Member Info for daveycaferacer

"I can try and coordinate contact with the company if that would help, or would it be better coming from someone with established relationship with management?"

Previously I would have contacted Christian but that door has closed so I have no real relationship with any other senior leadership in the Company. Maybe if you could try? I will also contact IR. Have you had any form of response from them so far since your initial comms?

thanks 1pencil, you mention about adrs being transferred into HLK and that raises a good point. I have explained to a number of people over the past 6 years how that can be done by MM's andthat a trade in London can be settlled by adr's in the United States and vice versa. In fact there is an explanation on the companies website I've pointed people to which explains the mechanics of it. However, I would assume there would a limit to how much that can be done.

On another note, what's your view on shorts covering and any possibility of a short squeeze, especially if there is a resolution to the regulatory stand-off??

how did you establish Christian sold a large chunk on the 4th March when he stepped down effective 3rd March so presumably didn't have to report the sale?

have you seen the prices of houses in Edinburgh these days? Can't say I blame Christian for liquidating a small proportion of his overall holding whilst still domiciled in HK, avoiding UK CGT.

Capital Group seem confident enough.

Fundamentals of the business are all still in place in my view. Revenue forecasts have been trimmed by CMB, I assume TD and others will follow. Other than that we could get some good news over the coming weeks and months until the end of the year:-

1. EMA approval of Surufatinib (everything crossed for that one)
2. Progress of U.S. - China Regulator co-operation re HFCAA
3. Savo/Tagrissdo combo NDA and Fruquintinib crc NDA submissions in the United States
2.

poor show from the more recently appointed non-execs, I own more shares than most of them even after radically trimming my holding...........

Re: M&G, I had assumed that to be an error in the filing

all time lows on NASDAQ, priced to fail which is ridiculous

One assumes they will have to cover at some point although in similar situations in the past with other companies that covering hasn't resulted in a decent increase in the share price. One can but hope ........

it's always amazed me that none of the Directors, Exec or non-Exec put their own money into buying stock, it's as if they have no faith in the company, but hope/expect that others do.

that worked tacly - thanks again for posting, let's hope the Capital Gp know what they are doing, they must see value here

a great find tacly......
Having thrown my toys out of my Silvercross pram I am a turncoat - having sold half my holding I am very gradually buying back again at what I consider to be extreme bargain territory now.....

Firstman, I agree about the pipeline. On that subject all future global NDA's will be backed by mrct aka global trials, so Fruquintinib FRESCO2 crc NDA due late 2022 and Savo SAVANNAH also due for NDA submission later this year should, in theory not suffer the same FDA issues as Surufatinib.

I am still completely mystified as to how, given the fact Hutchmed was iin constant dialogue with the FDA for over 2 years about the NDA, could the CRL deny approval due to the fact the bridging study wasn't sufficient. Over a year ago the company said the FDA told them it was acceptable.

1pencil, you are right, the litigation was against Luye:-

"On May 17th May 2019, Luye Pharma Hong Kong Ltd. (“Luye”) issued a notice to the Group purporting to terminate
a distribution agreement that granted the Group exclusive commercial rights to Seroquel in the PRC for failure
to meet a pre-specified target. The Group disagrees with this assertion and believes that Luye have no basis
for termination. As a result, the Group commenced legal proceedings in order to seek damages. On October 21st 2021 the Group was awarded an amount of $39.6 million with interest of 5.5 % per annum from the date of the award until payment and recovery of costs of US$2.2 million.

thanks 1pencil, I will be contacting the Company later today

Yes, $1bn cash, $1bn SHPL jv valuation and an mcap of $2bn so currently all the other assets including cash generative drugs x 3 are being valued today at ZERO.

Interesting that CMB is still forecasting that the Company will go cashlow positive in 2025

I'm also comforted that if you look at Surufatinib revenues for NET in the EU and US, it's spilt 50/50 so if the EMA does approve it (God forbid) that will add peak sales of about $80m p.a for NET alone. Thank God Fruquintinib is running on an mrct basis already, so we can avoid a repeat of this latest issue.

"We think the registration process of surufatinib in Europe and Japan should not be impacted by that in the US"

Famous last words! I hope they are right.

thanks for posting tacly, I was hoping for some Analyst updates......per your analysis I'd go for the latter

Hutchmed did used to provide a peer group valuation list in its corporate presentations against SHPL, the last list was in
Oct 2021 which showed an average P/E of 20 across 10 peers ranging from 13 to 61. The list showed SHPL had a value then of $1.9bn, Hutchmed's share was $0.9bn so you can probably safely say Hutchmed's market valuation of their 50% is worth around $1 billion today. And just think, the current mcap of Hutchmed itself is only just over $2bn, so the entire rest of the business including the massive late stage pipeline and 3 drugs being sold right now is only wirth $1bn.

The average P/E is still roughly 20, some in the list have gone up, some have gone down, I've not calculated the exact average but 20 ish.

This is the list of peers which Hutchmed have been comparing SHPL to for a number of years:-

LivzonPharma
CR Double-Crane Pharma
Kunming Pharma
ZhejiangPharma
Tianjin Zhong Xin Pharma
Zhangzhou Pien Tze Huang
Shandong Xin Hua Pharma
Jiangsu Kang Yuan
Zhuzhou Qian Jin Pharma
Jiu Zhi Tang

Now well below the 2016 IPO price and going lower, the selling is relentless, clearly people are dumping this and there is no support left

not sure whether to laugh or cry at this..........

https://www.trinitydelta.org/research-notes/a-genuinely-global-rd-driven-biopharma-business/

Trinity Delta view: Sceptics once argued that HUTCHMED’s plans were too ambitious, however consistent delivery and professional execution has transitioned a promising discovery company into a global commercial organisation. The success of the China Oncology sales platform, now marketing two products across various indications, highlights the expected path for global development. The impressive historic success of the in-house discovery platform appears set to continue, with the creation of another new wave of innovative programmes. We currently value HUTCHMED at US$8.84bn (US$52.12 per ADS), £6.8bn and HK$69.0bn (802p or HK$81.30 per share).

hi FirstMan - China peak sales forecast in NET/p-NET is $134m due to the very discounted pricing
US+EU peak sales forecast is $690m in nET/p-NET so that's one issue.
Annual incidence in NET is twice as high in China as it is in the US but probably much higher in both places due to a lack of prognostic and diagnostic tests.
Hit to the share price is probably because this will delay US approval by circa 2 years and rack up costs. At least FRESCO2 is already an mrct so hopefully Fruquintinib will get through the approval next year - NDA due to be submitted late 2022/early 2023

I agree, all they ever do is get more free share options, they never spend their own money buying shares. Maybe thsi will be taken private to put us all out of our misery. if the EMA follow the FDA and do not approve Surufatinib the collapse will continue. Oh well, it's only cost me a few hundred grand so far........