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On paper General Atlantic have lost 75% of their investment, I wonder how many years it will take to recoup that?
when this gets below $1 it will de-list so no HFCAA needed
having lost "another" few hundred thousand" I am dumping this tomorrow, I've had enough of losing money
The market is valuing the entire company at $500m (plus cash) which is madness
The one thing Hutchmed have been guilty of is a lack of ambition and drive, and being too slow and conservative. Why for example have we not utilised our China based sales team to in-license drugs like Beigene has with Celgene? And why are we not leveraging our U.S. presence to help China only Biotechs reach the U.S market? We need to be far more innovative from a corporate strategy perspective in my view, not taking big risks but leverage the organisation assets we have.
I suspect GA have made a lot of fuss over the last few weeks having a paper loss of 70% on their investment and probably pushed for this to happen, rather than Hutchmed wanting it.
thanks for posting 1pencil
There are currently 151 companies on the ever growing HFCAA lists (conclusive and provisional combined).
I am not sure but what I do know is that, excluding $1bn cash the market is valuing the entire rest of the business, IP, 50% SHPL JV (worth say 17 x $45m = $765m) pipeline, etc etc etc at about $750m. The DCF value is $5.9 bn.
Another way of looking at it is the market only values the cash and the JV valuation. Everything else is effectively worthless at the moment...... absolutely ridiculous.
amones, I guess it would be vital if we lose the NASDAQ listing but I suppose my point is that Lpondon simplyu doesn't understand Biotech and there is no specialist Investor and Analyst community, unlike the U.S.
The pipeline has been updated today
https://www.hutch-med.com/pipeline-and-products/our-pipeline/
A good session, very well handled by Mark Lee, someone who I haven't met before although was aware of his role...
I'm happy he addressed the question about the HFCAA but intrigued he said if they were forced to de-list they may upgrade to a full listing in London, although to my mind that wouldn't achieve much as the UK market simply doesn't get Biotech. Also interesting that he didn't mention the STAR market.
Jatw I couldn't agree more, cashflow is critical and we have a new state of the art factory and research center to pay for as well as a burgeoning list of late stage global trials.
Analysts have estimated peak annual sdales of Surufatinib in NET/p-NET in the US/EU to be around $690m so one can assume aroungd $400m of that will be US, but that $400M would have taken 3 or 4 years to get to. In my view we will probably have delayed revs of approx $400m in total over the next 3 years so not a disaster if the EMA approves in the next few weeks.
CMB still forecast positive cashflows from 2025 despite the FDA Surufatinib setback.
https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202205051563625843_1.PDF
You mention FRESCO2, that is a big one and thank goodness that is a full mcrt trial regime. Peak annual sales in CRC outside of China is forecast at $1.2bn so this asset is more critical than Surufatinib in that regard.
robert, I know the Board well and have been invested and attended AGM's for over 10 years. I initially invested shortly after the UK IPO but sold out a few years later, which I then came to regret, then bought a very large position again. I've spoken at length with Mark Slater and have also spoken over the years to Christian Hogg about the business. The progress has been stunning, I cannot think of another company with such a large pipeline, 3 drugs on the market, $1bn in cash and a clear runway to generating significant amounts of cash, aleit with a slight delay due to the delay with Surufatinib approval.
Institutional Investors have been willing to pay $30+ per share/adr and $60HKD per share in the last 18 months and have bought very large amounts. The HK IPO was also over-subscribed. Either these financial organisations have made a huge error or they see value in the company.
1pencil mentions Brad Loncar. Brad has been a great supporter of the company since setting up the Loncar China ETF and is extremely knowledgeable on all things Biotech. The ETF did brilliantly well until mid 2021 and has since lost 60% of its value due to the huge downward re-rating of the entire sector.
If ypu look at all the DCF valuations from Analaysts including CMB, TD etc they are all multiple times the current mcap.
In the short term I am hopeful for some sort of resolution to the HFCAA debacle and EMA approval of Srufatinib. We should also have NDA submissions in the United States and Europe for Savo+Tagrisso combo in NSCLC and Fruquintinib in crc (peak sales of $1.2bn pa)
Even with the delay to Surufatinib in the United States we are forecast to become cashflow positive in 2025 or 2026 and will then start generating significant earnings.
It will be interesting to hear if Weguo does the DB call today or whether he passes the reigns to Marek. I am hopeful for a comment on HFCAA but doubt they will mention it as its such a short session.....
One of the regular dbVIC: Deutsche Bank’s ADR Virtual Investor Conference sessions including HCM on 11th May I see: Https://onlinexperiences.com/scripts/Server.nxp?LASCmd=AI:4;F:APIUTILS!51004&PageID=41FD63B1-2CF7-42A0-9EE2-9A3B72307647
looking on the bright side, when this gets to <$1 on NASDAQ at least the SEC won't have to de-list the company, NASDAQ will do it for them........
maybe all presentations will only be in chinese from now onwards!! You never know........
CKHH have a complete disregard for shareholders of subsidiaries as does most of the Board, except Christian which is why it's bad news he has gone. Whenever I have asked Simon To questions at AGM's he's always been very dismissive so that sums up CKHH's attitude. I suspect they find individual shareholders and irritation at best. I do hope GA, Capital, Barings Asia etc are asking them questions.
I agree but HCM is down 70% ytd, far worse than most others in their portfolio
I wonder what large shareholders think about the current situation, Barings Asia alone have lost about $100m of their original investment so far. They bought into the story and its unravelled on many fronts. How much more money cam these major players be prepared to lose?
courtesy of Lauders on advfn
One of the regular dbVIC: Deutsche Bank’s ADR Virtual Investor Conference sessions including HCM on 11th May I see: Https://onlinexperiences.com/scripts/Server.nxp?LASCmd=AI:4;F:APIUTILS!51004&PageID=41FD63B1-2CF7-42A0-9EE2-9A3B72307647