Just my take15 Sep 2023 13:28
Hi…. only my second ever post on LSE - hopefully I’ll be welcomed and not attacked by the toxic trope. I think that’s something that has put me off from posting in the past.
It’s been interesting reading the variety of posts on this particular forum and perhaps getting to know the posters a little by what they write, especially seeing how some have evolved over the last couple of years.
I only invest in 12 different shares of which THG is one. I am a long-term holder and with the current dip I’m underwater as I’m guessing quite a number of others also are. I listened to the investor call that was held yesterday and I’ve actually changed my thinking somewhat on this share. I was always in it for the long haul and have not actively been hoping or praying for an MBO or a takeout/delist. That has not changed. To me what became clear yesterday on the investor call, was that THG is not, as has been presented numerous times in the past, a completely developed company. It is still very much a work in progress and is still in its infancy. D2C yes but not to scale. Yet. And yes, I heard that last year too.
Yes, nutrition and beauty have well established brands, but they are all still being linked with ingenuity which is very much a concept coming to reality, despite separation of the divisions. For me personally, THG is very much as a pre-IPO because of where it is in its development. A lot of the forum members bring up CAPEX and quite rightly, so…. THG, launched as a complete package when in reality., it still has a fair way to go, particularly because of ingenuity. Perhaps this is why it is so difficult to assign a value to ingenuity, and indeed to THG as a whole. I think for the THG concept in its entirety to be developed, it needed the capital that the listing afforded it. I do agree that in particular the CEO would struggle to let it go because he has such a clear vision of how he wants it to be, and even perhaps how it could and should be. Unfortunately, I do not believe that even he had deep enough pockets to bring that to fruition without the investment that has come from listing. There are investors on board that have very deep pockets indeed, and yet still it remains a work in progress at a rudimentary level.
The question I now ask myself is am I happy to continue to hold, knowing that it is going to be quite some time before THG, as a whole is understood and can be assigned a realistic and tangible evaluation. There is still so much work to be done and it will not happen overnight. A lot of you also mention jam tomorrow….. for me personally, I can’t help, but feel a little annoyed, for want of a better expression, that the word ‘adjusted’ is used with such alarming frequency ( I counted 18 examples) that THG’s own projections cannot be relied upon even within a reasonable margin of error.
Delivering shareholder value is the primary responsibility of the company. And that company does not