Member Info for daveycaferacer

Thanks for posting 1pencil - very interesting

I suppose my main issue with the valuation is that we are very low based on all the usual metrics, P/S, DCF etc compared to others such as Innovent, Beigene, Junshi etc. I can't understand why that is the case and also how we were on a par with them a couple of years ago so why not now? They are also in the same camp when it comes to geo-politics, anti-china sentiment etc except that Innovent and Junshi do not have a US listing. Maybe that is the issue here, without the NASDAQ listing geo-politics is almost irrelevant so in my view the NASDAQ listing is now detrimental to Shareholder value.

I did locate a chat forum a few weeks ago but can't locate it it at the moment but will take another look over the weekend

Losing 70% of their money and being so under water after all the IPO hype must be very difficult and have a negative impact on their Clients portfolios (Baring Asia being a good example)

Here is how my averaging down career has gone with Hutchmed

In Dec 2018 the share price was 528p and CKHH did their infamous botched placing causing an immediate 36% drop in the share price to 330p. I bought an additional 10k shares thinking it cannot go any lower. Here we are over 4 years later and I've even lost money on that transaction!

I have no idea what is going on here and how we have arrived at such a low valuation. Loss making yes but the CP, cash an IP alone is worth far more now than the current market cap.

That's good to hear 1pencil, I also bought last week but only 1k, will do the same on a regular basis at these prices to get my holding back to 100k shares - I hope I am not being foolhardy here (investment timescale is 2030)

JFD was on Bloomberg talking about his views on China, all very positive, he thinks there cannot be a complete decoupling and like Soirot sees collaboration and co-operation as the way forward.

Meanwhile most institutional investors in Hutchmed who took part on the HK IPO have had the value of their investment decimated. Others who took part in the NASDAQ IPO all those years ago have also lost money.

Thats a good one 1 pencil, he also said this:-

“The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.” - you certainly need to be here

“Invest Only in Companies You Understand” - I thought I did, now I'm not so sure

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.” - time will tell I suppose

Agreed amones although I've always had the impression that Christian was the only person with an interest in Investor relations. I've always got the impression that the Chairman and the rest of the Board were quite dismissive and found Shareholders and Investors to be a bit of a nuisance. That may be unfounded but that is my impression. I still cannot fathom why the company has such a low valuation compared to similar peers, and clearly DCF valuations favored by Analysts are for the birds.

HK IPO Investors have lost 70% of their money

now 8 years of growth wiped out, valued at the same time as when the pipeline had fru*****inib and hmpl-004 in phase ii and iii and savo in phase iii for one indication. everything else was in phase i.

and here we are with 3 drugs on the market, a pipeline that is 4 times the size with many multiple drugs and indications in phase 3, nda's, revenues a fifth of what they were last year etc etc and the same valuation.

this makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

We are now below the price of the NASDAQ IPO 7 years ago. A waste of 7 years. Around that time I considered significantly increasing my HCM investment, or taking a large position in Beigene. I decided on Hutchmed......unfortunately.

Institutional Investors who took large stakes at the NASDAQ IPO and subsequent HK IPO must be incredulous or wondering what on earth is happening here.

Geo-politics, shorts, anti-china rhetoric and Taiwan are all in play here but even so, the market seems to have no faith in the company and the company seems to not want to even try to do anything about it other than crack on executing the refreshed strategy. Hopefully one day something positive may happen to give Investors some kind of return.

people who invested 8+ years ago have done OK but could have done better elsewhere in the Biopharma space. I no longer have a clue whether this is a Buy, Hold or Sell because the price is no longer related to the company's financials or its success.

The question I have always had in my mind is, is this a vanity project for CKHH........ Having spoken with management on the past on a few occasions about the valuation I got the impression they think that the true valuation will come through at some point in the future and in the meantime the company should focus on what it can control. I think that is a fair position, although Investor Relations seemed to be something Christian was excellent at, and one could argue that a very talented scientist is not the best type of person for the CEO role. We need the Company to ramp up its IR engagement.

I agree amones, I despair with the valuation and still can't work out why the market values the company today at less than it was 5 years ago, despite the fact the pipeline is 3 times the size, we have 3 drugs on the market and ever growing revenues. Loss making competitors with similar financials and pipeline size are valued at around twice what this company is. Something seems to be wrong here.

takeda presenting fru*****inib, they have also recently updated their pipeline to include fru*****inib, which appears to significantly bolster the oncology segment

https://assets-dam.takeda.com/image/upload/v1684775318/takeda%2boncology/siteassets/media/takeda_oncology_at_2023_asco_and_eha/takeda_asco_abstract_5.22.23.pdf

That's is an interesting deal given that Pfizer is one of the investors who provided some of the seed funding for Nimbus and retrains a stake in the company

Another day another big loss....how low cam this go and how much more money can I lose?

Thanks 1pencil

not as bad as Innovent or Beigene in terms of % short of daily volume however

I hope they buy Hucthmed or its lead assets - I'm not sure I can stand any more pain or long terms losses

No answer yet 1pencil

agreed amones, and I've always got the impression that the Chairman overseas it as a CKHH vanity project. They need to get the company out there amongst investors, and sort out exactly what their listing strategy is. Christian understood the mood of investors but I have no confidence the board knows what the term Investor Relations actually means. We need a dynamic CEO who can market the company and shout from the rooftops as to what the near term future looks like.

Geo-politics mean this has become uninvestible. Massive financial, commercial and clinical progress has made no positive difference to the Company's valuation. When it's generating cash and has revenues of $2bn p.a what will it be worth? $3bn mcap, $4bn maybe? Clearly some institutions have given up and aren't prepared for the long, hard and very painful gamble. It's fine to deploy capital for a return over the long period but if you've lost your investors or pension plan holders half their investment you need 100% performance just to get back to where you started and that is something most institutions can't begin to contemplate. The CPP may be big but it has ongoing liabilities to service.

Biden will sign an Executive order in the next few weeks to put restrictions on U.S. companies investing in chinese companies and having operations in China in sectors such as advanced semi-conductors, AI, electronics etc. Whilst the drug/biopharma sector is not mentioned specifically this Order seems to be another nail in the coffin for US listed Chinese companies. Given the fact the NASDAQ price seems to dictate the HK and London prices I think Hutchmed needs to think whether a US listing is in the best interest of shareholders.