Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
£2k in at this level? Losing most or the lot is certainly possible. Generous estimate of max upside is about x3 at most. It depends what probabilities you attach to each outcome to calculate the expected value and thus whether it's a worthwhile play or not.
That's helpful to know II's position Furion. Has anyone found a UK broker who does allow normal dealing on AIX?
Redom to somewhere a certainty in my opinion. A split into PolyKaz and PolyRus much more likely than not. Retaining a listing in London of some instrument of PolyKaz? Hmm, that's where the uncertainty cranks up to me; don't think it's even 50-50 on that.
There's lots of scope on that pathway for things to go wrong and change for the worse, especially for small PIs. I can see how they'll end up with pennies on the pound. The prospects of Poly the investment vs Poly the business are radically separating right now.
Parsing the useful HL response, AIX is not one of the markets they deal in.
Also this from their website on dealing in international markets:
"Due to a change in listing or other factors beyond our control, occasionally we may cease to cover an overseas stock. In this case, additional administration charges may apply for dealing these shares."
That's before the complications of holdings within an ISA/SIPP are handled. And then how direct holdings vs. nominee accounts (the majority of private retail investors) will come off. Not forgetting what currency the new equity is denominated in.
There are a good few things that could go wrong for UK PIs to leave them stuck with either a stranded or severely impaired asset. We're usually firmly bottom of the pile in priorities when companies are making a decision on what to do in these sorts of situations.
This is why I see the chance of a 100% loss as still very much on the table for UK private investors.
They were candid enough in the results presentation to as good as say to UK iholdes the whole of whatever investment they hold may become unviable and thus essentially worthless. Y
ou didn't have to read between the lines much to see that there are many factors outside of the BoD's control, any one of which could crystallise a worst-possible outcome for holders of the UK listing. If people put heir whole house/mortgage/pension on this, they must be mad.
It was surprising to me that it finished another 20% down today after the fall yesterday. Maybe it took longer for PIs to react to the news and that in part accounts for the drop. Tomorrow's trading could add support to the theory or undermine it.
FWIW in general, my overall reading and understanding of the situation is that for those that own UK shares, it's about as high risk as it gets. By that I mean that 100% loss as a possible outcome is definitely on the table here as one of a possible range of scenarios during coming months.
Currently I'm a holder and first bought into Poly a couple of years ago.
That Boo got solidly outperformed by many benchmark retailers has got to be a big weight on the SP. The important question is, why are their revenues depressed compared to these competitors/comparators?
I don't know any credible answer to that. Until one emerges that is viewed favourably by the market, the SP is unlikely improve and will continue to drift generally downwards.
I think it'll drift a bit further up overall, albeit with marked chop along the way. Next few weeks and months will see some serious volatility.
Unpopular Knowbody (if the board copper is on patrol this morning, you'll be in for questioning!) but very valid points.
Expanding rapidly in the US meant they've took their eye off their core market and now revenues are fast shrinking in both markets.
They should have stuck to doing more of what they were good at. Trying to chase both objectives simultaneously could result in ending up with neither.
Quite a lot that frequent here come out with jaw-dropping howlers on a regular basis. Doesn't surprise me it's happening in the wake of the TU. It's scary to think of these folks managing their own finances,. And they're so supercilious that they try 'advise' others but get all prickly if anyone offers a differing point of view or corrects an error in understanding as Golden has done.
Yep, those were the values I used Goldenyears.
It is notable too that the RNS says expectation for net debt at year-end only. They've said nothing about what it is right now; or what they may already know it'll approximately be at some future point next fiscal year. So during those two unknown periods either side of year-end, net debt could be much higher than £60m.
That's before even getting into definitions of net debt and adjusted EBITDA (which is why I loath usage of them). And 'less or greater than' is quickly clouded should expressions include negative values, depending on how these are used and presented. That's further underpinned by how a company might classify its composing elements as assets/liabilities/equity. And even further still, how they use and then present these data.
Much vagueness that this causes could be avoided by companies instead simply stating 'total debt' or 'net statutory earnings'. The reader can then be left to form their own interpretations of these if they wish. Far better that than companies pushing the prettified figures so hard. Sound companies just don't bother with such trickery - they don't need to.
"Net dept for boohoo will come in around 35 million or less.... It's pretty easy to figure that out...."
Wrong. They don't make it easy with that RNS, but the few valyes they do offer imply net-debt at the end of this February might be as high as £60m. A fair whack more than the 10m or such that someone else mentioned.
The values and terms Boo have come to use bring opacity rather than clarity. A company doing that looks like it's hiding something, or at least being economical with disclosure. But markets don't like that one bit, as a company oughta know. So the efforts to stage manage backfire by partly causing the thing the company wants to avoid, i.e. a depressed SP.
If the company would be candid about significant issues, as long as those issues are surmountable, the market might not punish the SP so much compared to how much it might assuming the same issues but coupled with coyness.
Yeah, it's loss aversion and confirmational bias amongst the characters here making them hesitate from selling up, even though they'll probably deep down realise that's the right response.
Instead they're saying potentially libellous things about the Winniforth guy. That could be more risky than holding Boo shares!
Don't envisage the Boo ever paying a dividend tbh. Affording the generous assumption they *might* one day be in a position to, I think instead it's far likelier by then to have been swallowed up and/or regurgitated as some other entity.