Member Info for DC2007

That reasoning and conclusion is much more precarious than presented. Petra is 50/50 for being in admin in the next couple of months.

Agree with your point on valuations. But then you undermine it with the appeal to authority (Richard). Why should he know any better?

SallyB makes a sensible point about redundancies having a direct impact on sales. People buy food, electricity, rent before a new outfit, even a very cheap one. The economy after October is a huge unknown. If a prolonged recession sets in, it will effect all retailers.

Assuming the market is fair is the simpler premise to start from. Assuming otherwise puts you in endless circles of conspiracy. I'd expect the news about the possible online tax to keep the lid on businesses in this sector for now.

It can only be a guess – worth remembering when you read posts that claim to know. Get enough people guessing on the roll of a die, some will get it right and make it appear their reasoning was sound.

I assumed net margins about 5% and revenues after five years about £ 3- 4bn. That gives a PAT range about £150 - 200m. Based on these earnings, I reckon the equity to be worth £2.2 - 3bn. I ran several simulations of growth rates with various margin assumptions and averaged them to give a basis for the figures above.

Based on estimated future earnings as a function of assumed future margin/revenue. These give fair value of the mature business in a few years' time at about £3 - 3.5bn.

It's a the top end of fair value now. If it goes a lot higher, it's momentum rather than fundamentals taking it there. Means it's vulnerable to a sharp de-rate if something pops the bubble. Worth keeping in mind when reading the euphoric posts speculating about 600p, 1000p etc.

Buying the dips, or averaging down as it often becomes, means increased commissions costs. It puzzles that people do this. Another problem is running out of funds because the number of dips is unknowable. Keen to hear investors thoughts they manage this aspect of a portfolio.

Atb

High volumes again; wonder if another institution is liquidating?

The regulation and corporate governance requirements are much lighter, something BOO probably values. Moving to the main market would give them some headaches over this.

No one on a message board other otherwise knows if the SP will be up or down in a day or a week — they're guessing no matter how loud they say it. Not something to pay attention to IMO.

You say Boo are unscrupulous carp sellers, but complain about a great company's shares being dented, but then uncomplain about the buying opportunity presented! You must be confused by legal and illegal too.

The story has made the mainstream press big time and probably has some further to run. Can only be another day of heavy selling ahead.

Based on debt probably now about $700m and they've defaulted on servicing them. Selling all the assets doesn't get near $700m, hence insolvent.

Admin or DfE swap by the end of August more likely than not. Irrespective, equity is zero and has been more than swallowed by the debt.; it's as good as insolvent. No value even as speculative trade, let alone an investment.

If I had a holding that was still material, that RNS would be the signal to get out to preserve as much principal as possible. Glut of sellers in the morning so this will go down.

This will end badly for individual investors. Another company destroying value. It's sad to read those posters who can't see it. They'll probably lose their entire stake.

What is the best thing about Stagecoach's business?

Where now for the sp

...further down, settling well below 100p.