Member Info for deepbluediver

upside to being in Rift valley:

forget about Rukwa etc etc, the success of the drill will be akin to finding a new basin across Rift, and we all know what it means for first movers..... remember when oil was discovered in UK / Norway back in the late 70s? the boom reverberated a whole century thereafter. Now, simply decide if you want to be part of one of the most exciting 21st century find, or just read it in the newspaper and ask yourself "what if". DYOR.

"In a bizarre sort of way, it is the ultimate nonrenewable element, and at the moment, it is not replaceable for many applications, certainly for medical systems such as MRI scanners," Gluyas said." https://www.livescience.com/55204-huge-cache-of-ancient-helium-discovered.html

I will add to the ramp - taking Dai2belts baton onward..
1. the fact there is gas seeps mean the probability of having He in the reservoir is high. however, the trap and containment factor will be low at this point until drill. see point 2.
2. seeps are likely through fissures / faults, this is likely to be small amounts. if its large, we will see large pockmarks at location and gas plumes from seismic. even then it doesn't mean all of the He has been released. Plus, I havent seen any of those being mentioned. seeps are normal.

Here is another link that gave me even more comfort:
https://www.livescience.com/55204-huge-cache-of-ancient-helium-discovered.html

"One of the project leaders, geologist Jon Gluyas of Durham University, told Live Science that although the Tanzania gas field is large, it's only a small part of what the entire Rift Valley area may contain. "So it could be substantially larger," Gluyas said. "We will still have a lot of data to collect to be really confident, but yes — this is a globally significant discovery."

Gluyas is a proper legend... full stop. DYOR

I know the feeling... I regretted not using my ISA to wrap up at 8.9p dip on 7th Apr.. now, i would eat my arm off to buy it at 9.5p if it ever falls that low.
If the chart indicators are right (tea leaves prediction anyone?), we might get a change to top up over a short dip here and there once traders take some profits .. maybe back at 9.5.... i won't hold my breathe though as i think this ship have sailed already towards 20p and beyond. sub 10p might be a thing of the past now. like dial up modems.

@dai2belts - here is a quick ultra snapshot summary:

The supply chain generally has been in and out of "skin in game" business model for some time now, generally it follows the commodity cycle. Let me just touch on the most recent cycles instead of from the 80s and 90s which was peppered with failure:
1. late 2009-2014, some pushed to 2016: the skin in the game model got severely stretched from very light (risking services, or just profits) to stepping on the toes of operators. Several large supply chain companies actually went to market advertising they would invest in projects with both cash and services in lieu of a share of production (rather than paid normally , one off, as services). This was not limited to wells, but actually taking over the whole field, developing it and managing it on behalf of the operators. The level of due diligence conducted for approval conducted by services company is at par or surpasses operating companies in some cases (out of their normal comfort zone). Whilst this all sounded positive, it had its drawback :
1. some consternation in the industry itself as there was an overlap between the role of operators and services co.
2. push back by analyst and investors who were struggling to on valuation of those services co. (i see similar issue with oil companies today who cant decide if they are green or dirty. The ones who did well are Orsted / Dong Energy - full transformation).

this cycle of overstretched skin in the game came to a halt in 2016 with closure of almost all of the large projects globally during the bear period.

In the current cycle (2021, start of a new bull cycle), i noticed supply chains generally have stopped marketing but still offering it to trusted clients. However, the depth of skin in the game are limited, for example, only risking profits, or to an extent, shared risks and upside (but one off payments rather than shared revenues or profits). The level of due diligence in such a case, understandably, is still very detailed but not as wide a scope as when you have full skin in the game.

Anyhow in all cases, I have never seen a service company offering skin in the game - whether thats risked payment or in lieu of shares unless they are confident they will get their money back, plus more.

Numpty back, still p'ed off I havent hit my million shares milestone on HE1. Anyhow... some thoughts on the discussions to share. Please DYOR and don't believe anything I write..

1. Firstly Mitchell are not the only game in town to take skin in the game. Supply chain companies who are open to skin in the game would have done their DD, and feel confident prior to accepting it. If not, they wont. Supply chain in general however have moved on from this as they got burnt during the last cycle so Mitchell's must feel confident from their own DD to still accept the business model in this project.
2. CoS - very simple term mathematically (and many ways to do it, for example, weighted vs unweighted) but can be misleading and confusing. An exploration CoS takes into account the probability of several terms for example, probability of Source, of Migration, of Trap, of Containment (sometimes you can also see Reservoir term but lets leave it out for simplicity).
Lets use an example, say we give each term a 70% probability - none of the terms can be 100% at exploration phase, 70% is pretty good. So, that's 70% probability each on "Source", "Migration", "Trap" and "Containment". In the most simplest math (no weighting), the overall CoS in aggregate is 0.241. (70% x 70% x 70% x 70%). So the aggregate can be low even though each term on its own is 70%. To bring the aggregate CoS down to ~0.2, all you need is to have two terms at 0.65 (65%), rest at 70% PoS if you consider only 4 parameters. In general cases where 5 parameters are considered instead of 4, then each parameter will need higher value (>0.7 or >70% probability) to bring the aggregate down to 0.2 (20%)

Please DYOR

quite a bit of share dumping in the last 30 mins. although, buy volumes are greater. might wait a bit to see if it dips just a tiny little bit during the day. hit and miss i think to try and time this - i might not get any dips! feeling like a muppet this morning.

a bit dissapointed it went up so quick, was about to put 20k this morning in for my 21/22 ISA to bring it to a million shares.... i am 35000 short @ 9.27p / share !!! damn. it could have stayed at 8p just this morning and let me get my milestone..... hahahaha

@Golfgains
issue with 2D is clarity - especially faults may be difficult to "see" particularly if smaller ones are present - this has ramifications on development plans (eg how many wells is required to access the He and how to drill a well).

there are two major advancements in the realm of seismic;
1. interpretation method - even on old seismic, new interpretation methods gives substantial improvement
2. data acquisition method and type
therefore yes is the answer to your query - a good overhaul.

here in the US, (same as UK, Norway) there is substantial activity on item 1, being applied to old age seismic and it does give better results including target location for wells (both appraisal and development wells).

@Dai apologies for the long sentences.. agree, i wouldnt mind editing my response earlier slightly to give alternatives on appraisal wells strategies. I will draft something and share but unlikely today.

@dai thank you for keeping the bb active, havent popped in here for some time and just saw a whole heap of discussions going. all good stuff. and good questions raised.

I am a LTH so take your fill as you want to, or none at all - but i will try and give my views in normal, non tech lingo. Please DYOR as i have stated in the past, I am a numpty.

seismic and number of exploration wells:
there are no heat map produced from seismic. in its most simplistic explanation, imagine a sound wave (from a source) travelling through multiple medium and reflects back at different frequency. this is what is being read (receiver). as you can imagine, there will be a lot of noise when this reflections get picked up which requires "cleaning." this process is very mature and there are different quality of source and interpretation methods that can be applied. it does sound quite scary but its a trialed and tested successful method. 3D is better than 2D for obvious reasons.
So now that they have a map built up from different seismic vintages and responses (to improve their interpretation), they have a geo model which is littered with uncertainties, they will need to reduce it. Rock physics will tell them likely fluid types present in the accumulation to an extent. the main uncertainty would be:
1. the extent of the accumulation / reservoir (its not a box filled with He or other gases / fluids, they sit in the pore space of rocks, all pressured up). To reduce the uncertainty of reservoir extension (to get volume in place firmed up), you need to drill wells. now you can drill 1 well only, but then you might miss the lateral extension and the true size of the field. Sometimes, you aim to drill at the proposed edge, and in this case, both failure and success can be deemed valuable as it tightens the number (volume) up. We may also want to drill one in the crest, just to prove presence and do a well test to understand
1. flow potential
2. take samples to QC samples
3. run the well test long enough to check the extent of reservoir boundary

so the more wells you can drill as cheaply in the early stage the better it is, and failure in one well does not mean failure of the project, it could just mean they are testing an outer edge to confirm presence of He up to P10 level. for example.

3 (firm) +1 (contingent) wells is great news - which means they will be better at reducing uncertainties. my bet with the contingent well would either be as a back up (just in case one of the firm well planned encounters problem) or testing the outer edges of assumed parameters.

still, lots of risks at this stage. i wont comment on seep presence and how does this correlate with caprock, overburdens, etc but if they do share the interpretation, one thing to look for is leakage / plume which should show clearly in 3D seismic. similarly, presence of pock marks on surfaces would indicate a sudden & large release. otherwise, it could be just small leaks through leaky

nuri i agree.. I have a strong view that SAAS in general will only go downhill, but still, there is profit here and there to be made over short cycle of trading.

sold at 284 :)

i've just started a new round of (planned) day trading this am, just over 5000 shares averaging a shave over 279. This of course could go south and wipe out any profits made from yesterday.. lets see how the wind blows.

Good on IG to trade since yesterday... and today ....

@toff
Look, some of us banked a few grand worth of profit today trading ROO and you don't see us calling unfortunate bagholders stupid. Did you even dabble? or just here to trumpet your poison? There is no need to be condescending to the unlucky ones , it might be you next. .. I know its easy to do it hiding behind your laptop right? just like a real coward would, right?

at least @ pictland is laying his thoughts without calling anyone stupid. i respect that, as everyone should be free to share their view on particular shares. but calling people buying shares as "stupid"?.

at the end of the day, everyone is trying to make some money to improve their lives.

yea, except we are lacking apes with diamond hands here .. better ordering tendies from KFC via the Deliveroo app. much better value at the moment....
saying that, its been not a bad day today on this sp - on my 4th buy and sell already.... need £1k profit to cover the £998.40 i stupidly paid for pre IPO subscription.

i am buying and selling today to cover the possible lost of my allocation when it arrives in my account (next week?)..... what a muppet - I was so adamant not wanting to subscribe pre IPO then stupidity kicks a few days back (FOMO that is) and now regretting it. spending time now building up profit trading today on this share to cover upcoming potential losses. DYOR and don't follow my absurd and daft plans.

Its been a wonderful week buying and selling shares of TP - I am now on my third cycle and its not even been a week yet. It is however getting a bit tiring and perhaps move towards investing. Does anyone know, or can hazard a guess of what is a good target sp for this share? Googling didnt seem to bring much info up. thanks

Dunbot, not sure what you mean but the ticker is on IG etc since listing.

the risked value (14.04 bcf), not unrisked volume (138 bcf), would have factored in the CoS @ 20% (in addition to many other uncertainties to get to a risked volume). if you want to be sensible and cautious, run your evaluation at the risked volume or lower .
At the end of the day, its your money therefore the risking is something you should consider carefully as it impacts your valuation and therefore fair value sp should different probability of events occur.

i ran mine at lower than 13 bcf and have continued to buy and top up since listing day (and havent sold a single share). DYOR

@takayama you think it too early to dip in today? i trust your thinking.