The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Happy to be proven wrong but I'm pretty confident that's the case. It's the shareholder that is sanctioned and not evr so evr can do what is deem fit, however they no longer have a full board to approve dividend amounts so that makes things complicated.
Who's the other shareholder besides RA being sanctioned? I must admit I lost track on the sanction oligarchs as any russian that seems to be wealthy is deemed to sanctioned...
I would think the dividend payment would be escrowed or set aside in a seperate holding accounting and that's it. It'll be as simple as that imo.
I do hope assuming the result are good that EVR pays a small dividend. Not because I need the money but to shut some investors up and once and for all confirm that EVR can and will pay dividends while suspended, company are still making money and is NOT sanctioned.
EVR is no different to Poly expect we can't buy/sell shares at the moment.
https://www.mining.com/web/indonesia-australia-face-limits-in-coal-exports-to-europe-ahead-of-russian-ban/
New big coal mines will be less and less as we deal with climate change. Rasp volume will be brought but probably at a discount one way or another.
We are 6 weeks into a war, what's to say in 3 months down the track it's back to bau. It won't get much worse from the EU when it comes to coal and steel sanctions, fortunately we don't sell much to them anyways and I think we are still profitable even now.
Even though evr is suspended I think they are still able to pay dividends.
The free float in shares isnt alot or expensive so it's likely we will get a good price for it if buyout does happen.
Proxldm - shareholders that held before / after rasp demerger did not get screwed over as they got rasp back.
Shareholders brought post demerger announcement got benefited.
Shareholders sold post demerger announcement got screwed over but arguble benefited as they avoided the bloodbath.
Agreed, Evr was suspended at the worse time possible. Since they they have:
-got rasp back (MC is twice evr's sp)
-evr cancelled the dividend of .50usd
-rasp cancelled fy21 dividend
-rasp reopened on the mcx and SP is strong
-pol and Pog made a strong come back
-coal and steel prices still very strong and I suspect they are profitable even with sanctions on Russia so their fcf is probably swelling up
Yep, really excited on the RASP section. RASP alone can carry the entire EVR and then some.
Looking at their Fy21 results and statement on 23rd March it highlights that:
-They have 0 Net Debt
-EPS is a whopping 1.31USD (or 1 pound)
-Volume mainly goes to EVR, Domestic and Asia. They don't sell much to EU
Statement on 23rd March: Although international sanctions against Russia and restrictions imposed by Russia have not to date had a material impact on the Company's operations or its trading and financial position, given the current
uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine relations, the Board has decided not to recommend the payment of a
dividend for 2021.
Yes I think nhc does thermal but it's more the trend. Coal isn't dead although its widely marketed as it is. I'm sure we all recall when oil was negative spot price during covid.
Right now sentiment is very low for Russian companies but sentiment can change pretty quickly. I feel currently the media is piling on the bad news while in the background a ceasefire agreement might be coming soon. Putin would recalibrate their thinking knowingly the West will just continue to pile on sanctions and providing weapons to the Ukrainians.
https://www.ft.com/content/c41c7ef0-e03a-4963-8793-e8931ba29e39
Honestly I'm much more excited on rasp than evr. Very glad we getting rasp back. Rasp vol to EU's is only 3% so more than offset by the coal price. China will clean up the volume rather than buying from Australia imo, but they are under pressure not to due to western pressure. In the meantime we are selling excess volume to India at a discount.
Some asx coal stocks performance YTD:
Whitehaven coal - up 57%
New hope coal - up 63%
Yancoal - up 79%
Rasp ytd down 19%. Once ceasefire happens evr / rasp will benefit most from rebuilding Ukraine due to RA's connection to zelensky.
Rasp Q1 reports on 25th April
EVR Q1 reports on 28th April
Evr suspended payment of 0.5USD due to the war and Rasp 15 days ago also recommend no dividend payment for 2021 although they made 875m USD profit!
Their EPS is pretty low, so imo the longer the suspension the more cashed up evr / rasp will be which probably means a bigger dividend payout eventually when suspension is lifted (or using the cash to take evr private).
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-is-confidential-talks-over-ukraine-guarantees-scholz-2022-04-06/
Somewhat silence on the peace talks the last fews days. Not sure if it's a good thing or bad, I think good mainly because of further Russian sanctions and they cannot spin away these horrific pictures.
I think if they want EvR to go private it would be quiet easy, the reason they don't is as per mentioned because of sanctions and securing capital from non-russian sources. The reason why I think it's pretty easy to go private is becuase:
1. Not everyone votes. These that can't be bothered to vote will then be proxies to the chairman. That's why renumeration reports is always 90% + in favour even during bad times becuase majority of us don't vote.
2. If they offer £2.5-3 a share, I think alot of us will go for it
Thing is, if going private is the main goal then EVR wouldn't have to dance around with paying over the top dividends to ensure RA doesn't go over 30%. They can just commence a share buy back and soaking up as much free float as possible before going private.
Q1 report in less than 4 weeks, I think it'll be a positive one with rasp back in.
All imo but I think the main reason why evr was ever listed in LSE was so that they can:
1. Trade legitimately as a listed company and therefore avoid sanctions (which currently Evr is not sanctioned)
2. Ability to raised capital easily from non-russian banks and therefore helps with the legitimacy of a non-russian entity and avoid sanctions
If the above is no longer valid it makes sense to take evr private than relisting as let's be honest it makes commercial sense to do so because:
1. Currently only £380m is free float (if you subtract the 66% major shareholding).
2. EVR has free cashflow of over $1b. Arguably they they buyout the free float at £2.5 without needing to borrow any money
3. Their debt position has dropped from $5.2b to $3.5b over 5 years so they no longer require that much debt
4. KAZ was taken private because of the Russian connection and shareholders did ok with this and can be used as a similar template to take EVR private
5. As the 4 majore holders already have 66% of the company, buying up another 9% shouldn't be hard and any offer will and can become unconditional
6. I believe they are operationally profit, low PE and high yield, together with all time high commidity prices it's a very attractive asset. Makes alot of commercial sense.
I wouldn't listen to the naysayers that our shares are worthless, it's just a matter of time and time we have.
Unlikely to happen for evr for 2 main reasons:
-this will likely lead to another war with the Russians
-RA is in Ukraine's good side and I have no doubt evr will be involve in a positive way in rebuilding of Ukraine
This law might work if it hits oligarchs in which russian sees as enemies of the state.
Lodan - I normally get a cheque when it was delisted (but that's me being too lazy to update my banking details which I have now updated). Even if it's delisted the company can still use services such as computershare share regsitery and they will arrange dividend payments for their behalf.
I'm not concern on evr NA tbh. It's one of the shining lights for evr. Ra not sanctioned in US as well.
Pueblo Mayor Nick Gradisar said in a recent statement that he’s monitoring the situation. “It is not likely that any sanctions against the shareholders of EVRAZ plc would affect the operations of the Pueblo plant,” he said.
A statement from the company said, “ENA operates independently in the United States and Canada, in all areas, including procurement of raw materials, operating production facilities and corporate financing. In the United States and in Canada, we represent domestic industry. We produce steel with American and Canadian workers, supporting the American and Canadian economies. Our facilities are ingrained in the local communities in which they operate.”
I personally held a share that had operations in Africa (iron ore mining) that was listed then got delisted and then got relisted again. I never sold the shares and had been recieiving dividends from them for the last 12 years which has more than paid for my initial investment and now that share is trading at a PE of 8 (sp doubled to what I paid for) and I'm still holding.
Evr we have no choice but to hold but end of the day the financials and dividends will dictate the price. Currently Evr is trading at a ridiculous pe of 0.5 (PE of 4 is probably appropriate to factor in political risk), if operations are still sound then I'm fine with delisting and rec dividends and maybe some day it'll be relisted.
Let say evr dividend is £.4p a year, that's still a 50% yield based on current SP, hold this for 10 years and you would have X5 your money on dividend alone.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.in/politics/world/news/a-steel-company-says-it-has-lost-a-third-of-its-sales-after-its-russian-oligarch-owner-was-sanctioned/amp_articleshow/90597606.cms
Don't be fool by the title, but if you read between the lines it implies 1/3 of their sales were for EU but non-eu sales remains unchanged and their steel will be redirected to non-eu nations. This is great news as evr is only 7% exposed to the EU on steel (and even less for coal) and it seems the volume can be redirected.
Since the suspension poly has more than reciver by 200% from it's low so if evr were to reopen tomorrow it'll likely be around £1.7 + rasp contribution which we Thot is no longer ours.
It's at least £3 if evr reopens today imo. But £5 is not out of the question depending when the trading halt is lifted.
Right now we have Q1 operational report to look forward to in April. I have no doubt certain areas will be impacted by alot but with rasp coming back in I think it's looking good for us holders.
Evr is worth £6-7 inc. rasp before invasion.
Best news for a Friday!
Our share of Rasp alone is worth £2.4b! Evr MC is £1.2b.
Russian steel companies also making a comeback too and evr NA probably doing well.
£3 reopen is a real possibility even before ceasefire now, £5 is definitely a reality if ceasefire agreement happens.