Member Info for deepbluediver

Well said @noeasy.

LP's departure is a sacrificial lamb offering in my view, as CEO the buck stops with him.
Hopefully the board would have learned their lessons now and take the company forward. Deal will take some time, 6-9 months (min) to completion.

For a production deal, it will be debt + equity. They will need equity to get debt. There is no going around this. Nevertheless, i added a solid 7 figures this am, same as my initial investment at 2.2p before (purely based on their CV).

GLA.

Company is making the right noises. I am back in and happy to wait to Dec.

@Bradley
Yes. He was keen to see my pf and decided (on his own accord) to dive into ADV. Him and a few others. I suppose, people do what they want with their own money

@SI
I have always seen TGR as less risky investment than ADV (for example) and have built a much bigger position in TGR than i ever had in ADV. Simply, they are closer to a revenue event (still could be hiccups along the way but thats to be expected). Glad i added quite a lot sub 70 and continue to top up until yesterday. Might add more today if i get some chunks from CFD on Brent today.
Do we need a raise? If yes, might be better off doing it before the next correction or crash happens. A better option is to focus on revenue generation, pronto. Then leverage cashflow for debt for the next phase.

I too did suggest some friends and my bank manager to buy the shares which they did at <2.6p. Only problem is no one listened when i suggested to derisk and take profit at 4.2 and 4.4p. My bank manager was the most stubborn of them all. I haven't spoken to him since the crash but i have started to look for a new bank and move on.

On hindsight, maybe it got done a bit along with the general tech and growth company sell off. Looks like its coming back up.

Tax losses are worth 10-20p per £ at best. So £800k at most.

@Dai
Ive come across this field. It was doing the rounds many moons back.

Quick read of the doc:
Upside:
1. Near term production if they can get the contract in place and kick off production in time. They didnt say when they expect 1st oil, only when ops for development may start. But its only 1+2 land wells with a small facilities planned for so ~ 12 months (?) or thereabouts ?
2. First (early) movers advantage
3. Upside in their licenses in addition to their base case
4. Motivated commodity buyer
5. Funds already raised for development.
6. Heron base only sp target of 10.1p is great (2x relative to now) at the oil price used.

Downside:
1. Location
2. Supply chain access (cost will be high and index is shooting up)
3. Trucking (cost, distance, capacity of storage)
4. Uptime will be impacted by item 3
5. Can they manage the development cost without it spiralling?
6. Their sp just tanked, liked a lot of things this afternoon (VIX shot up to 30 so no surprises there)

I suspect if you want in, the entry point is coming soon. It might just touch 3-3.2. But who knows.

I wont invest at the moment but might dip in a small amount as a marker and monitor (thanks for the heads up Dai). I suspect the sp might move sideways until contracts signed and ops plan kicks off. So there could other entry points. But overall i am not keen to invest due to location and challenges it comes with, i am a bit more risk averse at the moment seeing how VIX shot up to 30 this afternoon.

@dai
Yes please, do share.
I had a few CEO's of oil co start ups (with assets, development mainly) approaching me for seed fund last quarter, i said no to all.

@dai
Thanks for that, i had a quick read. Scary outcome, the guy got diluted everytime it became a shell, twice. And the dilution--
1:400, then 1: 236.

Yikes.

"There will be new equity raise should they decide to pursue a production deal / RTO".

Typo. Bloody phone...

@SI
Agree with most of your point, but for debt financing on a producing asset they will require equity, 30-40%, in order to leverage debt for the remainder.
There will be new equity raise.l should they decide to pursue a production deal / RTO

@Dai
My thoughts too.
Just to share where my head is at the moment , after running through my ADV share history and mulling over @SI's point of view yesterday, and without repeating what other posters has said,:
1. There is still cash to burn to P&A the current well as its not a keeper. You will recall this well was drilled as a keeper, i feel its less likely to be so now. Lets wait for confirmation one way or another. I suspect the P&A will eat up whatever cash is left, its likely to be around the 2-3MM mark at 100%. Near zero cash after liability is not great. I dont know whether its 50:50 split to decomm or will they pick it the tab themselves. I suspect its the former.
2. Ive sold >80% of my shares along the way (derisk, profit taking) and the bulk of the remaining shares were sold yesterday and this am, leaving only 100 000 - less than 2% of my total left. I left this amount as a "marker", see item 3.
3. Mulling to buy 10MM shares should ADV plan to be a new shell, with new strategy (early entry) but it will be in competition with TGR and TM1 which i plan to top up at some point. I won't move until i get comfort from LP etc and provided the new strategy is solid. ( I am a fan of production deal with upside opportunities. Like KIST ). I also still like the management team, although they are marmite now to the market.

All in all, i am waiting for news to decide what to do. Hard to make a decision at the moment. But cash is ready to be deployed should the new narrative is solid. A lot of posters are buying now, i suspect they are better experienced and can manage the risk better than me or most. SI did the same and he is more experienced than me.

But money tree is available to invest if they turn this around. (As @renroc mentioned, to stick or twist). My 2 cents if its even that. GL @ Dai. Hope SGF is fine too

Dai
CVN has better prospects elsewhere, theyve made it clear its the end for them. This well in Buffalo was drilled using ADV money only at 100%. CVN is not cash rich, they have zero production.

Darktrace has a different problem, hedgies taking a big short position. Not ONT i think, i might be wrong

Added 1500 shares but money tree is drying. Sp next to move up.. sigh :(

Thanks @SI. good to have your view, i didnt thought of it as a shell but indeed it could get a new life.

@bladey
Yes i agree with "there is oil left" based on historical production analyses (forward decline and pressurisation). Purely on first principle they would have seen resegregation and resaturation. Plenty of prematurely abandoned fields in North Sea exhibit that.
Something is amiss with this result - i wondered if they had miss the optimal drill spot rather than poor reservoir or lack of oil.

Be mindful they found a 12m column (gross). Net oil column will be a lot less than 12m.
Unless they can pull a trick out of the bag, Buffalo is dead.
The deals they were working on likely are dead.
They will need a new deal and a capital raise to keep this alive.