Member Info for DC2007

Shorts and MMs must be in cahoots again, since Boo finished down.

Not much balance in the article; not scientific and rational. Yet in style it has the yellow flags of pseudoscience or the pseudo-rational.

Look at how no alternative conclusions for the premises are considered. It means theres confirmation bias for every point. Great fodder for the budding conspi****** though.

It's paranoid that there are people here paid to post by bosses! In the same draw as MMs playing games and the evil shorts. Fanciful hyperbole and I couldn't take seriously for a moment anyone whose posts imply they really believe this.

Oh dear, another case of confirmation bias; it catches here so easily.

Not convinced of a floor here. I can see it sliding away this afternoon, especially if the US heads well into the red.

Perhaps the shorts have sniffed out shortcomings with the 'Growth Plan'. I'm not so surprised the shorts are going back up tbh. The reduction looked more like crystallising profits in readiness to come back for another bite, because it's hard to envisage how the underlying business could have improved at such speed to otherwise warrant a reduction.

Some good (and some very funny!) posts this evening. Gives fascinating insight into human psychology, both the normal and the strikingly abnormal.

Excellent summary of the SP behaviour Aldebaran; and of the hapless ramblings of the board's resident cheerleader.

Yes, interesting to note that the old LTIP hasn't been cancelled either according to the report. And the incentives now kick in at 95p, rather than several times more than that. To think some on here were crowing about how good the Growth Plan announcement was!

Yep, I think it'll see the 40s tomorrow too.

It can still sink back into the 30s in the next few weeks. Short term, there's nothing on the horizon to push the price up much beyond where it already is.

It's boosterism: just wait for it to be revised down again in 12 months. Reality is the SP will, rightly, go nowhere unless the business starts to make decent profits again.

Rocket didn't even make it to the launchpad...again.

£2k in at this level? Losing most or the lot is certainly possible. Generous estimate of max upside is about x3 at most. It depends what probabilities you attach to each outcome to calculate the expected value and thus whether it's a worthwhile play or not.

That's helpful to know II's position Furion. Has anyone found a UK broker who does allow normal dealing on AIX?

Redom to somewhere a certainty in my opinion. A split into PolyKaz and PolyRus much more likely than not. Retaining a listing in London of some instrument of PolyKaz? Hmm, that's where the uncertainty cranks up to me; don't think it's even 50-50 on that.

There's lots of scope on that pathway for things to go wrong and change for the worse, especially for small PIs. I can see how they'll end up with pennies on the pound. The prospects of Poly the investment vs Poly the business are radically separating right now.

Parsing the useful HL response, AIX is not one of the markets they deal in.

Also this from their website on dealing in international markets:
"Due to a change in listing or other factors beyond our control, occasionally we may cease to cover an overseas stock. In this case, additional administration charges may apply for dealing these shares."

That's before the complications of holdings within an ISA/SIPP are handled. And then how direct holdings vs. nominee accounts (the majority of private retail investors) will come off. Not forgetting what currency the new equity is denominated in.

There are a good few things that could go wrong for UK PIs to leave them stuck with either a stranded or severely impaired asset. We're usually firmly bottom of the pile in priorities when companies are making a decision on what to do in these sorts of situations.

This is why I see the chance of a 100% loss as still very much on the table for UK private investors.

They were candid enough in the results presentation to as good as say to UK iholdes the whole of whatever investment they hold may become unviable and thus essentially worthless. Y
ou didn't have to read between the lines much to see that there are many factors outside of the BoD's control, any one of which could crystallise a worst-possible outcome for holders of the UK listing. If people put heir whole house/mortgage/pension on this, they must be mad.

It was surprising to me that it finished another 20% down today after the fall yesterday. Maybe it took longer for PIs to react to the news and that in part accounts for the drop. Tomorrow's trading could add support to the theory or undermine it.

FWIW in general, my overall reading and understanding of the situation is that for those that own UK shares, it's about as high risk as it gets. By that I mean that 100% loss as a possible outcome is definitely on the table here as one of a possible range of scenarios during coming months.

Currently I'm a holder and first bought into Poly a couple of years ago.

That Boo got solidly outperformed by many benchmark retailers has got to be a big weight on the SP. The important question is, why are their revenues depressed compared to these competitors/comparators?

I don't know any credible answer to that. Until one emerges that is viewed favourably by the market, the SP is unlikely improve and will continue to drift generally downwards.