Member Info for daveycaferacer

Carlyle Asia Investment Advisors Limited acquired an unknown minority stake in HUTCHMED Limited for approximately $210 million in June 2021, so would have paid around $30 USD a share. No wonder they wanted someone on the Board with vision and corp dev experience. They are another institutional investor who has lost two thirds of the value of their investment and have probably taken the view that the company cannot be left alone to run itself given it's almost treated as a vanity project by CKHH after their botched placing.

Happy to have Carlyle Gp on the BoD

It's always intrigued me that when a Company's stock has been substantially shorted there is potential upside for investors to buy shares in that Company at substantial discounts from their true value, but that was in my mind when this went down to $20, but here we are at sub NASDAQ IPO price. The question is how long do investors need to wait to this to be valued at a fair value, eg. something such as a DCF valuation, years, decades....

To my mind I think and hope we will attract a sensible valuation one we start generating free cashflow but until then it seems to be a gamble.

Thanks 1pencil, yes, lots of guaranteed future buyers although shorts always seem to drive prices down but when they cover the price rarely seems to go up much (Gamestop is a limited exception with a real short squeeze)

Https://www.standard.co.uk/business/anthony-hilton-patience-pays-as-chimed-seeks-cancer-cure-a3483676.html

"For a company like Chi-Med with potential revenues of at least $1 billion, that could imply a market capitalisation of $20 billion for its first drug."

what happened?

I'm surprised they've not made an offer already given the ridiculous valuation

td have posted a short update and commentary after asco

https://www.trinitydelta.org/research-notes/asco-2023-a-growing-body-of-evidence-for-fru*****inib/

Why would Takeda not have paid the money they owe?

Https://www.hutch-med.com/corporate-presentation/

I track the NASDAQ Biotech Index which hasn't fared much better

INDEXNASDAQ: NBI

Everything health related peaked during the pandemic of course but the entire biopharma sector is suffering as people pivot from value to growth stocks. That said Hutchmed always seems to suffer much more than its peers.

https://www.hutch-med.com/closing-of-fru*****inib-license-to-takeda-outside-china/

"following the closing of the exclusive license agreement, hutchmed limited will receive us$400 million shortly,"

i guess you are saying where's the rns saying the money has actually been received? the company hasn't released that sort of information in the past. i am not sure that is a contributory factor in the decimation of shareholder value but maybe i am wrong.

Participants in the HK IPO have lost 70% of their investment

Yes still in, at the last minute I decided I have spent far too much time and money researching, buying, talking to management, attending AGM's etc etc etc to then sell at such a ridiculous price.

I will be invested here for another 5 years but this is a major part of my portfolio. I can't re-balance because I am not selling at a loss and whilst averaging down seems like a good idea I am not so sure that is a wise strategy. Just received a decent amount of tax relief on my SIPP today and thought what they hell, let's buy even more HCM, so like a prize fool I did!

I haven't set the Opinion (I usually do) because I am almost lost for words on what my investment opinion is now, fundamentals (DCF valuation for example) and company progress don't seem to matter. I'll do the sums but if you net out the cash and value of the JV the market seems to be valuing the IP, marketed drugs and pipeline at effectively zero

I wonder how many individual investors are left who can stomach these losses - the Company's market cap is now where it was 8 years ago, when the pipeline was tiny and the financials were equally small. 8 years of progress wiped out.

Let's hope the new strategy feeds through to a decent valuation one day

A good point jatw!

This could be good for Hucthmed if the new AZ China Company has more autonomy in the region and is keen to do more localised deals

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/astrazeneca-planning-china-business-spin-off-ft-2023-06-18/

Hi Jatw, yes

BeiGene (NASDAQ:BGNE) lost ~10% pre-market Thursday after Bloomberg Law reported that AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) filed a lawsuit against the China-based company alleging a patent violation related to its blood cancer therapy Brukinsa

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3980076-beigene-stock-down-abbvie-patent-lawsuit-brukinsa

The annoying thing here is that small to medium Biotechs get hammered on the assumption they will need to raise additional funding, except we should not have to. We will either start generating cash by the time we need more cash or we will have sold the JV assets.

In the meantime I have decided that I will not be averaging down because that strategy rarely works. I will hold here until 2028-2030 in the vein hope that this will be worth significantly more than it is today. I hope I am right.

Thanks 1pencil, an interesting comparison price wise, and I have owned SMT for over 20 years now, missing the peak but confident it will bounce back - one of the reasons it peaked so much during Covid was that Moderna is one of its largest holdings so that peak was exaggerated.