Member Info for Deeko19

Good point on the asset sale!

I’ll go back and look but I think the difference is we’re looking at averages vs spot rate.

20,000 x0.66 + 23,000x0.33 = ~20,750 boe average. But the spot rate, and the rate taken into 2026 would be 23,000 boe

On the flip side, It’s hard to see how opex costs can go up vs remaining at least flat. Especially for an infill well into an existing field which already has all the infrastructure in place and, by Jadestones own admission, low production chemistry issues. The opex cost must go down because there is more rate through an already paid for facility.

Yeah ofcourse,

H1 cost per boe x H1 production x 2

The above / (H1 production + 3000 boe).

Full year revenue was H1 production + 3000 x assumed price of 70

I personally don’t see a net debt of ~45-50 million as difficult to pay down. Particularly when considering the revenue minus opex costs. Happy to be wrong.

Why do you feel this isn’t a healthy level of debt? I think the old guard such as Tullow have unhealthy levels of debt $1 billion+ with just under double the production rate but I’m happy with Jadestones level personallly

This is an exaggerated example to make the point but the headline figure of a deal is always substantially lower on transfer is my point

You would be surprised at what’s affordable, typically a deal would be worked from an effective date. The transfer of asset is typically 6-9 months post that date due to the fact that M&A is just a slow process with regulatory approval etc.

Example would be:

3000 boe @ $40 (already removed opex and other costs) per boe produced.

Assume 1 year post deal date. The asset produces $43,800,000

Assume a total deal price of $40,000,000

The seller would transfer a net cash value to the buyer of $3,800,000

-usually deals like this are done for other reasons than the seller needs the cash. Decom liability, capex priorities, reducing staff but the buyer is obviously now liable for the asset.

Quirky industry really which is why I never understood why LBE couldn’t do anything with $100 million.

Big numbers for Seascape!

Just been rooting around, JSE need to find $770 million for decom of Montara, Stag and Skua. Only $190 million has been set aside for this.

Opex doubled in 2024 due to the integrity issues

COP was 2029. Now 2030 with Skua online.

If it wasn’t for that. I’d be jumping all over JSE myself

Asset name is Montara.

I was actually invested in JSE just after the Montara issues. Bought in dirt cheap but it never truly recovered because the story went from very bad to just bad.

Shame because they have great asset in SEA but the Montara FPSO feels like an accident waiting to happen. Oil spills, integrity issues, having to bring in barges due to cargo tank failures, rising opex etc. I believe there was talk about replacing it at one stage at a cost of 100’s of millions.

Interesting how they no longer refer to it in RNS’s and no just mention the Skua well instead. If this is ever resolve the issue it would be worth taking a look.

Zengas,

JSE appear to be at a huge value gap but there is a reason for that.

The Australia assets (name escapes me now) are basically falling apparent with substantial integrity issues. Operating at barely breaking even and required substantial decom. Last I checked which was a while ago, end of life had been brought forward massively and the decom costs were huge.

That’s the reason I had for the value gap. If they didn’t have issues with these fields I’d suspect they would be sitting at 400-500 Million Mcap

Tullow has been absolutely destroyed by both Rahul and whatever the new CEO is called. Completely visionless between the lot of them.

The strategy set in 2020/21 of focusing drilling on an aging field and selling off assets was always going to lead to diminishing production.

Who knows, maybe Paul’s Afren will come in in pick the remaining meat off the bones of a once great company

Indeed! I thought it added a little more excitement to the sentence!

Nah, bloody fat fingers and spell check as usual. When you don’t want it to change a word, it changes it. When you do, it seems to develop selective blindness.

Ohh also,

Temaris farm out. If the CPR is as good as I expect then there may be a sizeable cash injection on the farm out of discovered resources.

Currently Temaris is 42 MMboe. Without a CPR upgrade, a 50% farmdown is worth $21 million at $1 per boe…

Again Total bought Sakura at $4 per boe.

Easily $10 million in the coffers with no CPR upgrade

My hit list is as follows;

2A firm well date - imminent awaiting details from Inpex

DEWA FDP - awaiting details from Enquest

Temaris FDP - key focus for us

CPR upgrades - due imminently and presumably should be v.good news (my opinion only) based on DEWA presentations showing step out exploration and Temaris structures that have already been identified on the block (which look larger that the discovered fields).

My opinion only: but Temaris looks to be a game changer in itself.

Any further activity. Again personally looking towards an acquisition.

Petrofac PM304 license expires this year. Currently a late life field producing 2500 boe net to Petrofac. Petrofac have already declared Malaysia as an area they want to exit and had no success with the sale of the block, given their financial position I do wonder if this will be the first producing field Seascape acquire?

Mcap still below the cost of a low CoS sexploration well in Norway/NS

Yep, fully agreed.

Just highlighting how cheap it is!

How I view Seascape is as follows;

If a company wanted to make a strategic pivot to South east Asia (which many will due to regulation across Europe). The can either:

A) start fresh, enter license rounds etc

B) purchase a vehicle already set up to exploit this, with managers already in place to exploit the connections

A company with cash will do the latter, its histories ally how majors and minors have expanded their regions.

So how much are they paying is the question.

Let’s assume $1 per Boe (serious low ball number) of 2C which is approx $60 million

10 cents on the exploration which is $17 million from Kertang

Plus intangibles, I.e the management that have been in the region for decades and bring the connection. Assume $10 million

Plus $10 million cash and no debt

I make that $97 million. Or £72 million pounds

Minimum I’d accept before selling is £1.2 and that’s based off low ball numbers. Honestly people don’t realise what they have here.

Obviously as time goes on, the company becomes more valuable. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some takeover bidders coming in sooner rather than later here

Total paid $4 per boe of mainly development assets.

Seascape has ~60 MMboe of 2C reserves. Feels cheap cheap to me

Noted the latest presentation, Temaris CPR is for contingent & prospective reserves.

Let that sink in for a second. They’ve identified several similar structures, historically calibrated to existing discoveries and will be assessing the nearby structure volume potential. Temaris is already 42 MMboe recoverable. Companies are paying upwards of $50 million per well to drill and appraise targets like this!

It has a Norway’esk feel to this block, whereby the step out potential from nearby discoveries may be huge.

When asked why the other structures (which look larger than Tembakau on the map) were not already tested, Pierre aptly noted… because the previous operator didn’t own that part of the block.

Anyway, the CPR for Temaris shouldn’t be downplayed and will no doubt be a substantial bargaining chip during the farm out. 250 BCF with potential for 500/750 BCF is a substantial prize in a basin packed with export routes.

And that’s all before award of the adjacent license which should be in the bag give we’ll have shown a vested interest, mapped targets etc etc.

Finally, also noted on the presentation ‘potential to establish a third core area’ - suggest an application has been submitted for something. Sabah, Brunei. Maybe even Vietnam or Indonesia. Exciting times awaiT

Anyone got an idea why? Potential big buyer following the investor meeting?

Seems strange that they haven’t moved the price though?

Honestly last one:

That also excludes the exploration upside on the Kertang block. There were several other Kertang’esk structures located on the block. This could honestly be the stock that everyone looks back at in 5 years and says ‘how did this one go so under the radar’… the answer is because your chasing rainbows rather than value!

Just to note actually, Total purchased Sapura at $4 per boe on development assets mainly. Kertangs most likely case of 170,000,000 boe (if it comes in) using the Total benchmark price would be worth $680,000,000 alone.

Upside case is more than double that number from memory.