Member Info for daveycaferacer

One has to wonder whether CPP have some rules around holding China related stocks, a number of US based trackers funds and pension funds that own stocks directly have decided to pull out of anything that is related to China.

I've been viewing these DB sessions for a number of years, the format is the same, they get around 45 mins and present the company deck, and answer posted questions (not verbal). Mark Lee does a good job on these and has a very good handle on the company and its science. These sessions are really aimed at potential new Investors. He mentioned they are exploring a lot of new things, potentially in-licensing other companies products and other things that he can't elaborate on. No specific mention of selling non-core assets (eg. JV) although I assume that is still on the cards.

Thanks 1pencil, traders seem to like shorting this

I've done well with small holdings in Genmab and Beigene, and I had a small holding in Juno, also now have some Accustem stock but Hucthmed is by far my largest holding so I need it to progress well. I'm still surprised we are back to the same valuation we were in 2015, so the market hasn't valued any of the huge progress since then (when revenues were $178m and the pipeline was half the seize of what it is now.

Yes I have.....I'll let you know if I get a reply

How can this company even get the appointment of a NED wrong? Another nail in the share price coffin.

Nothing seems to make any difference to the Company's valuation any more, well, only negatively anyway, now the same market cap as 8 years ago,..............

I'm not sure whether this is in complete bargain territory and a Strong Buy or a Sell because there are better opportunities in Biotech elsewhere. I am at a loss as to what to think here.

No longer sure on the investment case here, -59% in 5 years

More dumping, the market and investors seem to have no faith whatsoever in the Company

Thanks 1pencil, that is a good article. the following also caught my eye recently

"Small-cap firms may be primed to outperform in the year ahead, in part due to a more permissive regulatory environment"

https://www.rbccm.com/en/gib/biopharma/episode/biotech-outlook-2023-small-is-the-new-big

I've seen various commentary about Biopharma rebounding this year

interesting 1pencil and on that note I cannot see what benefit HCM has of either the London or NY listings. Frankly the NASDAQ listing controls the price and is just being traded, I can' see many long term investors. It seems to me this company would be better off and have a much higher valuation if it ditched the geo-political sensitive markets and focused on Shanghai Star Market and HK - eg. replace the London and NY listings with a Star market listing and ditch Europe and NA altogether, they are not needed and they do not need access to those pools of investors anyway.

One can reasonably assume that if the likes of Carlyle, Canada Pension, GA and the like, together with existing ones such as M&G and GS, new what they were doing and considered $40.10 HKD to be a reasonable price at the time. Even if long term investors, none of them can be happy happy at the moment, neither can a lot of middle ranking staff with options in excess of today's price. A long list of people and institutions who want to obtain some value here.

thanks 1pencil, and I agree, I can't see much point in being listed, and I think the U.S. listing is actually detrimental to valuing the company reasonably. Price wise I assumed CKHH and other larger holders would want to see something close to the current DCF valuation; why would they give it up for anything less....

I continue to buy at this level and hope someone puts me out of my misery at some point.

what sort of premium/price do you think they would have to pay?

I don't really understand the current valuation although I actually think the U.S. listing is detrimental to the company's mcap thanks to the constant geo-political issues. Similar loss making fast growth Chinese Biotechs (Junshi Bio, Innovent etc), who are only listed in HK and/or Shanghai have much higher valuations. I am not sure what purpose the U.S. or London listings serve now, especially if the company becomes cashflow positive from 2025/6 and will no longer need access to capital markets for funding.

Let's hope they acquire Hutchmed, $10bn should suffice ;o-)

well form my sins I am continuing to buy Hutchmed and have also started buying Accustem. The question for me is whether HCM hits a $20bn before I am 6 foot under.......

thanks for posting 1pencil, JPM spoke about this on Bloomberg in the past few days, citing China's great re-opening as one of the reasons for growth this year. Pharma is of course one of the Chinese Govts favored sectors for growth and consolidation.

I am buying again on a monthly basis in the vein hope of my estimated $20bn mcap by 2030 (assumes blended revs forecast of $1.8bn, p/s 8, fcf $900, p/fcf 30)

Mark Slater still has a holding, which I didn't realise, and recently commented that he thought Hutchmed was undervalued