Member Info for Ddraig

Whatever returns the directors eventually make then we all make.

Unless you’ve sold or not invested…which is everyone’s choice.

Without whatever mergez results end up with, facts are facts.

1.6bn barrels 2C…market cap right now £325…so that’s about $0.25 cents in the ground at 1.29 fx.

If that’s seems like fair value then sure…but I choose to think that people focus on one piece of information (good or bad) and tunnel vision…think more holistically and strategically.

I’ll sit and hold. 1 zone doesn’t change my mind over the fundamentals nor the board….this is a missed step, that’s all, but given the oil already found and flows, plus the natural gas plus the helium…it’s silly but I have no concerns big picture and medium to long term

Brave to call directors foolish.

They wouldn’t be making decisions based on 1 zone or short term horizon

Facts are:

They know far more than most from a technical perspective

They have far more information available to them that anyone else with which to apply their industry knowledge

See what this looks like in 6 then 12 then 24 months.

Maybe you’ll be proved right but maybe wrong…by an order of magnitude

Are AIM doing what AIM does. Sticking the price back to pre merger prices…silly but up to the unprofessional traders.

This is the bit I found interesting

“TS1 will be abandoned and well operations to test the next interval (Lower Prince Creek) will commence as soon as high-pressure pumping equipment is mobilised to the Megrez pad.”

Admittedly water but flowing at 1,000 bpd. Others mentioned this shows elevated porosity over estimates.

They are planning for the pressure management higher up…and if they straight oil them this will be more significant.

In the meantime those that still believe have a gift of a share price…

Try to stay positive

Conoco down 9% odd…Trump has created massive uncertainty in sentiment and confidence.

We should just hold on to the fundamentals. If it flows then that’s the main thing. General market can go up and down.

Better the have oil in a falling market than not have oil in a rising one!

World is an impatient place.

It’s not like they’re using a petrol pump and it immediately tells you the litres!

Not an expert but they as I understand it, work before to prep, run test, work post test to complete the horizon, analysis the results to ensure it’s accurate as not to mislead the market, write the communication, have that verified and then released.

It’s a process. Testing 1 part of it but not the full story

Not allowed to withhold information from the market. Sure there’s ’analysis and communication packaging time, but they can sit on the flow test results given they have already comm’ed to the market they will release individually as known.

Oh Scot…you haven’t changed have you.

Care to back up your claim?

Quite happily stick you back in the filter bin…as life is too short for your petulant, childish, bullying, egotistical and yet insecure nonsense.

Ta ta

16.58. Exactly, my opinion…others welcome to their own.

I’ve disagreed with plenty of your opinions, and almost always the style, over the years. But I don’t really think you understood what I was saying, never mind.

Everything is getting slammed today. They’ll be significant volatility for some time…only seen red as far as the eye can see a couple of them before…Covid and credit crunch.

It’s not us, it’s everyone.

But on the plus side, our assets are on US so no tariff there!!

13.28

Thanks for this…so it’s an algo based rating. Inherently flawed for opportunities like O&G exploration…first instincts right…ignore and stick to the subjective data backed by actual results of this very specific use case

11.39

Each individual can assess the information they find and enact their own strategy. I’m doing what I think is right and I. All honesty I don’t care what others do. If I’m right at some point the outcome will be enviable and I will have made good money…others may have missed good money…that’s life.

In fact I’m not that bothered about this one piece of research. I have the results to date, the plan going forward and the company’s and specialist company reviews already which I believe are true…because much of which now are proven facts.

08.42 - yes ranges given are 200-2000 bpd. Were told the lowest zone is the tightest and progressively freer going up the whole so 200 or greater in the first result is the start of the verification

08.23….or you could summarise what their rationale was. Guessing not too hard to do?

07.08

Looking at the timeframes for the first flow test results and the LD. micro presentation date of 8th April…guessing they’ll be pushing to have something to present. If at all possible the company will want result 1 just past the weekend IMHO

16.13. The main listing will be in the states. More capital over there and it’s a US asset so dovetails perfectly.

The UK has many challenges with its economy, tax burden and a host of other issues with the way it’s run.

They may well keep the aim listing of UK shareholders to make it easier but can’t ever see any need to go through the UK governance for little value (and uk red tape is the worst in the world)

I think the underlying way to look at this is…we don’t need to sell, we have both options available

If a buyer wants it, it needs to price the value effectively.

If not then we go to production (we have the plan) and realise the revenues ourselves over time.

Bad valuations occur when one party has more influence than the other.

In our case we can go down either path which means we have more influence over our valuation (this is where you want to be)

19.05

IMHO that’s an undervaluation. Why? That’s a valuation based on requiring a significant capital investment to first oil. Some others in the north slope looking at $billions before they start monetising.

We are right by existing infrastructure and the plan implies we can self finance wells in lieu of production from that well. We may be able to limit gas reinjection wells to those we actually need to pressurise the field as the usual requirement for more wells than needed is negated if the lng pipeline progresses.

And that’s before we speak to the Helium elephant in the room that has a potential to be a significant % of the value of the oil…dare I say it could be even more valuable.

The board has pivoted from oil exploration expertise to oil production expertise…..if/when it comes to any buyout offer I’ll be listening to the board…they’d have no real driver to sell it too cheaply.

David once said his duty is to the company and that whilst that should align to that of the shareholders, in any conflict the company’s best interests come first.

In a buy out scenario the company would cease to exist therefore the only role of the board at that point is to absolutely maximise shareholder value.

19.05

IMHO that’s an undervaluation. Why? That’s a valuation based on requiring a significant capital investment to first oil. Some others in the north slope looking at $billions before they start monetising.

We are right by existing infrastructure and the plan implies we can self finance wells in lieu of production from that well. We may be able to limit gas reinjection wells to those we actually need to pressurise the field as the usual requirement for more wells than needed is negated if the lng pipeline progresses.

And that’s before we speak to the Helium elephant in the room that has a potential to be a significant % of the value of the oil…dare I say it could be even more valuable.

The board has pivoted from oil exploration expertise to oil production expertise…..if/when it comes to Another buyout offer I’ll be listening to the board…they’d have no real driver to sell it too cheaply.

David once said his duty is to the company and that whilst that should align to that of the shareholders, in any conflict the company’s best interests come first.

In a buy out scenario the company’s any would cease to exist therefore the only role of the bank at that point is to absolutely maximise shareholder value.

I have a time line for my strategy and whilst never nice to see the volatility over the past 3 trading days….it doesn’t concern me. Other will have their own strategy and good luck to them.

Can’t recall them defining where, just remember them saying 0.5% to 2% of the gas with total gas volume of 6.6tcf….even 0.5% would be 33bn cf. Straight google search gave a wholesale import prices in China at $450 per thousand cubic feet.

That’s 33,000.000 x $450 = $14.85bn absolutely gross value….surely not! More than happy for someone to correct my maths as I can’t believe that