Member Info for daveycaferacer

Both the Prothemeus and Bellus deals are at valuations that don't appears to make much sense. I have been perplexed for some time as to why Hutchmed hasn't been acquired given it's huge pipeline, which alone is valued on a de-risked DCF basis at around $4bn and that is without the value of the JV and current cash. My assumption, which may be wrong, is that this company will be valued at $20bn+ by the end of this decade if we do not have too many major pipeline setbacks (although some will be expected).

On the subject of valuing the business I am always bemused as to how BGNE is valued at a current p/s of 18 with ever growing losses.

Looking at profitable peers such as Genmab, Hengrui etc we should be able to look forward to p/s of 10 and p/fc of circa 30, which is why i think Hutchmed will be a $20bn mcap company by the end of the decade.

there's more money in animal meds than humans it appears!

I can't recall the number of NEDs they need but any chance to trim costs must be a good thing. Yet another sign they are serious in the path the profitability.

I agree about the Tesla news, I saw it on Bloomberg and it seems to have caught quite a few Analysts by surprise.

Speaking of factories we should get an update soon about our own new factory and offices in Shanghai. That will cost $130m and it is good news that they still seem to need that facility.

interesting find, and I suspect Leifei Sun had a say in pushing Hucthmed to partner with Tekda rather than pursue a high risk go-it-alone approach which would have delayed even further the point at which the company becomes profitable. It seems likely that whilst CKHH may not care most of the larger Institutional holders are demanding the company pulls their finger out in that regard.

you raise an great point 1pencil, and I still can't quite understand why there haven't been offers made for the Company given that its current value means a bidder would get the pipeline and IP for almost nothing. I wonder what price would be acceptable to CKHH, the majority shareholder??

As the new tax year starts I have started buying again, hoping I don't lose even more money!

TD seem to have very different sets of numbers including revenue forecasts compared to CMB

thanks 1pencil, I am at a bit of a loss as to know what to think about the valuation of Hutchmed. In theory, compared to peers this will be a $20bn+ company in the next 5 years but the market doesn't think so. Given all the financial progress, despite some pipeline issues (Surufatinib) it's mystifying to say the leats.

indeed 1 pencil but when the share price dropped from £50 down to around £40 (before the split) I really ramped up my buying, - what a mistake. Is buying at this price a similar mistake I wonder? I still cannot understand the way the market values this company, effectively it treats the IP and pipeline as having no value. One could think geo-political tensions are dominant here but it's not impacted Beigene to the same degree.

I wonder if the U.S. listing is now actually detrimental to the valuation. If I look at Hengrui, Innovent, Wuxi and other chinese/HK listed Biopharmas that don't have a U.S. listing they attract a higher valuation than Hutchmed. A forced HFCAA de-listing may have been a blessing in disguise.

They got Fast Track Designation but knowing the FDA's blatant anti chinese stance that could count for nothing. Hopefully Takeda knows how to navigate the FDA's approval regime and hopefully the FDA will treat this as a Takeda drug.

Weiguo on CNBC a month ago which I had missed

https://www.hutch-med.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CNBC_WeiguoSu_Mar2023.mp4

interesting 1pencil, I haven't, do you mind sharing where you get that type of data from?

all markets are now risk-off, equities being dumped no matter how good the companies are, there seems to be a flight to safety

agree 100% compounding, cash, cash equivalents + share of Jv is almost as much as the mcap suggesting the currently marketed drugs, all the IP and the huge pipeline is worth almost nothing. I am buying again ....

and if you add the Takeda $400m to the existing $631m cash (2022 year end) that means the market is valuing the business less cash at around $1bn today.....which is crazy in my view

I will be buying again at the start of the 2023/2024 tax year on the 6th April

So whilst they will receive the $400m shortly I got the impression it may not all be recognised this year but may be wrong on that

I assume that all the longterm large institutional holders think that the true value will be realised once the company starts generating free cashflow and becomes profitable but maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part.

the market seems to really dislike this company for some reason, just when we make progress up the greasy pole we slip back 37% in a matter of weeks - the fundamentals and progress the company has made seems to mean nothing.

CMB International have posted a new research note

https://www.cmbi.com.hk/article/7924.html?lang=en

Target Price HK$37.49
(Previous TP HK$36.06)
Up/Downside 38.5%
Current Price HK$27.30

Gino73 - I know, I posted a subsequently comment stating the dates I stated are preliminary (as stated on the Co's website)

thanks, sorry all my mistake
ex-divi 16th March
record 17th March

But all Provisoinal and not confirmed
payment 27th April