Member Info for David1951c

Probably you would have to ask DGOC for an explanation! It may be terminology as $4.52 is base LOE and $7.14 is total LOE. Importantly the total is reducing and with $6.42 in discrete month. Controllable LOE is falling significantly but Gathering, Transportation and Midstream rose significantly. Both of these might relate to the changes in asset portfolio following acquisitions.

One month's information is only a guide and the position should become clearer when Q4 operational update comes out hopefully in January. Before then there should be a Q3 dividend announcement in the next three weeks or so.

Importantly DGOC is producing significantly profits and if the dividend policy is maintained rather than reducing borrowings, then the company will be one of the best O&G (mainly gas) companies on AIM. With further acquisitions there could be more to come.

Excellent update and December results expected to be materially ahead of expectations. If October EBITA is maintained the annual figure of $283m would be significant although it is unclear if gas prices will be as volatile and impact annual projection.

Q3 dividend should be announced soon as it is scheduled for December. If Q4 dividend reflects increase in EBITA the uplift could be substantial and yield should rise above 10%. Hopefully SP will rise to reflect the outlook and further performance achievements.

Trellis, thanks. The dilution may not be huge and possibly equity fund raising is constrained by Mcap of £30m but would most likely be at a discount to the then current SP. The possibility of other institutional investors coming in is also low due to the small Mcap. Eventually IOG will provide shareholders with a good return but timescales are lengthening.

The concern apart from the delay bringing an inevitable drop in SP is the uncertainty at the amount of new equity that will be required and the price at this will be raised. Nearly always any raise is at a discount to share price which implies further drop in SP at that time as it is hard to see any significant rise from here until then. This is possibly another reason why some are selling now.

BoD have done a great job so far and with their track record and LOG support there is no reason to doubt the medium term success. However as usual there is no apparent benefit in being a LTH adding more as SP has risen.

Some of my gains have been lost and I am asking myself why I should keep IOG as one of my largest holdings rather than sell and await the equity funding as an opportunity which may well enable me to get back in at a lower price in a few months time. So I may sell at least half and come back in when the position is clear. Investors don't like uncertainty and that is what I am faced with today both on timing of equity fund raise but more importantly at what cost.

My potential concern is the sales agreements with Petrotrin and whether there are risks including being able to sell all the increased production on acceptable terms.

Latest production is over 3000 bopd so MCap of £50m looks very low at £1.66m per 100 bopd. On some BBs the per 100 bopd figures are much higher e.g. ANGS but each case will be different.

With production further increasing and hopefully costs paid for out of cash reserves and income the value of TRIN ought to head upwards. There are concerns on tax and also that the increased production can be sold and not just increase the stocks. It would also be comforting to know that any fund-raising is unlikely. These are potential issues holding this back.

The big plus with TRIN is that output and revenue should be increasing and there is no debt, Production seems to have a good base and should not be exposed to major fluctuation.

A small position taken for now (40,000 shares) but may increase as some of the issues become clearer and less of a concern.

Thanks, Nick. I was thinking of updates a few days after the close of each quarter so that September would be out by now. I have not seen anything for Q3 - have production numbers been released?

The share price fluctuations are surprising given the positive news during 2018 on most key elements.

Perhaps it would be more stable if RPT released quarterly production updates especially with the increases expected. They issued half year numbers on 4 July so probably management have even daily information. Perhaps the Board could be innovative and provide information quarterly.

At this level you would expect more interest but the day ended in the red. One factor is that the farm out may not happen soon enough for some and they can put the money to use elsewhere. Hope patience will be rewarded and the farm out will happen in 2018.

It should but already numerous sells showing on HL so that will impede uplift. It needs concrete progress on out-licensing to take off.

… hopefully the new CEO will get negotiations moving forward and a deal thrashed out during the next three months.

In the meantime it is evident that some investors are losing patience and the share prices of i3 and numerous other small oil developers have dropped in recent days e.g. NUOG, Reabold and Rose. Even the news of spudding these days only causes a relatively small spike and retrace such as evident in AAOG. This is not helped by possible emergence of a bear market.

My view is that there have been too many over-optimistic statements on delivery of real progress and the disappointment, frustration and paper losses or real losses cause numerous investors to re-think their strategy. I am looking carefully at all my numerous O&G holdings to decide what to do and which might be trusted to deliver on promises or meet expectations.

Perhaps there is currently more support for small producers such as Rockrose and Regal where there are concrete earnings. Mind you even the larger on AIM producers like Diversified have seen share prices move downwards.

It's tough at the moment but I am sticking with i3 as the potential seems as good as many others. I hope it is only a question of when and not if.

In the meantime, I will be patient.

Half year results are due on 18 September according to trading update RNS 18 July. With the business performance and good level of dividend expected shares may rise further. FinCapp target in March 257p!

I have sold more than half my holding in last two months because I have much less confidence that there will be a successful outcome. The absence of regular news contributes to this as we had been getting more frequent updates. I am not a shorter but I feel there are other O&G minors with a greater chance of success.

Now down to about 4m shares as a damage limitation but in the hope (rather than belief) that FRR are able to achieve the outcomes that were thought possible.

Decided to take a small holding in this instead of SDX as it seems currently more undervalued by comparison based on the information available. The boepd is considerably higher although SDX will increase by year end yet the Mcap is about half based on current SP. In fact for 7800 boepd the Mcap seems lower than other producers. The cash and situation is similar and both have a lot of development potential. There has been very little news during the last three months and SP has drifted down since the last high. Probably the full year report is some way off but hopefully there will be news on production for the full year before then

Is there any nore detailed work on valuation?

What makes me particularly annoyed is the inclusion of the words "is pleased to announce" when the announcement and placing share price causes a 25% SP reduction immediately.

the prospectus is yet to be issued and in my experience with other O&G placements is the share price will drop closer to the placing price and then in the absence of good news further drift down below that. I hope I am wrong but it has happened recently on Petro Matad and similar companies. Massive potential but high risk.

I have sold and will consider buying back in at 0.30.

Given the scale of the growth of DGOC partly through the use of a large credit facility it is very difficult to assess the value of the company and current MCap of £500m. Completion of EQT in mid July suggests the average BOE for 2018 calendar year will be around 45k and with a margin of $7 per BOE would give an operating margin of nearly £90m. The first half year operating margin could be around £30m so the growth will be significant to say the least.

Given the dividend is based on 40% of free cash the amount of the total dividend will also rise significantly although the increase in issued shares makes it difficult to assess the likely dividend paid per share.

Looking forward to half year report due on or before 12 September which may be preceded by an announcement on the Q2 dividend. Q1 was declared on 29 May.

Having invested in a number of AIM O&G companies in the last 18 months including IOG, FOG and DGOC, I have come to accept but not like the drift down in SP after a good news jump as almost inevitable. It seems a lot of PIs are chasing quick returns and trading very regularly. That is their prerogative but it is frustrating for LTHs. The question for me is whether to do the same on my holdings including BPC, ANGS, Rose etc. I have been a holder but increasingly will trade some holdings more going forward.

For some holders in IOG the wait until funding and possible dilution with probable production in 2019 may be too risky or take too long and not provide a fast enough buck.

The comments and contribution on this board are very helpful and reassuring and confirm the rationale for my original investment. All the evidence so far is that dilution will be kept to a minimum and that hopefully will be the basis for FID/FDP. I decided not to sell IOG but increase my holding. The expected increase in gas prices and the increase in reserves makes this a good medium term investment.

First post on LSE as this was my first individual share purchase made after reports of the potential of Beetaloo. The potential is huge and with well established JV partner Origin having other 70%, this has a very good chance now of moving forward more quickly. Some infrastructure (e.g. pipeline) already links NT to other parts. It is very difficult to put a value on FOG potential but hopefully it will reward patient investors handsomely.