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RBC’s downgrade sees EnQuest rated as ‘underperform’, previously ‘outperform’, and the bank’s price target moved to 15p, down from 55p (current price: 21.58p).

“System outages and equipment repairs on the Kraken FPSO continue to limit performance, which has led EnQuest to lower its production guidance for 2019,” the analyst said.

“Gross Kraken production is now expected to be 30-35,000b/d, which includes DC4 contributions but is well below the previous guidance for total field plateau production of 50,000b/d and our annualised expectation of 40,000b/d.

“Although well testing is now complete at all 11 producing wells, we believe that given the revised production profile there is a risk of a reserves downgrade alongside FY18 results on 21st March.”

RBC said Kraken will produce 30-35k instead of 50k as previously expected due to opps issues... dont know how true this is

these were the same moronic idiots who said oil was going to $100 just over a month ago and now a month later the world is ending. My advise do your own analysis based on a wide selection of professional analysis. The brokers change their views in a heart beat. Now some brokers think oil will be heading back to mid 70s whilst others think it will be in the low 50s....

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/189604/hurricane-boss-plans-seamless-execution-of-drilling-campaigns-off-shetland/

Article Continued:

But there are hurdles, Mr Trice warned: “We’re constrained to 20,000 bpd for regulatory reasons.
“There’s an environmental constraint based on gas flaring. When we have a solution, that constraint falls away.
“Then there’s the Oil and Gas Authority’s perspective of ensuring that we’re not mistreating the reservoir.
“Once we’ve demonstrated how the wells are behaving while producing, there will be an opportunity to renegotiate the maximum flow rate.
“We’re looking to increase the capacity from 30,000 to 40,000 bpd because we’re working towards a non-flaring solution for the gas, so it will be a pipeline-based evacuation solution.
“If we achieve that and succeed in debottlenecking the production system, we should be able to make the 40,000 bpd.”
The intention is to tie back a third well to test the Greater Warwick Area (GWA) Lincoln discovery. Further Lancaster wells remain an option.
“One shouldn’t forget that the EPS is the first stage of a broader development,” Mr Trice said.
“Prior to planning additional wells to tie in or drill, we want to see how the EPS behaves.
“Based on that behaviour we will be able to make recommendations on how we would like to proceed.
“Our intention is to have a field development plan (FDP) for the next phase of Lancaster within four years.”
Hurricane can also use Aoka Mizu to do a bit of playing with GWA, while planning future wells in the Greater Lancaster Area (GLA).
Mr Trice said: “We have a drilling programme mapped – three GWA wells for 2019. If they are successful we expect a further three wells will be drilled, giving a six-well stock for a future GWA development. Then we’ll turn our attention to the Halifax-Lancaster structures.
“GWA drilling is scheduled to start in February-March.
“That is an important reason behind why the Aberdeen office presence has been greatly expanded to cope.
“We’re getting a drilling team from Petrofac into our new office, and we’ll have Spirit Energy geologists and engineers joining the team.
“They’re working on three wells back-to-back and it is important to have the same team planning and executing seamlessly.”
Each well will be tested for three things – hydrocarbon type, flow potential and reservoir pressure.
Sensors will be left in the wells to discover whether they can “see each other”.
If they can, it reinforces the view that GWA is one continuous structure.
The first three GWA wells will be identical to the Lancaster producers with the exception of the downhole pressure gauges.
Each well is expected to take 60-70 days to drill and complete, so the company should have results by late summer.
The most exciting of the GWA wells is the first. It will be drilled into the Lincoln discovery, made in 2017.
Mr Trice said: “If it’s as successful as we anticipate, it will be suspended with a view to tying it back to Aoka Mizu next year.
“Our expectation is that we will have made a final investment decision (FID) for this tie-back by the end

A recent interview with Robert Trice, the Hur board might find it of interest...

The Aoka Mizu vessel was widely expected to have been installed at the Lancaster field by now, with final preparations under way for the long-term oil production trial, beginning in the current quarter.
Following scheduled completion work in Rotterdam last month – including fitting the flare boom – the Bluewater-owned FPSO took advantage of quiet weather conditions to arrive west of Shetland late last week.
Given the high degree of pre-commissioning, the run-up to first oil could be very short. But Robert Trice, chief executive of field operator Hurricane Energy, has not published an estimate.
“If you look at the ranges of what could happen, it’s meaningless,” he told Energy Voice, prior to the vessel’s departure from the Netherlands. “It’s either going to be very short or very long. That’s the reality.”
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That caution was sensible, in hindsight — the FPSO has now returned to the Moray Firth, according to the Marine Traffic website.
Once the vessel is hooked up to the buoy at Lancaster, the start-up process is expected to take 20-22 days. That’s about gradually bringing the two production wells on stream individually, checking for flow assurance, and how the Lancaster reservoir’s pressures behaves.
Aoka Mizu is well proven and her systems were already well matched to Lancaster.
It was simply a case of carrying out a general overhaul and replacing components during the refit in Dubai.
Critical work involved the addition of plating and screens to protect the ship, its production train and crew from green seas breaking aboard.
“The work was mostly about giving Aoka Mizu an upgrade capable of lasting 10 years,” Mr Trice said.
“The risk attached to our start-up procedure is significantly less than for other FPSOs because we’re putting the same kind of hydrocarbons into the system as the vessel handled when it was on the Ettrick field.”
Mr Trice is confident the two wells drilled so far on Lancaster will deliver results.
He said: “There’s so much energy in the reservoir system. The permeability is very high and the productivity index of each well is also high, so the wells should flow without any hassle.
“Our intention is to open them up gently and then bring them up to 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) per well, which equates to 20,000 bpd gross.
“That will net at 17,500 bpd because –over a period of two to three years – we expect there to be downtime for pigging runs, for weather, cargo transfer and so-on.”
What is the upside potential to be won from the early production trial, which is targeting 12% of known Lancaster reserves?
The FPSO has more than enough spare capacity to cope. Currently, the capacity of the early production system (EPS) is 30,000 bpd.
But there are hurd