Member Info for Deeko19

Bailiff, think you’ll find the V shape recovery is actually the typical profile for oil companies share prices with the exception of European stocks

Lol, your such a melt

The answer is - it’s not acceptable now! It’s crazy that we’re been held down for so long only to be sold out with a merger whereby we retain 53% of the enlarged company yet hold 95% of the growth potential and 70% of the assets.

If the deal was with Seplat I’d be over the moon but this is garbage for us

I.e we’re generating almost 40% of our MCAP in FCF

Currently realising $97 per barrel. You can back calculate the $86 using the hedging ratio that was given in the presentation.

Tullow FCF ~300 million this year at current prices. Not immense but also big capex this year on Jubilee SE project and TEN extension

All if’s and buts on that one, what if Total fund our cost under a cost recover scheme, what if a partner is found, what if the Kenyan government fund pipeline infrastructure for tariff value, what if South Sudan producers opt to export via the new terminal built in Kenya and opt to partially fund a pipeline. So many unknowns but that’s the beauty

But merging with CNE just doesn’t offer value other than paying out debt down which we can do ourselves using cash flow just over a longer time horizon

Honestly hope this deal collapses. It’s actually unclear what CNE brings to the table other than cash which is depreciated rapidly and gas sold at massive discount to European gas prices.

Tullow proposition is pretty clear - Ghana extension across two fields online in less than 6 months, 5kboed from gas sales contract starting at end 2022, massive acreage in Guyana (hottest basin on the planet), Kenya field development plan. 65kboed right now, heading towards 80?? Next year.

I’m not sure what CNE bring to the table though and I’m sure CNE holders feel the same. Don’t see any synergies here other than CNE’s cash pays our debt…

HBR debt burden is 1.7 billion. Tullow 2.1 currently ends of 2021

Thinking about it, it’s a great deal for Capricorn. Cash used to instantly develop a 120,000 bbl onshore field and 2 blocks of acreage in the hottest basin on the planet

A major wouldn’t buy shells old assets in Egypt and a bit of cash. Pointless deal for them, they’re raking in 10’s of billions per quarter. Let’s get serious, Capricorn isn’t that great of a partner, 30,000 mboed of mainly gas at Egypt domestic prices… think they need to get real, gas has fallen off its pedestal and oils predicted to go vertical

Heavy oil in Guyana is economic, If it’s good enough for Exxon then it’s good enough for us. Tullow absolutely flopped the RNS and communication around heavy oil find

SP collapses by 30% - 40% and I’m throwing the kitchen sink in. Ghana is barely priced in at these levels

So much coming in the next few months. Guyana drilling soon, when that concludes we’ll hopefully have had word on Kenya then we are almost at year end and be ramping up the two ILX fields in Ghana!

JMAX just realised you posted MRD! That was the guy.

This board has been an interesting place over the years

Wise agent, I recall this!

He’d been in Tullow for ages and had a high buy in price, if I recall he sold quite low to watch Tullow move in practically a few days after he sold.

I also recall the guy that put his mortgage deposit on Tullow at 20p and was convinced it would fly to 45p. He had a deadline to sell so he could buy his house and about a week before the payment was due Tullow flew! Lucky guy!

Deeko1987

-my password was saved on my laptop so had to create a new account to log in here

Lol - you morning I did say 2020. Go back through my post history on my other account if your really concerned. But I remember the days of slift and tornado Tony and even jubilees original account

Obvs buying from 2020 onwards in Tullow

Of course you have :), not doubting that… but I’m also not looking for bottom feeder profits. I made around 450% last year on Tullow buying between 10 and 24p. Made 135% this year on I3 buying at 11p and I’ll no doubt do another 150% on Tullow by Q1 2023.

And all I have to do is sit back and chill. Meanwhile most traders will sell up expecting a pull back at 60p and it’ll shoot 30% in a day to catch you all out.

Traders like you are the reason this has moved nowhere over the last year, in it for 5% rather than seeing the big picture. go and destroy some other share