Member Info for deepbluediver

yes, here.... waiting for some news actually

I am a short term holder on IAG so went back in today at 145.... great price (thanks to all the panic sellers!). Let's see what happens next. I am buying and holding until SP gets back to 170 mark (whenever that happens).

did the same although was a bit late to the party so bought some at 130.5. it can only go up (at some point, well its already up at 143 now).

Its a forum to share thoughts. Plenty of fantasist who shouts 300B ..30B market value trying to artificially inflate expectations. Need some balance.

If we just want to quote the RNS or the presentation material rather than own view, here is what their presentation says:
page 11:
Best-Estimate Unrisked Prospective Recoverable Helium Resource (2U/P50): 138Bcf
Risked Prospective Recoverable Helium Resource (2U/P50): 14.0Bcf
So the reserve certifiers have risked it down to 14 Bcf on a 2U/ P50 classification. that's a big risking factor but understandably at this early stage of exploration / appraisal. no point focusing on Unrisked numbers.

Page 14 illustrates their valuation pre listing:
Attis Consideration £1,763,799 12.5% [valuation of shell company on AIM HE1 reversed into]
Helium One Consideration £5,988,834 42.3% [this is what city valued them - the project and IP at this stage before funding and listing. this is fundamental]
Capital raise £6,000,000 42.4% [new funding money to take them to next stage]
Fee Shares £400,586 2.8% [nice and chunky]
Enlarged Group £14,156,943 100.0%

For holders, looking at the value now, and where it could be, even on a conservative estimate which I put, the multiple on money is >6x over a 4-7 year period before upsides and subject to various caveats. that's pretty good considering PE expects a min return of 2x - 4x their money over a 3-5 (sometimes 7) year horizon.

that is why I still believe its a great share to hold, long. sentiments will always play, but fundamentals are there and so is risk especially at this early stage but you do get huge multiples if the business plan works and you invest now. shorters will want volatility.

ouch, that's some response coming back. no negatives intended chaps...

mmm.. trucking gas to sale point, maybe. but even more costly. it doesn't negate the fact you still need to transfer the gas from well heads to processing plant.

how else would they gather the gas from the wells to gathering station and on towards the processing plant? back of a camel?

I own quite a lot of this share and have done my own research. please do your own. to share my thinking:
1. there is no debt without equity - co will need to raise cash to match debt for plant
2. more cash will be needed to drill wells, pipelines. I will come back on this point
3. OPEX cost on processing
4. He concentration is likely around 1%-5% (more?), therefore from an estimated ~300 bcf volume, and assuming 80% of it can be produced, we are left with 2.4 - 12 bcf of He, giving roughly a gross revenue of $240MM -$1.2B USD (assuming price of $100/kcf of helium, its likely closer to 120/kcf at the moment based on USGS.GOV but never mind).
5. coming back to item (2), there are two ways the Co can get the wells and pipelined financed -either raise equity and match it with debt, or get other parties to cover the cost in return for a slice of the license. Lets say cash is raised for simplicity, lets say we need 6 wells to produce 240 bcf volumes (40 bcf per well, which is pretty good going), each well will costs around $10-15MM, so that $60-$90MM, pipeline cost is another $50MM, add OPEX to it (usually double but lets call it 50% of OPEX over life of the development), total CAPEX & OPEX will eat between $165-$210MM...
6. over an assumed 10 year development life, (with simple time function discounting), market value is probably between $11MM to $147MM, depending on outcome of drill and sampling results, but before cost of borrowing, which may include upside on equity share.
7. if concentration is 10%, then of course the value is up at over $300MM with but consider cost of money (suggest take half off). therefore my view the value is up to $150MM subject to field success. fair value (today) therefore is between $7.5MM-$30MM, the higher end takes into account market sentiment.
8. seepage is a good and bad thing; great proof on surface but it also means its leaked. therefore the volumes might not be there.
9. we are probably 4-5 years away from first production and that's fast - taking into account the need for appraisal, concept select, field development plan, environmental evaluation, approvals, long leads, and actual development work.

-Please do your own research-

bottled this morning and sold at 165 (bought it at 164) hoping i could pick up bargains today with the cash... lets see

Sold all at 175 but bought some yesterday from the profits made. I wanted to sell today but decided against it in the end. SP had an interesting rally towards noon before it slowly fizzled down - sentiment on Bojo's dinner date tonight I assume. if it drops to 160 before market shuts I will top up.

@tradingplaces69 best of luck for today. 171 seems possible - I might join you and see whether i can pick up some lunch money too. i am mulling to exit at either 170 or 172.... got in at 164 yesterday following @wasu .

@ wasu I did. got in at 164 yesterday.

@wasu agree. its hold for a bit for me now, I used all the profits from last "sell" to buy new shares today.... will dip in more but maybe see how the trend pans out.... will share on here of course.

on a more wider discussion point here - I am not bothered with short traders or long - so long as we (try our best) to make money and keep the family sorted, that's the most important thing. do share tips and thoughts. good luck to everyone

triggered at 164 and up already, by just by a whisker.... worried its going to go down to 160 now.. :( its all sentiments in the next short period

looking forward to this share going up. Good business idea, good target, good location.. seismic work should give us a first indication but the drilling and sampling is what will make or break the shares. fingers crossed. bought a lot at 4.5p. its looking good at the moment but far still to rise if you believe the thesis.

waiting at 164 to buy back a portion of what i sold last week.... fingers, toes all crossed.

Well done Wasu. I sold all mine too today, not as big a margin as you but very happy indeed. Sold at 175 with average price at 114.. likely all proceeds will be ploughed back in Jan / Feb when / if it dips. hopefully IAG will hit 220+ in summer 2021.

Sold mine @175 today. very happy. I reckon a market push to 180 /185 before the shares drop over Dec / Jan / Feb followed by an upward trend towards 200. good luck everyone.