RE: Zero confidence in Comex5 Feb 2026 16:35
Fresnillo plc – 2025 Financial & Share Price Projection
(Based on 2025 average gold & silver prices)
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1. Reference Point: Last Reported Results (March 2025)
Fresnillo plc final results released March 2025 covered the year ended 31 December 2024.
2024 Actuals:
- Reported revenue: US$3.50bn
- Adjusted revenue: US$3.64bn
- EBITDA: US$1.55bn (Margin ~44%)
- Net income: US$227m
- Shares outstanding: ~737m
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2. 2025 Average Metal Prices Used
- Gold: US$3,432/oz
- Silver: US$40.03/oz
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3. 2025 Production Assumptions
| Metal | Production |
|-------|------------|
| Gold | ~570 koz |
| Silver| ~51 Moz |
| Lead | ~59 kt |
| Zinc | ~98 kt |
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4. 2025 Revenue Projection by Metal
| Metal | Revenue (US$) |
|-------|---------------|
| Gold | 1.96bn |
| Silver| 2.04bn |
| Lead | 0.12bn |
| Zinc | 0.29bn |
Total projected revenue: ~US$4.4bn
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5. EBITDA Projection (2025)
| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA Margin | EBITDA |
|----------|---------|---------------|--------|
| Base | 4.4bn | 45% | 2.0bn |
| Strong | 4.4bn | 55% | 2.4bn |
| Upside | 5.1bn | 55% | 2.8bn |
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6. Net Income Projection (2025)
| Scenario | EBITDA | Net Income |
|----------|--------|------------|
| Conservative | 2.0bn | ~1.4bn |
| Mid case | 2.4bn | ~1.7bn |
| Upside | 2.8bn | ~2.0bn |
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7. Earnings Per Share (EPS)
| Scenario | Net Income | EPS (USD) |
|----------|------------|-----------|
| Conservative | 1.4bn | 1.89 |
| Mid case | 1.7bn | 2.29 |
| Upside | 2.0bn | 2.66 |
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8. Share Price Valuation (P/E Method)
| EPS | P/E 15 | P/E 20 | P/E 25 |
|-----|--------|--------|--------|
| 1.89| $28 | $38 | $47 |
| 2.29| $34 | $46 | $57 |
| 2.66| $40 | $53 | $67 |
Approximate GBP equivalents (£22–£53+) using USD/GBP ~1.25
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9. Key Takeaways
- 2025 revenue could rise from $3.5bn (2024) to ~4.4bn.
- Profitability highly sensitive to gold & silver prices.
- EPS could increase 8–10× vs 2024.
- Current market prices (£37–£39) reflect mid-case earnings.
- Sustained strong metal prices could justify £45–£55+ valuations.
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10. Important Caveats
- Estimates use average metal prices, not realized contract pricing.
- Does not include hedging, FX swings, or one-off tax effects.
- Mining equity valuations are sensitive to commodity sentiment.
- Analytical modelling; not investment advice.
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End of document
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