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If you own a few MM shares from early days, didnt derisk and Tai -1 happened, i suspect you probably want to take the opportunity to derisk a bit now.. so my guess is thats what is happening.
Spudton
good challenge indeed, it made me look back at the Tennyson paper publish in Apr 21:
https://www.advanceplc.com/media/1081/210420_recipe-for-success-2.pdf
confusing enough if we just take this bit:
"We value barrels in the ground at US$12.2/bbl, implying net unrisked value of US$209m (12.6p/shr). After accounting for corporate adjustments and project risks (factoring in future dilution etc.) this leads to a risked Total NAV of 8.0p/shr –
over 3x the current share price. "
Reading further especially page 7:
Based on a flat oil price assumption of US$60/bbl, during the first full year our model suggests gross annual cash flow of c.US$375m net to the contractors (US$187m net to 50% interest). Due to its exceptional reservoir productivity, the field cash flows decline relatively sharply, with all c.US$840m of project cash flow recovered over a five-year period (see contractor cash flow profile in Figure 7). This results in an impressive project IRR of 106%, with gross NPV10 of US$418m (US$12.2/bbl). At 50% interest, this is worth c.US$209m unrisked, or 12.6p/shr net to Advance. Our NPV includes a geological risking of 95% as well as a commercial risking of 50% predominantly to account for future dilution in raising the US$35-40m of equity to finance the full development. After accounting for cash, and proceeds from the exercising of near money options and warrants, we calculate a risked Total NAV of US$132m, or 8p/shr.
so the 8-12.6p is target sp post production (based on re-reading) taking into account the two risking factor (including money/ commercial at 50% on top of geological risk which is minimal).
Thanks again for the challenge, much appreciated.
SGF
my thoughts too.... hmm... oh well, waiting game now (a bit more dry but nervous whether i should jump in or not for more!)
sorry, 14.74p.... :) 114.74p would have been great for HE1 SP!
added at 114.74p, what is happening?
impossible to add/ buy the last 30 mins, literally managed a bite 5 mins before close...
or motoring like my bus no. 38 from Victoria Station to Green Park every Monday morning at 7 am....
ShareInvestment, well put. i can't agree more.
I added 250,000 shares at 3.1545 p 15 mins before the close.
bumping J-Bravo's post - speaks my language.
Wyn
seeing where the sp is today and heading, i just wanted to say thank you (sincerely) for the tip on buying back in.
Bump for Mr Benson.
--
Best to read analyst report too.
Ps: touching 5mm shares now .
Please DYOR
@SGF
tested (no buy), 14.51p... so thats my day wrapped before the bell.... good day all... tomorrow, another day.
Mike, thats odd, but not the first time i heard of it. someone (or a few of us) did explain why it could be so some time ago, (not me, as I dont know much about the ongoings, Harpmandoodle might know). Anyway, so long as the shares sit in my account :)
Glib
HL is also fine, got a quote to buy at 14.484p (I picked up 124 shares as my funds are dry on HL, its all taken up)
SGF,
that 124 additional shares will be the decider in the end!
glib
I am still good for buying HE1 shares on my IG accounts (my wife said the same too, she's been busy today). Haven't looked at my HL yet (let me look)
ok fine, last 25k shares @ 14.5899p for today... one for the road, for good health... ... :)
75000 buy at 14.3974p
Mr B
Somewhere on here i did a review of the CPR. I will try and find it then bump it.
To give you an idea, i have about 4x more shares here than HE1, due to the nature of the asset and milestone 1 of the share price target. The 12p is for success at appraisal, at 95% CoS. In a nutshell, the aquifer is strong, i expect we will be back up at virgin pressure therefore i expect the appraisal to beat CPR / analyst view for appraisal
Wyn
I will just listen to you guys next and stopped my feeble attempts! focus back on my core science and engineering.
Wyn
Can you (as before) let me know when is a good time again to dip my toes into the shares please? SGF is doing my nut in with 3MM HE1 shares, I cant let him fly too far away ... :)
shoot, I screwed up. I looked at the 1hr chart not daily. (serves me right attempting TA!) Where is Wyn, Joshwaa, Glib and Marik when you need them :)