Member Info for daveycaferacer

"Annual reviews are held every June, and at that time, any company that has a full market capitalisation of more than 0.15% of the FTSE SmallCap Index’s full market capitalisation is added to the list of companies on the FTSE All-Share Index, as long as it also meets all of the other essential FTSE criteria for eligibility"

at least a 20-F has finally been submitted to the SEC for Accustem

https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-21-078642/#rom138593_5

Pharma groups spend billions to tap into booming China healthcare

https://www.ft.com/content/c2bec4c8-3345-4792-a915-9e906f6d4d64?list=intlhomepage

Boards of these types of Companies, especially small Biotech, are notorious for disregarding their investors. Monthly slots on Red-Chip is not good enough.

to add, Analysts have forecast the company to be cashflow positive and profitable by 2024 which should also help with the valuation

I agree but revenue is revenue and to your point, value at one point will be recognised.

Very high volume - over 1 million ADR's traded in the first half hour today against an average daily volume of 231k. Unlike yesterday when someone was selling a large qty today someone appears to be doing the opposite at a bargain price.

Here is a classic example which demonstrates how undervalued Hutchmed is.

VIR Biotech has a pipeline that is around a quarter of Hutchmed's, with no approved drugs. It had revenues of $76m in 2020, with a corresponding loss of $298m. It is not expected to be profitable until 2025.

It trades on a P/S of 101 and an EV/S of 66.

We are valued at P/S of 16 and an EV/S of 17. I cannot see the current valuation of $4bn is sensible. There are many other examples similar to VIR.

I meant to add, i agree with the durian analogy. I suspect the only way the Company will get the valuation it deserves is an Asian listing.

It is quite possible that Hutchmed will dispose of a non-core asset. From a strategic perspective as the IP sales ramp up the CP part of the business may become less important and the dividends from the JV's will be replaced with positive earnings from the IP. At that point the CP could be a distraction and considered non-core, and hence it could be sold or spun out separately. That would result in a further large cash injection into the business.

I use fundamentals to project forward market valuations such as p/s, p/e, EV/s etc etc then I blend them. I also take analyst DCF models as well and combine them with my own. The Company should, in "theory" be worth $20bn in the next 5 years and that is conservative, based only on the current marketed drugs + Surufatinib in the U.S and Savo in China. The market is not valuing the pipeline correctly at the moment.

I agree with your point Jak76, bookbuilding will bring the valuation to a sensible conclusion if there is enough appetite to take up any new shares. That could be the reason for the delay....

I would have thought the valuation is based on a) the nominal value of the capital reduction and b) the cash sum transferred out of Tiziana but I've given up even thinking about Accustem. If it happens this year I'll be pleasantly surprised.

I am a very enthusiastic long term investor but your point about the opportunity cost one I align with. Despite all the wonderful progress by the Company my substantial investment has not grown in value in the last 3.5 years which is very concerning.

I certainly understand your point about the opportunity cost BravoZulu. It's OK if you have a lot of stock options as many in the Company do but to have a very large amount tied up when the share price is effectively back where it was 3.5 years ago is very frustrating. I've never expected the valuation to go up in a straight line but given that markets factor in the future to some extent I can't understand today's mcap. Maybe it will never get any higher until the Company beccomes cashflow positive?

I remain invested and continue to buy, for the time being, as I believe the true value ($20bn+) will come through.

the Oncology revenues are ramping up much faster than forecast and taking the Co's 2021 numbers they could come in between $110-$130m. The following year Oncology revs are forecast to be around $220m + say $210-220m for CP. Therefore, based on those numbers it is possible the Company could just about become cashflow positive by 2024 and avoid any more equity or debt. Having said that, no amount of money is enough for Biopharma so I hope a straight HK or Star market equity raise/IPO is what will occur.

On the subject of JV's and the OTC business whilst I am sure those are no longer long term strategic assets they do serve a useful purpose at the moment in terms of dividends and cashflow coming into the business. At some point maybe the Company will decide those businesses are better off being outside the portfolio so they can focus 100% on the Innovation Platform.

Exciting times ahead yet the market doesn't seem enthusiastic (down 20% since mid Feb). I hop that an Asian listing will do something to address the valuation. Given markets are forward-looking today's valuation seems low.

hi amones, I will be posting it on ST today

"No one has any idea just now ( other than the BOD)."

They don't know either

Further ti my post a few months ago it appears AZ have now appointed a Global Head of Commercialization - DS 1062 & Savolitinib:-

Gaby Bourbara:-
hxxps://www.linkedin.com/in/gaby-bourbara-3a935925/?originalSubdomain=ca

Interestingly it appears to be an internal move/candidate

Trinity Delta have just issued an updated research note

https://www.trinitydelta.org/research-notes/transitioning-to-a-global-oncology-player/