Member Info for danl90

Copper is staying up but Freeport mc is heading lower so I’m unsure which way it opens tomorrow

Sold a chunk at 294 so happy to see it open lower tomorrow

It’s flying right now!!!!

https://www.mining.com/web/saudi-arabia-of-cobalt-congo-eyes-battery-metal-price-power/

Trafigura again! Especially in DRC where Glen has a long history

This type of deal does feel a bit ESG risky though? Perhaps better to stay away as last we need is a picture of a child digging cobolt that glen then sells

Fair shout

US job numbers look good!

Trafigura seem to be getting more and more active

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/033121-trafigura-new-caledonia-group-complete-takeover-of-vales-goro-nickel-cobalt-unit

Wonder why Glen didn’t get involved here?

You’re 100% right billy. As we know it’s misunderstanding of debt but that looks like it’s getting sorted (and fast) and coal not fitting the ESG (aren’t we doing gods work) that all funds are jumping on atm. There was an article posted below saying coal use is going up again next year so I really think we should spin coal off very soon as the outlook looks positive

What’s your thoughts on copper price staying up?

I think the resets of bank facilities is a huge positive. Locking the top end at $13billion is a huge chunk off where we were at the last update

It shows how insanely cash generative we are atm and hopefully new management having a more prudent view to debt

Slash it boys!

“ CITIGROUP RAISES GLENCORE PRICE TARGET TO 400 (300) PENCE - 'BUY'”

Would anyone be happy with this?

Good post

A firm commitment from Glen and even with $12.7bill of facility every business wants some headroom from here so as the article says they will be looking to press even lower

All that debt reduction will convert to equity value

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/what-is-in-bidens-infrastructure-bill-package-american-jobs-plan-2021-3%3famp

Looks decent and at $2 trillion is it more likely to pass?

Good to see that China PMI numbers were very good today

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/033021-chinas-copper-concentrate-tcs-touch-10-year-low-squeezing-smelter-margins

So it appears that smelters are slowing production as the current high prices are delaying copper purchases. This may explain the additional copper that is makings it's way to the LME etc

Ultimately this becomes unsustainable and creates a copper crunch down the line? If all manufacturers etc use up inventory hoping for the price to fall in 2 - 3 months when inventories are used up everyone will be in the market looking to purchase at the same time? Therefore driving prices back up

PMI data was strong out of Europe and also China so the world is clearly at work and "hoping" the price will fall seems wishful thinking to me

Wednesday will outline Bidens plans for green USA and while that won't be relevant to spot prices it will show the long term demand

Ultimately Glen might have a rough ride due to inflation but I do see a copper crunch in H2

Added to this Chile is in lockdown and while this hasn't impacted mines it could

Even more of it showing up in the LME!

Hopefully we see the world getting back to being double busy over the summer

Agree both but the £12billion debt I used in my calculation above is not marketing debt as as you say that debt is equally hedged to an asset

The $16billion debt is general corporate debt and that’s what need to be lowered

As worth noting it’s “net debt” which means the debt can still be with the bank just glen holds more cash on its balance sheet. Paid off debt or just leaving the cash on the balance sheet. The point is that this would transfer in value to our shares :)

Agree and 0 debt isn’t efficient Im just saying the EV that will transfer from debt to equity as the business generates cash

This cash will come to shareholders in one form or the other either paying the debt or specials

Paying the debt down to $0 should get the share price into 370s just on the transfer of value from debt to equity

There could then be a re rate based on being a business without gearing and highly cash generative

As I said holding coal assets will be a cap on the top end value

I’ve a feeling this ship will move tonight

The futures you’re referencing closed on Friday evening. They don’t open again until tomorrow morning

Qz yeah I think the ship will budge today. Even if not fully moved if it budges the market will look past the current blip

If it doesn’t move today then could be really interesting!

Can you see futures prices today? I thought even futures were closed?

Vroom, vroom, vrooooom!

Oh wait? Ha

You’re spot on billy. I think what’s good about merc entering the race is that they have the brand to sell in EU. I can’t see families queuing up to buy China EVs in U.K. and EU

It’s all positive

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/mercedes-unveil-flagship-electric-sedan-tesla-beating-battery

Mercedes now in the ring.
“Mercedes will be making eight fully electric cars on three continents”

Some other insights into VW and BMW as well

Really think EVs will come faster than expected especially as the price of them continues to fall and charge ports roll out