The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Evraz is NOT being sanctioned, and to be honest one one knows what sort of agreement will come out of the peace talk. I don't believe after all said and done companies like evr, gazprom etc... Is going to be worth £0.
I would be really surprised if lifting sanctions won't be part of the compromises. Let's assume Russia asset is £0 but 2/3 of their revenue comes from non-russian assets, so I think there is value either way, Justin Trudeau already hinted evraz NA can continue to operate.
Quiet happy for this to be halted for a few months until everything has been sort out.
Very soon... As I wrote this morning, Georgia took 12 days and Crimea 35 days, Ukraine is almost 20 days now. The war will end as quickly as it started. Not out of the woods yet but imagine if sanctions lifted and business as usual, if if there is no buyers at least I can rely on the upcoming dividends!
The guardian: Ukraine is working with Israel and Turkey as potential mediators in peace talks.
A location and a framework for discussions is being finalised for negotiations with Russia, said Ukrainian presidential advisor and negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak.
“When it is worked out, there will be a meeting. I think it won’t take long for us to get there,” he told national television according to Reuters.
If RA is willing to give up chealsea for free alone with written off the £1.5b debt Chelsea borrowed I cant see why he wouldn't be able to donate part of his massive holding to charity (for purpose of rebuilding Ukraine) until the fca are satisfied he does not have effective control.
There is some green snips on the news today that Russian is coming to the table (Ukraine is always keen). I think a compromise will come soon and certain sanctions will be lifted. If that happens evr (which is NOT sanctioned) will have a big role to play in rebuilding Ukraine.
As you know things has changed alot in the space of 3 weeks, things can also change for the better 3 weeks from now also.
I don't mind evr being halted until everything is clear tbh as there is so much theories going on that it's anyone's guess. From a common sense perspective part of the negotiations would be lifting sanctions, it always comes down to 2 things (money and power).
From the guardian: looks like good news, Putin also said something similar yesterday.
Zelenskiy says any negotiations with Russia must begin with ceasefire
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said that any negotiations with Russia will have to begin with a ceasefire as he accused the west of insufficient involvement in peace talks.
He said that Russian and Ukrainian negotiating teams have started talking about concrete topics as opposed to exchanging ultimatums, reports Reuters.
All the directors quit polymetal and it's still trading. Worth noting some of the directors quitting were oligarchs and non-independant directors so that's a good sign.
The board can not be refreshed to help with lifting the halt.
End of the day, the sooner the war ends there will be compromises on both ends. We just don't know but I do hope Putin comes to his senses.
If RA is as generous to Chelsea he can also donate his evr shareholding to charity to rebuild Ukraine. The £ value in evr is substantially less than Chelsea as well. I'm sure the govt would approve that in a heart beat.
Also given the entire board has resigned, they can hire 10 new independent directors (maybe some from the government) so any issue with control is out of the question.
Lots of work around. The steel ban is going to hurt but it depends on how long but we also got rasp back whcih is good.
I'm sure the American business is worth a pretty penny + their cash hoardes will weather the storm.
I'm hoping to get some form of timetable in regards to this process next week. Fortunately q1 reporting is next month so we will know what our balance sheet will look like and an updated forecast from evraz.
The reality is that no one in this forum can predict what is going to happen and we are in uncharted territory and while it's good we are debating our theories, the share is in halt so at least none of what we say is going to impact the share price.
Ending the invasion is the best possible way to stop the rout, this is what I'm hoping soon.
I'm happy to see evr halted until war is over tbh.
After the lesson learnt from Ukraine it would be a pipedream that he can invade another country. Ukraine was opportunistic mainly because it's bordered with Russian and Belarus, he would not have any geographical advantage anywhere else in EU cities.
Further more, unless FCA can prove evr is in cahoots with Kremlin it's innocence before proven, evr has not been sanctioned just halted.
Crimea: 20 Feb to 26 march
Georgia: 1 aug to 12 aug
Ukraine: 25 feb - ?
Ukraine by far the bloodiest due to a bigger area, well weaponised army and western support. Im hoping russian will come to the negotiation table faster due to that and I think evraz has the balance sheet to last for awhile. Ukraine has already compromised alot so the ramp off is already there.
£7 (inc. rasp) will never happen again, but if we can exit ard £1.5 (inc. dividends) I'll be a happy man.
I have no illusions on Putin as a person. I assume the Russian people are hurting just like EVR holders.
I believe that given the dividend was stopped, EVR should be in a strong financial position to withstand for awhile and therefore it would be in the best interest to temp halt the trading as news just gets worse if Putin doesn't stop.
Now its a question of when ceasefire will stop and sanctions lifted as I'm sure they have seriously underestimated the level of sanctions that was hit on to them. We are still at a point of hope and compromise can still happen.
Basically this means we get rasp back, so effectivly we went from £7 to .8p mainly attributed to the Russian invasion.
It's not the worse thing this is in a halt as I can imagine bloodbath if it gets unsuspended.
I truly hope a compromise is coming and things can get back to normal. I don't understand what sort of benefits Putin sees in this war, given he's like 70 years old he should step down for the benefit of the world.
I view a trading halt was in the best interest of evr but now that evr has responded does anyone know what will happen next? For us holders a day feels like a week...
It would be great if there is a timeline and considering evr's disagreement with the govt assessment of the situation can they fight in court before actually get sanctioned (but that's assuming they will).
Can AB / evr mitigate these allegations such as ab donating part of his shares or evr hiring more independent directors so that sanctions can be avoided?
not much we can do now. Waiting for the RNS.
For what's it worth I do think we will salvage something here if this was to be broken up in parts.
I hope they can let EVR to continue to run and make damn sure the cash is being hold by an impartial party and in a western bank.
I'm using barclays and my order went through (i set the price to a limit).
The reality is that the spread is huge so you see wild swings, and the platform is not intuitive or user friendly. The fact we have to wait in a queue just to buy when the price is below the limit is very weird.
Further more whether we topped up at 80 or 85 or even 90p, unless your a trader my PT is much higher and its irrelevant.
Cash at bank > Market cap, so Evr is valued at 0 right now.
For some NOT paying the dividend is good news (although i'm annoyed at the timing of the annoucement like most of you).
People exiting today because of no div are just odd! They do realised its a 0 sum game (Ex-div = price drop). Its all about the peace talk, we will know more tonight! Happy to defer the div until we are in a better place.
DYOR GL ALL
Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba has arrived in Antalya, Turkey, for negotiations with Russian foreign minister Lavrov.
In just under one hour the pair will meet in the highest level meeting between the two sides since the beginning of the war. Turkish president Recep Erdogan said he hopes “the meeting between the ministers will open the way to a permanent ceasefire”.
Looking at this deeper, share buyback is a no go given the amount of shares the oligarchs already has in the company.
So how are they going to spent their massive cash hoardes? As at 31/12 they have 1.03b of cash, add in 3 months of robust operations then looking at another 700m so 1.7b USD total as at 31 march. Market cap on evr is £1.35b.
Well i think the dividend is only deferred due to uncertainty but once this has passed we could see evr paying the the biggest yield dividend in FTSE 100 this year.
As a qualified accountant and CFA canceling the dividend was the right call. They only has 2 weeks to enact on this and bulk of the invasion happened at this time so it's not like they had alot of time to decide, some people will exit tomorrow but people like myself will top up because of exactly this reason and their strong financial position.
Any dividend payments will follow by share price reduction anyways, wouldn't it be better to keep it within the company to strengthen the balance sheet (And for this matter also the share price)?
As far as of today, they have more cash in the bank than the current share price, and with no material impact on their operations in the last 3 months and with peace talks coming up you do the math. Imagine what a 20% stock buyback will have on the share price !