From an SP perspective - cancellations and airport chaos is nothing but good news. High demand = profit. It's very easy to make money when people are fighting for your product.
From a personal perspective, sure if I booked a holiday then couldn't go, I would be incredibly angry , but for the tiny proportion of customers compensated there are mammoth profits being made.
AAL is up another 3% again at open - that's on top of yesterday's 6%
Can see that resistance at 131 but think the Us - UK correlation is strong enough to tip us over.
Could be looking at 134 today I reckon.
Most of my holding is now at 150/140ish and 132 (half) so I am holding holding holding. Gonna wait three months till next results. Everytime it gets around 130 I'm going to continue buying up small tranches. Can see results and above mentioned events (oil, war) lasting a while, but great drivers for sp when they finish. My guess is next results if good drive us back to 180
It's hilarious to me that people would be thinking of selling now, when its bottomed. NOW is the time to put in. Almost guaranteed to be back in profit next results. Anyone who gets in now could be looking at 33% in three months.
October 2020 low was based on complete closing of ALL air travel for an indefinite period. Effectively their entire business was being closed indefinitely. Why would it return to that level when are predicted a return to profit in Q2? That's three months.
Lol, of course Oracle is back.
Just took the opportunity to top up at 121.2
Reckon 121 is the bottom in my opinion , considering current depressed markets but forward looking return to profit within 3 months.
Once hysteria fizzled out it will be a slow March back up to 180 over next three months in anticipation of return to profit. Those who get in now and hold will do ok I reckon.
Out of interest, how are the losses so high, nearly double than during full lockdown? Is it just a result of spinning up the business quickly. I.e. needing to invest in new staff and repairs - ahead of getting back to full earnings potential.
Oil, you've started about 5 threads today with different titles that are all basically the same thing, you moaning that the share is not doing well compared to other airlines. Why not stick to the same thread if you're making the same point again? For a concerned investor, you seem to put a lot of energy into bashing the share.
Thanks Trucks.
Since you personally had one bad experience with BA and you also speculate that other people may have had the same problem, I'm probably going to sell all my shares at a loss. I'm convinced because you gave one anecdotal explanation and used the word ' shambles'. I can tell that you know a lot about business from the use of the word shambles.
Sund, would love if that CityAM article came true.
I think average Russians would also be happy.
Although would be surprised if CityAM managed to get the scoop before their peers.
Nice movements of SP today - has got to be anticipation of results as it bucked the air line trend.
Half decent results and a Coup leading to instant end to war combined would be such a happy outcome.
Bodes pretty well that we not seeing any significant selloffs ahead of the long weekend.
Investors appear to have a bit more confidence today.
I guess we have some good headlines to look forward to.
De-escalation of war,
Global covid rates declining again ( happening now),
US to stop mask wearing and any remaining covid measures,
Possible oil deals - venezuela/Iran,
May results- set to be positive ,
I love it when he predicts a crash - always means it's going to go up.
That guy has some special 'insider info. He said so himself. I believe him to be honest.
There is no way someone can get it wrong 100% of the time - its statistically impossible. So he must using that inside info - but maybe holding the graph upside down.....
Woody, very interesting to hear that consensus. Obviously I take everything with pinch of salt.
Speaking of recessions. Would be good to get a few opinions on how likely we think this is in the next year. We have China collapsing in slow motion due to property and covid, Russia/Ukraine economic fallout, world wide covid hangover and supply chain/workforce shortages.
Do we think we are heading for another global crisis? I have a lot of my money in the stock market so I'm watching this like a hawk.