RE: Impairment not good news3 Feb 2026 08:37
I’m not sure what’s so disappointing here?
My interpretation of these results are;
H1 vs FY (and what that implies for H2)
Production
• H1: 20,368 boe/d
• FY: 19,829 boe/d (sale of simphorn and Montara shut down for weeks the Skua start-up and commissioning)
• Implied H2: ~19,299 boe/d (so H2 ran lower than H1, by ~1.1k boe/d but again, sale of an asset and total production shut down + any other down time post start-up)
Oil price
• H1 realised oil: $77.45/bbl
• FY realised oil: $74.42/bbl
So H2 pricing was weaker than H1 on average.
Revenue (post-hedge)
• H1: $228.3m
• FY: $408.1m
• Implied H2: $179.8m (lower price environment and production shut downs)
Production costs
• H1: $114.6m
• FY: $243.0m (low end of $240–280m guidance)
• Implied H2: $128.4m
Capex
• H1: $69.4m
• FY: $112.7m (in $105–115m guidance)
• Implied H2: $43.3m (front-loaded year, big spend already done) if Skua had came in at original target debt would be closer to $40 million, unfortunately Jadestone don’t control the weather.
Debt / net debt
• Net debt 30 Jun: $107.7m (cash $59m, debt $166.7m)
• Net debt 31 Dec: $89.0m (cash $61m, debt $150m)
• FY net debt excludes $23.7m of Dec liftings received early 2026 so really net debt of $63 million
• $30m working capital facility undrawn
What’s good
• They hit guidance on production, opex and capex.
• Despite weaker oil vs H1, they still delivered FY revenue growth and costs at the low end.
• They paid down gross debt ($166.7m to $150m) and net debt is flattered further once the $23.7m cash receipt lands.
Watch-outs / “shockers”
• H2 run-rate production was lower than H1 (implied ~19.3k boe/d). But again, will include shut downs and any unrelated downtime across assets.
• They’ve pre-warned a non-cash impairment due to lower price outlook. But for me that’s just accounting, reserves move with the price deck so they’ll dip in and out with time.
• FY update gives no Skua rate. But for Charlie to imply it was 6,000 and has now fell off a cliff is just spinning doomsday scinario IMO. It was clearly stated that was an initial rate only and the stabilised rate was much lower.
Bottom line: not a disaster RNS some are trying to make it out to be. The real question is what end-Feb reserves + 2026 guidance says about production. Happy enough with the update but feel Mitch could be doing more to sell the story here
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