLG's GWP which is heading in the wrong direction. Fortunately, Mr Market can see which is on the up and which one is in decline.
Public transport isn't cheap travel, and not convenient for a lot of people. Far cheaper for me to jump in my SUV diesel and transport four people than pay for four extortianate train tickets.
Perhaps it's just me but I think drivers appear to be slowing down to get more MPG. Got to help claims numbers.
May have bottomed out. Been rising last month.
More a slide than a plateau. Will take prospective 7.75% at £4 tho.
Retirment - That dip was entirely predictable which I predicted on numerous posts on this site. It mainly fell on deaf ears here tho...
Thanks for the reply Trotsky. Good fundamentals they are too. It's all the external factors not being constant which gives me a chance of 350. After all, I boought in at 258 originally. Best of luck to you anyway.
Been guilty of not selling at the right time on too many occasions as well! Can be a bit addictive looking at a nice big blue figure and making this share or that share a favourite, which is only natural. The more I play this game tho, the better I'm getting at value investing on basically good companies.
Thanks for the kudos but there have been plenty of times where I've got it all wrong, so it was nice to get one right! Have kept some profits back in reserve for this and will watch with interest. Most of it went went into L&G sub 250 which was just too good to refuse.
Well looks like Aviva wasn't so special as you thought Trotsky. The share price followed all the other consolidation examples I cited and fell. Admittedly not as much as I expected, but it fell nonetheless. You're too attached to this share man. The basic fact is it would have been better off selling a month or so ago and buying back this morning. Decided not to myself, as now the show's over I see plenty of downside, targeting 350 with cash waiting. and no butt sore here either.
Have both LGEN and PHNX already so this is just a bit of short term trading profits prior to seeing what happens to Av. Thinking was more volume and volatility on the former and possibility of a decent rebound after the sharp ex div falls. Happy to hold both.
Out of interest If it went back over £5 in a short time frame at what point would you take profits? Obviously any future reinvestments will be on a lesser yield the higher the price goes. Is continued reinvestment your strategy here or is there a target price? It was great for me to see a big increase on my Aviva value but diversification demanded I had to sell and this was the catalyst for that. I've significantly increased my position in LGEN with todays falls which I'm hoping will prove a nice double edged opportunity for me. A small rebound in time for 16/17 May and an entry point of 417 or less would have Mrs DBB looking at the cruise finder site again. Our views may differ on Aviva's immediate consolidation reaction but this is a no brainer for me. If both come off happy days. If not I now hold more LGEN at a great price with a yield of 7% and the strong probability of a price increase. I see it as a win win for me.
Eurofox thanks for the factual information. All I've done is used the figures that Aviva have provided so far. And until those figures change it is what it is. I'm still more than happy to have sold and banked profits as my holdings are looking far more diversified and carry less risk. Everybody is aware of the increased dividend yield Trotsky. And you can keep pulling estimated figures out of thin air all day long hitman. The fact that the share price has continued to rise following the announcement indicates to me that there are buyers who are here just for the B share. Which will mean that in all likelihood they will be hitting the sell button on 16th May. This adds further weight to my theory of a sell off post consolidation - as in every other consolidation I've looked at. Until that becomes clear your guesses of a post consolidation increase are as good as mine.
His maths aren't quite correct but you will lose on the conversion process on any price above 423.3p. So the point of what he is saying isn't nonsense at all. A quick play on the consolidation calculator proves that. It's not an unreasonable question to ask and didn't deserve the condescending reply.
Even Aviva's calculator value's their own shares at 423.3p!
Trotsky - you can't argue with that. The maths are spot on. That is exactly the value pre and post consolidation should the share price go up between the record date, and the effect of it. I quote 2nd March 22 from Aviva's own website:
Proposed return of capital and share consolidation
To maintain comparability between the market price for Aviva ordinary shares and ADSs before and after the implementation of the B share scheme, it is proposed that the B share scheme will be accompanied by a share consolidation (and an equivalent consolidation of the ADSs) (the "Share Consolidation").
IT IS THE ENTIRE REASON THAT THEY ARE DOING A CONSOLIDATION AND NOT A SPECIAL DIVIDEND!!! Your yield calculations are not even correct as the circular shows the expected dividend is 31p and not 31.5p. And it is NOT fixed in the slightest - please read the circular. I give up, I really do!!
I'm net expecting the share price to rise on Mon 16th hitman. I'm expecting them to fall.
The 4.27p you were asking about Trotsky is on the maths below in this thread. Hopefully this will help you see where I'm coming from. Aviva currently values it's shares at 4.24p just by value alone from it's own ratios. We both agree that Aviva want the same price pre and post valuation right? That is the intention. Ignoring the purchase tax say I were to buy 10000 shares at 450p my current value would be £45,000. Easy. Post consolidation I would own 7600 shares. 7600 x 4.50 = £34200. Add on your B share pot of £10169 and you get a post consolidation figure of £44369 so you've lost £631 through the process. That's why I sold. Looks like Mr Maths and C Trader have factored in the rebuying costs into their formula below. But anybody with a big holding will know this already so that's why there IS a current ceiling, despite what some might say on this site. After that our views on market reaction obviously differ and that's the interesting part.