Member Info for Ddraig

Worth being mindful that if Mangroves are trying to close their short they might try to do as much as possible before people realise…not everyone reads this site.

Thin the volumes out so it’s harder for them. Better result is they struggle to clear and the closer to spud the more they may pay up.

I have little sympathy as their impact has overly depressed the share price for the last year. Let’s try to make it a negative return for them!

Sure they had similar for TAPS…but the need is greater than the challenge

13.23 - straw grasping imho

10.25 - I think this is not a unnoticed driver in the for a full US listing

thinking aloud here but megrez fella like a real turning point…one of a handful of milestones

if megrez flows in a conventional fashion that reduces the dilution needed to access that p**** of oil but also potential time reduction to start cash flow generation.

it might seem like another proving up drill but think it has a much bigger underlying benefit if successful

it’s these types of drills that signals more to the market the inevitability of the development

might be wrong but i’m glad i have my stake where i want it.

09.53

What might seem conservative now may not be as time passes and equally they could be too conservative.

Its a complicated scenario that no one really knows until

It’s known.

I obviously believe it’ll be more in the future than now…how much more? I have no real idea but happy to wait

Maybe I see the world a different way. But in my mind I break it down like this:

Positives:

1. The oil is there

2. It’s inshore not offshore

3. It’s close to existing infrastructure

4. The oil does flow at commercial rates

5. It’s on state land and the state needs the royalties and with fair winds, there is gas demand

Challenges:

It’s not as simple as a calculation of volume multiplied $ per barrel

It’s what’s the volume multiplied by $ per barrel plus the sentiment where delivery becomes inevitable in the markets eyes divided by dilation to get to first oil.

However the dilution looks, share issue, debt, convertible, farm in /farm out….you’ll be reducing the amount the company sees at the end.

If the oil is worth $10bn at todays share structure, if you have to dilute from 1bn to 2 bn shares then if the recoverable oil amount doesn’t change and the price per barrel remains constant then it’s worth $5bn at the current shareholder structure.

Thats the bit that’s less known.

However, unless they go potty with the dilution, it’s still a massive number that you’d struggle to replicate elsewhere.

amateur day traders / commentators (and they are amateurs) can nickel and dime as much as they want day by day and week by week. The result is unlikely to change in the long run

22.25 Stas

I’ve been involved in a company that diluted from 8bn shares to 30bn, no bond holder just good old cash raise in perpetuity, I understand the devaluation of dilution more than most.

23.36

You’re very welcome :-)…it’s also worth remembering the bond holder provided the money to prove up talitha…and look at the result. Maybe one day people will look back at the bond and add up the point-in-time cost of any share issuance to cover that liability and think it was actually cheap. Time will tell but I’m happy to invest the 2-3 years to see where this goes

12.16

When you say ‘out’ what did you have in mind?

Presumably the only option is to issue shares? or maybe get cash from anyone that wants to partner for a stake? Both of those things are dilutive to existing shareholders either immediately or at a future date.

If you dilute now through a share issuance you’ve locked in the share price which is very low on any metric you care to choose. If you dilute over time it may be cheaper or more expensive. There’s probably a better probability it’ll be cheaper in the future given much of the prospecting risk has been mitigated, the main one left is cost and time to first oil/self sustainability. That said the board may be better spending its time making sure the necessary steps to that point are covered as effectively and quickly as possible. Spend the time getting the entire market to the point where they understand and share that the outcome is positive and inevitable

09.48

It’s a valid point but 2 things may mitigate this.

1. You get to production and pay the bond holder from revenue (can’t recall how long the arrangement lasts for versus expect first oil)

2. Before this, sentiment changes whereby the ‘market’ accepts the project will become revenue generating/ self funding and therefore the buy side will outweigh the sell side sentiment.

Suggest this may only be an issue for another 12-18 months

19.57

Go stick your head into 88e if you want to see what a bad board looks like bud.

Nothing to complain about here. Regular comms and updates, a strategy to first oil and a lot of proven oil to go at…oh and over 27 billion less shares in issue! Plus an oil professional at the helm …not a useless accountant.

10.23 - Thanks. like most who make the decision I've taken a bath but there's no point sitting with frustration knowing how to run a business but seeing it currently been done so badly, not good for the soul. Fact is I do not have confidence in the Board and strategy / lack of strategy which is changing with a thousand cuts. Say what you will about Dave but he always responded, Dilbert hasn't, not once...which is fine but I'm unwilling to sacrifice the time or energy supporting the company. Brom summed it up - slowly rolling out of Alaska to refocus on Namibia (with all the virgin risks) with a very low market cap. is the equivalent to roller skating up Everest and annual funding requirements just to keep the company lights on appears now to be in perpetual overhang with a paralysed share price. I can't see the catalyst to change that right now. The wolves are a lot closer to the door. Also amazes me that 29 billion shares in issue and still elongated periods of low volume. Polarisation of those holding (captive) and those with any interest waiting for further reductions.

After a very long stint in this share, like Clarkson, May and Hammond, I've called time on this. A fun albeit expensive ride. Not going to trash it but have solid reasons to focus elsewhere. To Brom, WAussie and all the other characters - appreciate the commentary over the years and wish you all very well.

15.19 - They don't do themselves any favours. Yes it's a small error but accuracy makes a difference and all ver have to rely on is written comms as nothing or any other value is produced.

And I guess this situation summed it up -I was chatting with a friend about the share and the strategy, he asked what was my opinion about the 'leaders' do you have confidence in them. I had to answer honestly but saying I have no idea as I have no reference point for them as people. Say what you want about DW but at least he had a presence

Aren’t we owed a resource update for 88. I’m sure they said it would be done by end of Q2? Unless they are squirrelling away over the weekend to complete on Sunday!

10.27 - funny isn't it - sentiment is everything. 88E have significant gas deposits yet no movement and it's clear that this type of development could, and likely will, be leveraged by 88E. How ever it involves our board performing better. Bilbert should be all over this and looking for 88 to seize the momentum - but chances are he'll probably be busy drafting a new PPT presentation on how big Namibia is, or some other far away 'maybe'

Forward plan is everything. If the CR was at £0.0016 you'd assume they won't have churned much before being in a loss holding. resource estimate if positive will help but a lot to churn if it gets over that threshold.

Understanding the next moving and partners / funding will be the best opportunity for may material increase in SP...unfortunately

Guess this has been missed...

"In addition, the Company plans to work with independent geological consultants to secure a

Contingent Resource estimate over the SMD and SFS reservoirs (complementing the previously

announced Contingent Resource estimate over the BFF reservoir; refer 88E ASX release dated 6

November 2023). Completion of these estimates is expected during Q2 2024."

Not sure what news will help the SP right now. As I see it the placing shares have a long way to go to clear and we know from history that will surppress the SP. Probably happened before but with the SP below the placing price, would the funders sell and lock in a loss? Probably not therefore argument is nothing is churning. Doesn’t provide confidence in further raises unless an even larger discount…which always results in a drop to and below that price. Vicious circle.

Dilbert needs to pull his finger out, be more visible on the strategy. Hiding behind PPT presentations is a waste of time and this is why accountants should never be CEOs, don’t understand people, IMHO