Member Info for DC2007

Expect nothing positive from the HY results. Debt could see this company off. Unlikely that anyone else would bid and the story for small equity holders will get bleaker. Another rights issue would not surprise me. This is a poor quality company and has done nothing but swallow capital.

If they could sell a mine or two and keep Cullinan there'd be some hope, but they seem to keep sailing straight towards the iceberg. If I was in , I'd sell now to cut the loss and at least salvage something.

Atb

Yep, debt is strangling the business. How long will the lenders remain docile? They could call in their loans whenever they wanted.

Can't see how this could be £40 in the next year. It's ex-growth and that's why the valuation has tumbled.

Indy,

Where do you get the near 30% of the stock shorted from? Shortracker shows 0% at present.

Atb

Hi all,

Anyone have a link to the transcript or recording of the last conference call?

Atb

The rapid decline in cash on hand is not looking good. It's nearly half the amount of the same update last year, and skimming close to the $50m they previously described as problematic.

Think the SP will gently deflate again over the next few weeks.

Atb

Thanks for the advice. I learn a lot from your posts.

Big day tomorrow then eh? I can't fathom why people portray lenders relaxing their covenants as singularly good. Means they are controlling the fate of the company; they might decide not to and call in their loans.

At the last update, the board said they'd breach covenants in Dec 19 and Jun 20. Hardly a well performing company. And their cash is low enough that they expect to dip into their undrawn facilities. Interest of 12-13% on that, not pretty. Best place to be right now is the sidelines.

I take your point Wigwammer -- institutions do get it wrong too. They're far more diversified than any PI though and losses are hedged and cushioned.

I don't know about the typical PI: maybe like drivers, they all think they are better than average. Couple that with recall bias (ignoring the losses but talking up the wins) and I'd expect that most PIs *and* most FMs largely under-perform vs. the market or a broad index. These are usually the findings of academic studies.

Atb

That's a bold buy-in Pistachio. Best of luck with your stake.

Why not, Warthog4, just say you don't want to be part of Europe instead of employing flaky arguments? Like the acolyte who applauded you implied, it's feeling and sentiment that guides, not reason.

Thanks to the responses, Drake in particular. My view hasn't changed despite today's little rally.

What I don't get - willing to be corrected - are posters saying this is clearly worth 2x-3x where it trades. What is the rest of the market it missing? If the market thought it was worth 2-3x where it is now, it'd be that within a session. So those holding their theory think they know better. My question to those is: how do you know more than institutions and professionals? What makes your contrarian insight stand up against this weight of opposition?

Atb

The debt-holders here are already in control. They could probably force admin any time they wanted. That's why the equity is trading so low. Too much baseless optimism here. Look back in the thread and it's the same posters speculating; what a sure thing this is to quickly double/triple -- wrong, again, again and again.

So Kabba, what's your investment here? Let's have some context to your sentiment. On the bonds, where have you found trading data for them?

FCF was negative in the most recent update, not $70.5m as people keep mistakenly stating below. That's one reason why the SP is so low -- after capex and servicing the debt, there is less than nothing left over.

The tone of delusion on the thread has become similar to that on the threads of companies that go bust. The only bulls here are probably those sweating because they're in too deep already and getting desperate.

Drake, Kabba et al's posts have that air of desperation to them. When you need something, wishful/delusional thinking becomes so ingrained one loses awareness of it. They're kidding themselves that this will be over £1 in a flash. That's very unlikely and the risks here are huge if you decide to go sit at the table. Be aware and awake -- the debt could finish this if the lenders stop being so accommodating.

Atb

The same people keep saying this will rise in the next few days...months...etc. And yet it hasn't. So the smart question isose posters displaying a bit of denial? With such a large debt, the company is effectively under the control of the lenders and creditors. That's why the SP can't get very far.

Atb

Fantasy. No one would shell out $1bn ($400m for the equity and assume debt of $650m) to control assets that can't turn a profit. The company is cooked. It's out of their hands if they survive or not. Today's results had all the warning signs between the lines. Rights, asset sale or D4E on the cards while SP heads for 5p.

This board has lots of people kidding themselves and in denial. This is a company in trouble, no matter what stories you want to console yourself with. Very very risky for a buy in, and time to seriously consider exiting if you're significantly in.

Atb

Hi JTS,

I noticed you mentioned the bond price in your post. Can you give a link to where it's published? I've not been able to find data about this despite a lot of looking.

Atb