Member Info for deepbluediver

Decided to pick up a tranche (small) at 258p this am

Good notes Shearclass. Thats helpful for my due dil. Grateful. Will share once i am done. £1.90+ might be a bit far off

Havent revised my charting yet to see FIB levels at this sp. Will do that at some point, this week or early next, and share it here, either from me or my lil bro.
From old charting, we have now breached the lower band of the sub channel (~298, we are 292 at the time of writing).
The main channel low at this point is just above 200. Bear in mind the channel and sub channels are in a downward direction so the bottom and top of these channels continue to drop over time unless there is a breakout (overall market needs a big push for growth stock to appreciate).

The news made my heart sink. Now wondering what 8am will look like in London when we opened. Asian markets are tanking.

Was considering investing into this share tomorrow but not sure now seeing @seekingtruth post (thanks for raising this)

Nice one @SNN. Thanks

Just had a quick look at the charts. I think (hope) the TGR rally is coming.
I suspect we will see a upwards breakout the latest by end of next week if not earlier. All tea leaves reading (so take it with a pinch of salt or dont at all) but enough to convince me to plan for top up tomorrow. Fundamentals are solid so hopefully no bad news to break the support line and move downwards.

GLA

Maybe it was reverse psychology .. haha.

We had a nice reverse breakout from a downward channel, hopefully we dont go below 3.7 again. 4.8p next then new ATH. Zak's 8.5 target by year end would nicely cap the year.
Might be some bumps along the way. GLA.

He bought more shares than i have!. Might stay put for a bit.

Not bad for picking up 500,000 shares yesterday. With warrant conversion + pre IPO and IPO shares, this is moving to my top 5 shares now.

Dai
Is that Npv?
I havent looked at it yet but to do it, amongst others and at the very least you will need (Year on year, annual or monthly, from now to post decomm):
1. Opex forecast - O&M, tariffs etc
2. Production forecast
3. Capex / cash calls
4. Forward strip for gas price (ok this easy)
5. Liability
6. Debt payment schedule
7. Tax losses
8. G&A

Analyst would be privvy to these dataset so likely they have the right calcs inputs. Argument will be on forward strip used, risking if any etc - none was shared by the analysts.

How did you do yours?

Great entry point if you are not yet in. ~50% return to AA and gang's big bonus target.
I should have sold all at 450p.... grrrrr

Some of us didnt sell any since IPO, converted warrants, and still adding shares at this price.

And another 100k shares.

D2B
Not sure. Let me have a look at their website on investor section and revert.

Two approaches; full blown DCF or approximation, depending on what data is available to PI's like us. Will get back soonest

Chaps
We are in early Feb. Still long way to go to see where the co will be by year end. Deals are aplenty for company upside and the latest target transaction gives the company a solid CF foundation.
All the analyst are doing is point us to a view at a particular time , under particular assumptions.
Quick question - whats the forward strip used by these analyst vs actual sales? Q1 forward strip is far off actual sales ticket and likely Q2 forward strip will be uprated (did any of you see the bullrun on oil last Friday at 6.30pm? I was lucky enough to see it live whilst explaining to my son how to set a CFD position on Brent.)

Sounds like KIST has better KPIs than Serica.
Stay put.

Just added 200k shares over 2 tranches this morning. GLA.

Added about 1mm shares to my already bulging pf on TM1. Time to sleep on this share to xmas. GLA.

@ Dai
In my personal view for my own personal mind, Steve West (CFO) will need to balance on how much debt to raise and time to pay, especially if they are looking at another deal on the back of the first one like RRE or KIST and use deal 1 for leverage for on deal 2.
Its still possible for them to do another debt + equity for deal 2 independently (without leveraging deal 1) but they will miss the sweet spot for growth in this oil price environment. Compounding is key for growth.
therefore, my take is I would like to see a substantive equity raised from II and potentially PI, anywhere between 30-50% (or more) on the first production deal, (if there is still a live deal on their hands). market is moving fast on M&A at the current oil prices.
Else, if too much debt is raised for deal 1, sp will still jump in my opinion but the company becomes an "oil price play", I might as well go long on oil price (Brent for example), which I am already doing with modest success so cant see the point of buying more ADV shares. What they decide to do on the first deal will dictate whether I hold for growth or sell on news.