RE: CMB International Target Price HK$51.15 / £5.1911 May 2022 08:34
robert, I know the Board well and have been invested and attended AGM's for over 10 years. I initially invested shortly after the UK IPO but sold out a few years later, which I then came to regret, then bought a very large position again. I've spoken at length with Mark Slater and have also spoken over the years to Christian Hogg about the business. The progress has been stunning, I cannot think of another company with such a large pipeline, 3 drugs on the market, $1bn in cash and a clear runway to generating significant amounts of cash, aleit with a slight delay due to the delay with Surufatinib approval.
Institutional Investors have been willing to pay $30+ per share/adr and $60HKD per share in the last 18 months and have bought very large amounts. The HK IPO was also over-subscribed. Either these financial organisations have made a huge error or they see value in the company.
1pencil mentions Brad Loncar. Brad has been a great supporter of the company since setting up the Loncar China ETF and is extremely knowledgeable on all things Biotech. The ETF did brilliantly well until mid 2021 and has since lost 60% of its value due to the huge downward re-rating of the entire sector.
If ypu look at all the DCF valuations from Analaysts including CMB, TD etc they are all multiple times the current mcap.
In the short term I am hopeful for some sort of resolution to the HFCAA debacle and EMA approval of Srufatinib. We should also have NDA submissions in the United States and Europe for Savo+Tagrisso combo in NSCLC and Fruquintinib in crc (peak sales of $1.2bn pa)
Even with the delay to Surufatinib in the United States we are forecast to become cashflow positive in 2025 or 2026 and will then start generating significant earnings.
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