Member Info for daveycaferacer

even with a takeover the dividend must be safe, ex-divi date is the 9th March, paydate is the 27th April so could a takeover be done by then given the fact it will also probably require regulatory approval?

"Could Cannacord be wrong?" well, they certainly have form in that regard

now we have a clear runway to profitability and free cashflow the company seems very under-valued to the likes of Beigene who it seems will be burning large amounts of cash for years to come.
HCM EV/revs 4.4
EV/EBITDA -5.7

BGNE EV/revs 13.4
EV/EBITDA - 11.08

Looks to me as if Hutchmed should be at circa $30 fair value

helped "by" Takeda payments.......... also Oncology consolidated revenues guidance for 2023: $450-$550 million, which does include a partial recognition of the large upfront payment by Takeda but even so that is very very impressive. If they can pull it off this years total revenues could be in excess of $800m

I listened to the call, there was quite some interest in 2025 as the first cashflow positive year, although helped buy Takeda payments - interesting point about the SHPL share redistribution 1pencil. There was no discussion on the jv disposal possibility but hopefully as China re-opens and capital markets improve in Asia maybe we could see an offer for that.

plenty of trades, decent volume, ex-divi on its way and it will be interesting to see what the results and what dividend they declare

another set of strong results, revenues ahead of forecast at $426m , with significantly increased guidance for 2023.

expecting them to beat guidance on Orpathys, but I have to say I a\m surprised they haven't offloaded the non-core JV businesses yet, thye said 2 years ago that was their strategy, is it that they can't get the right price I wonder?

thanks for that, I had seen we had a separate deck on the Tekeda deal on the 21str Jan but they have now updated the main corporate presentation accordingly - after a reasonable if somewhat slow recovery it looks like we are slipping backwards

it would be nice if the company would listed the changes between corp presentations as sometimes the changes can be quite minor

I had a couple of friends with Bantams - you can't beat the smell of a 2 stroke 1pencil!!

I am a buyer again here after a year of sitting on the sidelines

A new Corporate Presentation was uploaded to the company's website on Wednesday....

https://www.hutch-med.com/corporate-presentation/

I did have a Royal Enfield GT continental 250 which was my favorite ;o-)

I'm looking forward to some further revised analyst valuations in the coming months - I always have been partial to quality fiction - CMB's last DFC valuation was HK$36.43 factoring in the FDA rejection of Surufatinib but that shoould now be revisited.

Th HFCAA cloud appears to be lifting, now we have the never ending prospect of an invasion of Taiwan to look forward to!

lower than average volume with 1 hr to the close but up 14.5% shows the HK/Chinese seem to like this deal

Interesting that Pallavi Garg from Takeda wouldn't be drawn on the potential peak sales number, although given the $400m upfront fee plus $730 in royalty, sales and development milestones it must be in blockbuster territory....

I agree, great news, and Takeda will be a great partner with a big global presence including Europe and the U.S. thanks in part to its acquisition of Shire, Baxalta etc.... maybe we can get back above a 10 x p/s ....

China tensions and HFCAA issue receding together with a focus on late stage assets and a drive towards potential earlier cashflow positive territory (despite Surufatinib issue) means the investment case appears to be getting back on track.

Great news today re Savo included on the NRDL - 13,000 new met patients a year - small for China but that could equate to 13,000 x say $2,500 pm x 12 mths = $390m..... ok may not get $2,500 and will not get 100% coverage but this could quite easily get to $200m+ p.a with HCM getting royalties of 30% = $100m pa.

just my best case musings...........

thanks for that Jatw and for your recent posts and the same to you 1pencil

Hopefully they will update the 6 month old pipeline on their website shortly

We know the JV assets are worth circa $1bn and if anyone in this crazy works cares about DCF valuations based on current late stage assets together with the JV Analysts suggest a valuation of circa $6.2bn, so 600p a share. A potential acquirer could cherry pick the main late stage and current commercial assets and get rid of the JV and probably pickup the whole lot for $4bn - $5bn although CKHH will probably choke on their Meiji Yan Yan Chocolate Cup Cakes if they get any offer!

Great to see some progress on 523 syk inhibitor - an asset that has been under development for many years and was scheduled to be launched by 2022, other things clearly got in the way