Member Info for daveycaferacer

sorry I couldn't post it, work computer blocks the site but it was on the front page and you found it so thanks for posting

Common sense seems to be prevailing here although I am sure anti-chinese sentiment will continue even if this particular curveball is resolved.

Today's chinadaily.com.cn has an article about the overseas listing issue and commentary that the Chinese Regulator and other official bodies have agreed new rules and have posted them online for comment until 17th April. The rules include scrapping a requirement for on-site inspections to be carried out only by Chinese regulators.

a couple of weeks?? That would be very nice but I'm not sure about that.....what gives you that confidence pen?

Possible progress:-

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/01/china-securities-regulator-on-us-listed-chinese-stocks-audit-delisting.html

Today's RNS has certainly fueled the uncertainty fire.....

I agree it's only a listing where you buy and sell shares but this is and will continue to be a drag on the Company's valuation

interesting update, so I assume the majority of Beigene's business is outside China but will check on that. In the meantime we are completely reliant on the China Regulator bowing to pressure and complying with the SEC. We have now moved from the Provisional to the Conclusive list. Currently the investment case in the short to medium term appears to be at the behest of Chinese Regulators and that makes it impossible for the company to do much in terms of further listings, although luckily with $1bn that is not an issue for now.

there's a lot of geo-political risk here but possible near term positives are:
EMA Surufatinib approval
FDA Surufatinib approval (but could not be approved or approval could be delayed due to delay in GMP inspections)
Licence partner announcement for Europe
Disposal of non-core asset
A number of key clinical readouts

I've spent hundreds of hours researching the company attending calls, have attended 10 AGM's and have got to know some of the BOD quite well. big lesson for me here is that you can invest in a wonderful fast-growing company that is executing very well against plan but it doesn't matter how good that company is, ultimately its value can become completely disconnected from what it should logically be thanks to geo-politics and things outside its control. I am considering whether I should liquidate my very large position or remain invested, a decision which is very difficult.

Now it appears we have an almost total lockdown in Shanghai, and a share price lower than it was 5 YEARS AGO

Mark Slater exited at the right time, I did not. This is a cornerstone of my long term investment strategy but I have lost all confidence in the future here.

I notice that on Wednesday Beigene changed its Auditor from E&Y China to E&Y United States. Will Chi-Med do something similar???

https://last10k.com/sec-filings/bgne/0001651308-22-000044.htm?utm_source=stocktwits&utm_medium=forum&utm_campaign=8K&utm_term=bgneOn Wednesday

bring on the bad news, it can't get much worse

the positive sentiments from the Chinese Regulators has given all these HK and China based firms with U.S. listings a boost over the past week, but I have no idea what is causing them all to tank again today, HCM -10%, Didi -14%, Innovent -13% etc etc

Unfortunately My largest long term strategic investment is rapidly becoming uninvestable

Based on EMA NDA acceptance on the 16th July 2021 the agency has until around mid April to grant approval of Surufatinib (nor not of course)

tacly, I did exactly the same, I sold a potion of my large long term HCM stock and bought Beigene for exactly the same reasons. I have never quite understood why Hutchmed hasn't leveraged its presence and expertise in China to in-license some drugs like Beigene has done with Celgene.

it's interesting, I've been invested here for circa 12 years now, as soon as the NASDAQ IPO occurred it was completely dominant, but as you say, no HK appears to have the greater volume that NASDAQ. That said, HK seems to follow the direction of NASDAQ the previous day. I suspect there's some arbitrage trading.

I think JPM have called this wrong, because it is in the interests of both U.S. and China Regulators to come to some form of agreement

The FDA have an office in China so one would assume they will use local inspectors rather than U.S. based ones so that should help. I would have thought most of the inspection is remotely carried out with details on the plant itself, material handling, quality control standards etc etc plus a physical verification.

For the EMA ecxisting certifacte holders have bene given an extension until Sept 2022. For new sites and facilities within and outside the EEA that have not been inspected or where an inspection is required, a remote inspection may be carried out. On-site inspections will resume as soon as feasible.

It is therefore quite likely that the EMA approval may occur before the FDA one.

one useful metric for a pre-profit Biotech is p/s and we have gone from 26 to 7 in 6 months. Hutchmed may well be loss making but the valuation based on all metrics and DCF is now completely ridiculous.

Yes I agree, very bullish, the only issue I can see is a delay to the PDUFA due to GMP inspection delays caused by the travel restrictions and rolling lockdowns in Shanghai. We could well get EMA approval before the FDA one. What is unclear to me is the split between U.S. and European revenues for Sulanda but that will become clear when we see the figures in the 2022 results. We can also expect an update shortly on who we will out-license to in Europe.