Member Info for Ddraig

09.25

I posted this last week. Found out end user wholesale prices and and did a back of an envelope calc. I have no onsite intk the friction costs a long the way mind

The helium market has unique supply, demand and storage dynamics, leading to almost a continual increase in prices. Over the last decade, helium demand has flatlined (due to a lack of supply), against a backdrop of 30% global GDP growth. Rather than GDP-linked helium demand growth, as with most commodities, the price has had to go up each year instead. Over the last 20 years, helium pricing has increased at a CAGR of 8% reaching ~US$375/mcf in late 2022 – this is around 100x current US natural gas pricing (AKAP Energy, 2023).

With the worst of the most recent helium shortage seemingly behind us, the helium business is a classic oligopoly with four global shortages since 2006. Helium pricing is complex, with the price for large quantities at the source increasing by an estimated 11% per year from 2006-2022 (Kornbluth, 2023).

Demand by sector 2019

Sector Percentage

Medical 23%

Electronics 25%

Purging 5%

Analytics 8%

Industrial 18%

Lifting 6%

Breathing 3%

Other 15%

Source: Modified from Kornbluth Helium Consulting

The current global market for bulk liquid helium is worth over US$2.8 billion with the import price to China now exceeding US$450 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) in 2022. Market growth is based on sustained demand growth driven by growing need for helium due to its high-value, high-tech uses.

There is an ongoing supply crisis of helium since the closure of the US federal reserve in 2019.

The majority of helium is sourced as a by-product of hydrocarbon production, with concentrations typically in the range of 0.04-0.35%. As a low grade by-product it is not possible to increase current production to meet new demand, therefore current supply is inelastic to supply shocks.

A new source of high-grade primary helium is required to provide a flexible and responsive, low-cost, low-carbon sustainable source, not associated with hydrocarbons.

I agree on that the helium could be a massive driver of addition value…feels like more than people are reflecting on.

Unfortunately aim often doesn’t properly value additional income streams…this I believe is where the listing in the states will help. A full listing will attract larger professional investors who may attribute value to the helium and are currently restricted from vesting on aim/otc

Contrives = volmetrics

Derail = derisks…I hate predictive text!

Not long to wait…1-2 weeks from commentary

Board has been unusually positive on the expected results. Often they err on the side of caution but all the recent commentary doesn’t appear to be much in the way of reservation.

I actually think the first result is the biggest and could/should drive the biggest price move. Why? Well it’s the lowest grade of the stake and if it comes in at or above expectation then that derails the remainder and that likely to be priced in at the 1st result. Of course there can be increments as each one delivers…but for me the 1st is the benchmark.

Like the fact the board is sticking with the flow tests and not worrying about contrives just yet. Once the flows are done, If I understand correctly then they will reassess…could be a nice extra kicker, unless they wait for a delineation well to do that.

All in I’m very positive…looking forward to all the caveats of progress expected this year (flow tests, lng pipeline, us listing, delineation well, production test well, more on our helium reserves -which could be another elephant!) etc

Should-shouldn’t

07.27

You’ll find that with this move, they’ll be support for pantheon to complete the environmental analysis on the lower end of their time scale…because the pipeline needs pantheons gas and as far as I know we’re the first to sign up.

That’s brings in timings and importantly reduces costs as we should end up needing to drill (or as many) far reinjectiosn.

Faster the pipeline is built the more efficient our path is and of course the faster the oil (and helium!) comes out, the faster our antcipated returns will occur

07.35.

no problem…unless there’s a material error in my thoughts or indeed the volumes the company think they have are wildly different the. $5-15bn gross would be a conservative estimate.

if we have 0.5%-2.00% helium in the total gas volume that’s huge…apparently high side concentration elsewhere are up to 0.35% so the company saying concentration minimum is above high side norms elsewhere in the world

its public information and some *** packet calculations (which someone with more insight might be able to challenge) and certainly doesn’t take into account any costs to extract, separate, get to market etc…and that’s because i have no idea about those!

The helium market has unique supply, demand and storage dynamics, leading to almost a continual increase in prices. Over the last decade, helium demand has flatlined (due to a lack of supply), against a backdrop of 30% global GDP growth. Rather than GDP-linked helium demand growth, as with most commodities, the price has had to go up each year instead. Over the last 20 years, helium pricing has increased at a CAGR of 8% reaching ~US$375/mcf in late 2022 – this is around 100x current US natural gas pricing (AKAP Energy, 2023).

With the worst of the most recent helium shortage seemingly behind us, the helium business is a classic oligopoly with four global shortages since 2006. Helium pricing is complex, with the price for large quantities at the source increasing by an estimated 11% per year from 2006-2022 (Kornbluth, 2023).

Demand by sector 2019

Medical

Electronics

Purging

Analytics

Industrial

Lifting

Breathing

Other

Sector Percentage

Medical 23%

Electronics 25%

Purging 5%

Analytics 8%

Industrial 18%

Lifting 6%

Breathing 3%

Other 15%

Source: Modified from Kornbluth Helium Consulting

The current global market for bulk liquid helium is worth over US$2.8 billion with the import price to China now exceeding US$450 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) in 2022. Market growth is based on sustained demand growth driven by growing need for helium due to its high-value, high-tech uses.

There is an ongoing supply crisis of helium since the closure of the US federal reserve in 2019.

The majority of helium is sourced as a by-product of hydrocarbon production, with concentrations typically in the range of 0.04-0.35%. As a low grade by-product it is not possible to increase current production to meet new demand, therefore current supply is inelastic to supply shocks.

A new source of high-grade primary helium is required to provide a flexible and responsive, low-cost, low-carbon sustainable source, not associated with hydrocarbons.

21.18 - can’t recall them defining where, just remember them saying 0.5% to 2% of the gas with total gas volume of 6.6tcf….even 0.5% would be 33bn cf. Straight google search gave a wholesale import prices in China at $450 per thousand cubic feet.

That’s 33,000.000 x $450 = $14.85bn absolutely gross value….surely not! More than happy for someone to correct my maths as I can’t believe that

But that’s probably a unicorn best guess

19.14

Well as a highest current estimate of 2% of total gas resource of 6.6tcf…would be 130bn cf

Anyone notice Mangroves reduced their short by a massive 0.01% which I believe is 114,000 shares….0.99% remains out standing.

13.38 - possibly.

But the benefit needs to be backed up by a credible plan. That’s everything from funding to environment impact approvals to infrastructure….and dare I say it, a credible board. If you look at David hobs and Max Easley versus Dilbert, no comparison in terms of technical experience, history of successful delivery and generally good old fashioned honesty and viability. Dilbert hides behind over informationed confusing PowerPoint circulars

Dilbert has had long enough to overcome previous poor decisions and hasn’t. Fact given share price

What he has found will not be commercial, 200mb or whatever is not enough for any type of development…pantheon has 10 times that and (to be seen) easier to get out plus gas to disperse therefore reduction in reinjection costs

At best Dilert can sell the small beans to pantheon and complete his strategy of rowing out of Alaska.

He can then take those small beans and reinvest in Namibia if he wants…another long shot imho

09.50

Glad this stuff doesn’t impact me anymore.

2 rules:

1. Never leave your wingman

2. Never ever ever let a shy, back office accountant be a CEO

09.21…

Call me cynical but BEX have waited their time and now looking like they will have a greater upside exposure than 88E for a relatively small amount of money.

Feels like a management buyout rather than an external hostile takeover….another kick for 88E shareholders on the face of it.

Gotta think that these guys have had enough being punched on the ropes over the last 6 or so weeks.

With definitely 4 flows tests plus a potential additional 3 flow tests with associated volumetric increase and 2C determination they’d be f***ing mad to leave their short position open. Their risk

Here’s not a goose…he’s a male chicken

Lest not forget, these reports are always wrong in retrospect

Personally I have no idea why they waste their time. They are pretty much a guess