Member Info for daveycaferacer

great buying opp for NASDAQ tracker funds in my opinion......

Here's hoping for a much better 2023 for Hutchmed, I hope we see a deal to dispose of the non-core CP platform and significant progress on Fruquintinib NDA

Given their presence and expertise in China I have never quite understood why Hutchmed haven't in-licensed some assets and marketed them in China like the deal Beigene did with Celgene. There are plenty of U.S. companies who would probably like to market some of their assets in China but don't have the where-with-all, expertise, regulatory knowledge or feet on the ground to do it.

I also hope Hutchmed ditch their non-core business in 2023 - for circa $1bn

the FDA are protectionist towards U.S. organisations and it strikes me that approving the best possible drugs for patients is not their main priority. As the FDA is politically controlled and is not independent of Federal Government I have little confidence they will treat this NDA without bias

plenty of buyers again today, been on fire for over a week now

brilliant, back up to around the IPO price 6 1/2 years ago!. Only needs to go another circa 200% and we will be back to where it was a year ago...

11 million traded on NASDAQ today

Sina Securities have initaited coverage
https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2022-11-28/doc-imqmmthc6248501.shtml

amones, yes, the platform they would like to offload? $236m 2021 revs from the jv and a decent NI of $33.5m. Big volume yesterday and a lift in the share price almost always precedes some material news. I wonder if we have a buyer for the JV assets???

Trinity Delta have recently posted a short research note promising a more detailed one shortly. Their previous ones have usually contained details on the valuation of each clinical asset on a DCF basis so hopefully the longer note will contain that type of information

a rare day where the share price goes against the rest of the market

Has anyone seen any meaningful updates regarding HFCAA in terms of auditors in HK, and whether the de-listing threat is still there?

thanks 1pencil..
Interesting point regarding the for sale sign.... it seems to me that a competitor could acquire the large pipeline (late and early stage) at a price far below its true worth at the moment, based it on traditional valuation methods. I am surprised that hasn't happened already. There is a much clearer path to free cashflow now and there are a number of potential suitors with plenty of cash.

interested if anyone has any views on the investment case here. It seems to me that there is indeed a good long term investment case but over the short to medium term we may tread water. The strategy refresh is good, and a focus on late stage assets and a move to quicker free cashflow is also good, but my concern is the valuation of the business will remain static until profitability is achieved. Anyone else agree or have a view?

Hutchmed's share of the JV's are worth about $1bn given reasonable market conditions
If you add that to the actual cash (cash less STI less cash eq and unutlised banking facilities that gives circa $1400m and the mcap is $2bn

So the entire pipeline including existing marketable products that are selling right now, is only $600m

A new Corporate presentation has just been posted on the Company's website

They have been planning on selling off the non-core assets and I expect/hope to see something on that at some point as market conditions improve

haha Directors spending their own real money to buy shares, that will be the day!

I'd like to see some revised Analyst forecasts from TD, CMB etc in the coming days.... including how the trajectory looks from where we are now to freecashflow and if that timeline will be forecast to be truncated

great point re Lefei Sun 1pencil, a NED who has some real skin in the game and is probably pushing the company and asking questions of its strategy. Acceleration of the time to free cashflow is what is needed and if that means concentrating your resources in the areas that will deliver the quickest then that's a good thing. There's no point having a massive pipeline if you can't deliver the benefit to patients AND investors.

one the news sinks in and hopefully we also get the Fruquintinib CRC NDA before year end I think the market will see this as positive and we can get back to a more sensible valuation. We also need closure of the HFCAA debacle too.