Member Info for deepbluediver

Someone said this before " we are all traders, just at different timescales".

Spud end Dec with completion end Jan 22, production if it goes ahead will be sometime early 2024 - all these, were stated some months back on this BB. Its not long (Jan 22 to early Q1-24 - 24 months), its normal and expected. If they can beat it, fine. Funding is still very risky - two partners with no cashflow on this license and no track record of development and production . The money folks will try and do their best to cream off cashflow with PIK , turn, upside on their terms etc etc. 2-3x repayment of total debt raised is what i expect (3x is my bet!) anything better i will be happy. Those NPV for ADV will look very different than the RISC numbers once funding terms and cash waterfall agreed with the funding syndicate. And the equity raise prior to that, likely will be during the low sp drift between spud and FID declaration. Do manage expectations accordingly.

Offtaker doing 100% finance in this market? No way. Will check the sty next door to see if the pigs are flying!
This will be the first time ADV management will be looking for project finance after retiring from corporate. Their past life wont help them. My take its 50-50 (bear in mind the first million share i bought at 2.2p was purely on the back of their CV without reading project detail)

You can always sell instead of.... :)

Ps Grinch had a hard childhood, maybe LP had the same. Give them a break. ADV is non op, so they get dragged like a cow by the operator, not much they can do. Waiting game for 10x?

"Its a mugs game making targets on AIM shares - I think as usual its getting over exuberant here, with some posts comparing to Jadestone simply because it might have a peak of 20,000bopd, ignoring that this is a currently a single asset, non-operated company where the expected 2P will be 12.5million, where as Jadestone is producing 20,000bopd from about 70million 2P across a number of operated assets with at least a further double in 2C that is moving to development."

Very well put. And to add, this is ADV management's first ever gig together. They have no track record either in funding, development or production yet. There is potential for them to be successful hence why we are all here with what we can afford to invest but facts are facts. Don't ignore it.

Jezzac
If you see another 10 bagger potential, do share please.

NPV of what? Based on ? Commercial flow of oil. So until it flows.....

These are Sp targets when the reservoir flows commercial oil post development based on NAV. Not after appraisal well.
Unlikely its 1c but between 2c and 3c is my expectations (C convert to P once FID declared).

75 now to buy. Last discount for xmas. Cheaps are gone.

Oil and oilers markets are odds this am. Oil down, KIST up and I3E up both on the back of RNS. Lets hear it from ADV soonish.

Great news that they are in the process. Glad to see £4..

Morning @SI, @noeasy
I keep tabs on both the equity and debt market including frequent chats with offtakers and the tune have changed somewhat. Was it abrupt? Not really . The large European banks have already mentioned the change coming about a year + or so ago, mainly driven by ESG needs (cash attached to dirty industry therefore the need to balance their internal exposure).
I dont know the debt and equity markets in Aus or South East Asia.
The offtaker too have moved significantly. A year ago they would structure and finance 100% of requirement, but not today. It all went back to conventional and happy to syndicate on behalf of parties.
I would be so happy if they can get 30:70 but like the spud time (i alluded to end Dec some time ago as delays are normal especially awaiting for workover), i suspect those ratio will somewhat have moved today.
Happy (sincerely) to be proven wrong.

Thanks Wyn
As always grateful for your thoughts. Was about to punt £20k there but maybe i will wait a bit to see as you suggest.

Thank you.

I suspect the days of 70:30 debt:equity has passed, in Europe / UK anyway. Its more 60:40 or 50:50 these days. Lets see what the BoDs can muster

Thanks Wyn
As an aside (all this excitement!), can i ask your chart opinion on IAG ? Good punt chartwise today?

Added 200k shares. :) lets go, sp! Lets see 4+ again

Very good post EG. Enioyed reading that. Now to break 4p and beyond....

Not a bad post for your first one EnergyGeo.

No test is being planned. (And no cash set aside or budgeted too for that, correct).

Some of us have been busy buying the dip :))

Expected, added this morning at 3.8+. I think it might drop a bit more (will buy the dip). Time to go back to snooze

Nice few million shares SGF. Keep on posting.