Member Info for daveycaferacer

I'd almost forgotten this second land compensation tranches was due, it's good news for the commercial platform financials

"cash compensation of up to US$95"

AXECAPITAl, your posts have "No Opinion", if you look at my posts they all have an opinion of "Strong Buy"

People should be realistic, it's rare for a Company of this type to rise 5-fold in 1 year, not unknown but very rare
All I am trying to do is to encourage some realism - Biotech and Biopharma is a long term investment

Trinity Delta have issued an updated Research note

https://www.trinitydelta.org/research-notes/asco-2020-savo-and-suru-data-drives-regulatory-progress/

" Imv you should review all of the reasons you invested against company performance every so often because things can change"

I am a specialist early stage Biotech Investor with 30 years experience in the sector, I continually review my investments and have entry and exit positions for them all

Thx Jatw, I was aware of their balance sheet but even factoring that in there still seems quite a disparity. They got a significant boost when they did the deal with Celgene giving them an instantly bigger pipeline and guaranteed future growth, so maybe that has helped them.

I agree , £5 per share valuation is certainly possible for all assets including StemprintER , within a 5 - 10 year period ,which is the time people should expect to be invested to get that sort of return unless the Company or its assets are acquired

When I want to look at peers I often look at Beigene as a similar company, which is also significantly loss making. In comparison our current market valuation looks a bit low - I'd be interested in others thoughts with this comparison. I appreciate that whilst Beigene is significantly loss making it is forecast to become very cashflow positive in 2022 which is probably a year earlier than Chi-Med but even so, the valuations seem very different

ttm p/s
BGNE = 32
HCM = 15

ttm profit margin
BGNE = -284%
HCM = -51%

forward P/E
BGNE = -11
HCM = -31

There certainly are some people who post things on this board which clearly means they should not be invested in Biotech.

As Warren Buffett says:
“Invest Only in Companies You Understand”

Everyone who is invested here should research the Company, its pipeline and its future growth prospects based on that pipeline.

Biotech investing is really only for the specialist, well informed Investor willing to take a long term view, and by long term I do not mean 6 months or 1 year.

There is a lot of new content and an emphasis in this latest presentation deck on governance, Operating under global standards, reputation & transparency, international Executives etc which is great to see

A new version of the Company's Corporate Presentation was posted to the website on Thursday 4th June

https://www.chi-med.com/corporate-presentation-200604/

amones, I could not agree more regarding the valuation, it seems we are no longer being valued on a DCF metric against future pipeline value, and the significant cash generation it will produce

In the meantime, I continue to buy as ever, confident that the real value of the Company will come though eventually, but some Director purchases would be welcome ;o-)

I doubt another ADR placing is likely or possible given the China Bill going through Congress at the moment, I think and hope the HK listing is resurrected in the next year.

When the Company becomes cashflow positive it will be a floodgates opening moment, because they will become very profitable very quickly, especially if Savolitinib gets approved outside China. We also have the pipeline now advancing quicker than forecast, an example being Surufatinib outside China. The NDA's will now keep on coming.

We still also have the prospect of the acquisition so a large molecule player or asset to add to the portfolio.

I've been a holder for well over a decade and plan to continue holding for a long time to come. For long term Investors I believe now is a great time to build a stake in the Company.

This should be treated as a long term investment in my view. Significant Shareholder value should be realised as drugs progress through the pipeline. Look at HCM, its a £3bn mcap Company and is still loss making. 10 years ago it was a £166m mcap Company with a smaller and earlier stage pipeline than Tiziana's is today.

As an experienced Investor in U.S. Biotech I'm confident that the U.S. Investor community who are aware of #tils will like this - especially the move into Phase 2 eg. a move from dose finding and safety in healthy humans to a full trial in patients

The NIH grant is largely irrelevant, it is the move into Phase 2 and also the possibility of the FDA granting BTD / accelerated approval in the future that is most important

Hoping to discussion Fast Track designation with the FDA - this will still take a few years rather than weeks or months but it is possible to get approval at the end of Stage 2 rather than having to do a long and expensive Phase 3.

Excellent news today on the continuation of the PIII Gastric cancer trial in China - peak sales is forecast at circa $340m pa in China so with royalties and manufacturing revs that should be around $160-$170m p.a

Could we see an NDA for this in 2021 with a launch in 2022?

Analysts use a DCF model to value smaller Biotechs, and there is a significant change to DCF when a drug candidate moves from P1 to P2 or P2 to P3. The later the stage, the greater the chances of success and the closer to revenue generation the asset becomes.

I would like to see the Company use a firm like Edison, Trinity Delta or some other specialist research firm begin to release research notes. That would enable much higher visibility by the specialist Analyst Community in the U.S.. where it really matters.

Phase 2 starting for MS and Crohn's - that is a major step forward for our pipeline and should add material uplift to the Company's valuation

To date the Company has successfully completed two phase 1 trials and intends to initiate two phase 2 trials with nasally and orally administered Foralumab shortly for treatment of progressive multiple sclerosis (pro-MS) and Crohn's disease, respectively.