RE: Liberum article11 Nov 2022 13:59
Thank you Muscles! Far too early to think this is the inflection point when all the markers point to bear-market rally. And not forgetting the dreadful outlook for the UK economy - where Boo takes most of its revenue - for the next two years. Not my opinion but facts from the ONS about a worse than forecast economic deterioration during August and September.
For investors in UK equities, the question is how this will be reflected, or not, in market sentiment. Just a month ago, market sentiment and economic reality were much more concordant. Over the past few weeks, they've decoupled. The question is: will that continue, or will they come to align more with reality again? I think the latter.
Things understandably turned up in the UK after Truss left. Now hints of a Ukraine detente, China mulling an end to the zero-covid policy have arrived at a similar time to bolster valuations. Then in very short order, the steroidal fillip from US inflation data and Fed positioning hit the markets and got superimposed onto the UK.
The result is the irrational exuberance of the last few days. Many posters here can't admit that and it's probably beyond them to even see it as a possibility.