Member Info for danl90

The EU issue, if not fixed by results and next year expectations, could lead to a material fall in the share price. Boo has market expectations of 25% yoy growth

Given EU is c10-15% of the business any material headwind here will be problematic. The EU warehouse needed to protect boo from this issue is likely not going to come soon!

Also the rising £ is negative for boo. As a fair amount of manufacturing is done here boo aren’t picking up much of the cost saving from a strong £ but all that US growth is now being unwound by the rising £ which as U.K. investors you’re after £ earnings!

Sorry I missed on the Debs point

- but Debs for boo brands and the makeup will flow through the platform and not cost a penny extra

@people have you bumped your head? I’m the advocating and promoting platforms! I’m the one saying this is great and worth billions in value to boo

It’s rag whos saying your most valuable asset is not worth anything and doesn’t believe a platform is real

I’m talking boo up here not down!

At mudis you’re right that the market will go flat and those with platforms will be the winners. This is why you’re seeing smaller businesses who might be great brands but don’t have a platform having to do partnerships (reiss with next, M&S doing 11 brands this week or hut group with its 100s of partnerships doing the same). So yeah you’re right brand does count certainly but you will need the platform to be in with a chance.

This is the future and why boo bought Debenhams as for items outside of clothes boo can create an all under one roof offering

@people what does rag see? He gets an order to produce some clothes. He sends them to the warehouse. Nothing more. As I say he wasn’t even aware of the huge difference in boo data test and repeat vs how it was done 10 years ago.

What business do you work in? Ask yourself how much about the inside workings of your business do your suppliers know?

@people I don’t think you’re reading Rags posts he is saying there is no such thing as a platform! You’re sticking up for him but disagree

He doesn’t have first hand experience. He supplies them. No insight into the data strategy, marketing, brand, logistics etc that goes on inside boo. He just leaves the t shirts he made at the door

It’s clear he hasn’t much insight as he
1) doesn’t think a platform is real (all fast fashion ceos disagree and are screaming about theirs)
2) he’s described his version of a platform which is “just a website” again all ceos disagree
3) thinks somehow boo’s test and repeat model is no more insightful than how it was done 10 years ago. Wow really?

So what experience is he showing? He has described the most valuable element of this share as just “words”

Honestly the way he disagrees with everything the ceo wants to do, the business model and the proposition you’d think he was short! There’s nothing he agrees with on this stock so why hold it? They are running this business the opposite to what he wants yet he’s in?

That’s literally stupid

But people you never answered who has better experience of what a platform is JL, next CEO and asos CEO or Rag?

You need to re-read his posts

@people my mother’s side of the family are Irish. I’ve never seen cards for st Patrick’s day

So you want figures. The debt at Jan-21 (RNS trading update - not sure why you were looking at months old accounts? Your “learning” never shows for much) was £90m down from £119m the year before. So despite covid and stores closed they paid off £29m of debt. That’s how insanely cash generative this business is

Before covid EBITDA was £80m this was no real online or an app and also the £ was weak. £ is now up so our cost base falls (raw materials) and card can challenge moonpig etc as card runs a cheaper and more efficient vertically integrated model

Debt at £90m and a prudent assumption of £50m EBITDA means this business is back below covs. It’s not a debt issue its purely a lack of trading issue

They might raise an amount of money in next few weeks but £6m on way from rishi to pay to reopen stores and the app/ online has been bringing in money too so. All Mother’s Day gifts online were sold out! Clearly the banks are comfortable with what they see as they keep waiving. If they didn’t like it they would have demanded an RI

Also picked moonpig and Dr M as they ipo’d in the same week so exactly the same market conditions, both new entrants and both with unproven city records

Probably should have made that clearer. Obviously been listed for longer and have a great track record can get your stock a premium (or vice versa) so the comparison works well with moonpig and Dr M as they are neutral from a market persceptive

@rag no I’m comparing the value of having a “platform” much like boohoo’s platform will now start pushing beauty through itself or Asos now push bits of homewear. The point is that the platform is the value and allows you to scale out additional products and items. I think this is your problem you see too much as pennywise and not as value

I could use Not on the High street which sold recently for an extremely high multiple or Hut group (where analysts say it’s ingenuity platform is valued at 80x)

The point is what makes moonpig so valuable is the platform and it’s use of data which Dr M can’t do.

Which has a stronger brand? Dr M.
Which has better heritage? Dr M.
Which has unique and timeless products which can’t easily be ripped off? Dr M.
Which has a core of faithful customers which have stayed loyal for decades? Dr M.

Yet despite Dr M winning all of those things which you’ve said before are so key to fashion a £1 from boohoo or moonpig is worth twice what a £1 from Dr M is worth

As I say it’s not just me telling you want a platform is so is JL, so is the guy from Next and ceo of asos. Here’s Nick describing Asos’s platform when they bought topshop

“Nick Beighton, Asos CEO, said in a statement: “ The acquisition of these iconic British brands is a hugely exciting moment for Asos and our customers and will help accelerate our multi-brand platform strategy. We have been central to driving their recent growth online and, under our ownership, we will develop them further, using our design, marketing, technology and logistics expertise”

How many more examples do you want of what a platform is? Again asos clearly saying it includes logistics

And as I say. Why do you want to not have a platform as then your shares are worth £2.20. That’s a far fall from here!

@people I’m quoting JL, the next Ceo and now asos ceo. Rag is a supplier (like the farmer he drops the milk at the door he doesn’t see inside or know the recipe for the yoghurt). Who do you think has a better understanding of fast fashion. The three I have quoted above or ragtrade?

Both of you own these shares and you want them to go up? I’m telling you this is how they go up hence why every single business is either building a platform, screaming about their platform (last two updates from JL and it was first thing said - go listen to JL rag - people I thought you did?) or they are having to piggy back into other peoples (this why M&S are “partnering” with so many brands so quickly - yeah was my point rag re marketplace)

didn’t M&S just add 11 brands in a single week? So my point was that marketplace can be ready to run pretty fast well there’s a pretty good example! You even shared the article! You got all excited about scaling up burtons when as I said You can pause burton if you want and partner. M&S see their fashion is rubbish so they are partnering their way to suggest and relevance

11 brands in a single week - welcome to 2021

What you mean haven’t answered anything?

I’ve shown you that all the big dogs in the industry define “platform” (JL and Next Ceo but many others) they all define it the same way as me. This was the main thing I was trying to answer. That the biggest thing to happen in your industry in 10 year “isn’t just a website” it’s intregating an entire end to end solution laced with data and technology.

I also showed you (moonpig vs dr m) to very clear examples of how being a “platform” creates and is seen as more variable. So you denouncing what a platform is or exists only means your shares are worth less. So what exactly do you want to achieve? A share price of £2.20?

I gave you a clear example of how “test and repeat” is far more superior under a tech and data approach rather than flinging a few bits to a handful of stores and seeing what happens. Somehow you think the two are comparable?

And tbh you didn’t ask any questions you just gave some long winded stories and show how you’re only actually half of the industry ie the farmer supplying the milk but you aren’t aware what’s going on in the yoghurt factory. You think brand is the only thing driving it. The white vs Grey etc I mean that’s a small cog. I’m not thinking even wheels here it’s looking at the whole car. You can tell you only see such a small element of the businesses you supply. Bring the milk and drop it at the door

Worth reading the moonpig admission doc it’s really rich with explanation. They even quote that the data engagement (something boo do) is responsible for a material part revenue growth. So it’s certainly worth while especially when boohoo is aiming for 25% yoy

Very odd how all these ceos, investors and research analysts seem to not know something ragtrade knows. Should you replace JL?

I mean you disagree with him on so much
- he doesn’t know what a platform is
- he allows mark down model
- he has publicly said won’t sell third party clothes through Debs but you know he def is (is he mentally stable?)
- his test and repeat data model is the same as topshop. Should they fire all the tech heads?

I mean if the ceo has it that wrong why do you hold a stock you think should be valued lower? I mean you want Dr M p/e right?

Quote from a newspaper on the Debs acquisition

“ John Lyttle, Boohoo chief executive, said: “We have developed a successful multi-brand direct-to-consumer platform that continues to disrupt the markets that we operate in. ”” - it’s not just a website that disrupts

“ Boohoo rival Asos also stocks other people’s brands, but it tends to buy the stock in and distribute it like a wholesaler, whereas Boohoo will be merely providing the digital sales platform for its new third party brands. ”.

Even the press know the plan! Ha

No rag I’m not defining it what a platform is boohoo are and next and Amazon

I have given you the quotes above. Read the next one explicitly talking about the logistics elements too. I think you call me an accountant as actually you’re the one without the vision and that upsets you. You’re just bits of detail grey and white etc. No I think in a much higher level and drive value

Why do you want to be right here? Your shares would be worth far less. You think JL is just calling it a platform to fool me? And somehow Morgan Stanley and the other funds all around the world are on the hook too? Do you think these billion pound funds are just full of window lickers?

I’ve just shown you clear as day. Retailer (dr m) and a what is just a card seller but badged as a “platform” it’s worth a tonne more. So why do you want to talk a £1 off your boohoo shares? If there is no platform here that investors believe they can scale into then well your shares are worth about £2.20 (maybe less tbh). So what really is your point?

I mean the next example is quite clear they literally say we’re keeping the reiss website and sticking into the platform which is logistics etc

You’re thinking of a platform as like a box to stand on so can people can sell your rags. It’s not that buddy to us value guys.

But yeah smooth interaction between the whole thing. Platform it’s worth a £1 a share to you atm

Here’s a quote from fashion united (a trade rag of yours) on next

“ The retailer’s CEO Simon Wolfson told the Telegraph that the company has been “quietly” building a platform over the past year that will allow it to run other fashion brands’ websites and back-end operations.

Brands will then pay Next a fixed percentage of sales for the service, called Total Platform”

Back end operations

Also re next doing store test and repeat of course they still will as 1) they have a store estate and 2) older demographic that isn’t all online

I thought you’d be able to see the nuances? Ha my point was that the boo method is superior not that there aren’t people still doing the old way

Pick an A store and that city hates it you think “don’t make that item” might have been a huge success in Liverpool but you never knew that. Boo would as they see the whole country not just a pot luck sample of stores

Also what else did the customer look at? Did they size up or size down? Did they change their mind on colour? Did they add it to basket and wait for a while? If so how did we help convert the sale?

Can you know that from sending all to a few random stores? No you wouldn’t even know the names of the buyers never mind if they are actually a medium bought all bought oversized

Data and how you use it is part of the platform landscape

But like I say if you’re right and this concept doesn’t exist you’re looking at £2.20 (at most)

@people you also have to hit market expectations which you won’t if your sales stall into your third biggest market!

I asked which countries they ship via as you asked that

I thought and someone correct me if I’m wrong but the FD said it all comes to U.K. and then goes out from here and that’s what was creating the VAT clawback issue (ie good from France if returned have to come back to U.K.)

I’m sure has asos has a EU warehouse so they can probably get around this but boo don’t? So they are stuck with extra paper work and higher costs which customers won’t stomach especially as the Chinese are better and cheaper

So big picture atm? About a third of your business is up ***** creek

What other countries are they shipping via? If so how do they do fast delivery?

Also I think it’s more that the pricing is now hugely impacted a £30 jacket is costing €45! That’s crazy and didn’t used to be that far apart so clearly boo is trying to pass cost to customers

I guess the question is - will customers pay a premium for boo clothes when Shein was already so much cheaper, more popular on social media and (from haul videos) better quality

I mean what is the positive here?

I’d be concerned about EU sales. What would that mean if boo was priced out of its third largest market?

You don’t need to answer it. Whatever you can say would just be words. If topshop could do what asos and boohoo could do it wouldn’t have been so wedded to sell via asos. And instead it would have been aggregating brands like the rest are doing

It’s unfortunate but it wasn’t fully cut ready for it. As you’ve said in the past doing a “sort of” test and repeat to 300 stores on small quantities is just hit and hope compared to boo’s data driven model which can cover the whole of the U.K.

Lots of small bits

Value example for you

Moonpig - 25x P/e ( you remember what P/e is again?) - admission docs says "platform" 177 times as that's the value driver

Dc Marten - great brand but just a retailer - P/e is 12x or so

Sooooo do you want boohoo to have a platform or not?

@rag - easy i did quite a good explanation for you a few days ago but also pre-christmas. Just quick but this is a extract from boo results re platform (they have added further colour in the past)

"The new brands are operated through our multi-brand platform, which provides immediate efficiency in the key operational business functions, such as logistics, IT, e-commerce and administration. " - so you can see it's a lot more than a website "platform" refer to how they all link and talk and also interact with the customer ie use of data

yeah lots of companies can do this but can they do the scale and speed of boo? Especially with test and repeat how fast do all these parts need to create, spot and develop trends and products? No one else can do that as fast

Next also re platform on the reiss acquisition (this was the first line of your post)
"Reiss' website and online operations will be contracted to Next through the Next Total Platform, which will provide warehousing and distribution services for Reiss' retail, franchise, wholesale and concession businesses"

So quite clear on this one that the Total Platform isn't a website is just the shop window. It's the parts behind it and how fast it can all react

Yeah each individual part so in total it's just a "word" but it's what makes your boohoo shares worth what they are. You seem to disbelieve in it? Is it becasue you want your shares to be worth less?

Zoom looks like an early marketplace (shop window) but it not clear on how it's a platform also interesting part about chinese wall and how they won't look at third party data/ sales which is key for how asos spot trends (you've said this yourself). Also asos 100% have that data and they use data to drive engagement and further sales. So looks like a decent idea for 1999 but in today's world it's primative

Also the divi point re arcadia isn't really useful as that was paid in 2005 and boo started later (ipo was 2014?). You've mentioned previously about topshop investment in a warehouse etc so starting to build for a platform and better integration but alas too late

Hope this helps. It's only the biggest thing to happen in your industry in the last 10 years

@people none of that addressed any financials

This doesn’t have loads of debt at £80m EBITDA (pre covid) this would be one of the lowest geared businesses in the Ftse

Boo’s chairman was SELLING his shares in huge chunks he’s only having to buy them back (twice now!) as the stock has no floor when it’s falling. He wasn’t choosing to buy them but rather forced to!

The month to month basis is as it refinance. They won’t roll terms as a new facility will come in. This is common when you refi

At Patrick’s days isn’t huge in England and Wales where the stores are but card is vertically integrated (moon isn’t as strong here) so they can do printing and ranges quicker and cheaper

It’s not like amigo as our revenue won’t go bad it is just paused as the stores are closed due to covid. When they were open trading was 15% up vs pre covid

So what are you worried about? Compare this PE to boohoo

@dannyred the deloitte item is none news. Advisors are always engaged when you're speaking with banks. There isn't a FTSE firm without a big 4 doing something i mean you that with boo that a few couldn't as of current engagements

Also the timing of deloitte asking for the first round of money was pre the first set of waivers ie before christmas which at that point the world was different and there was no view to stores opening (covid cases rising hugely). The world is much different now and there is a clear path to re-opening

Variable change Dan

@rag i do still think JL is great. I've no issues with him I just don't get why you can't understand platform. Arguably the biggest thing to happen to your industry in the last 10 years. A lack of one brought topshop to it's knees

All those parts have to talk and be synced and work in harmony. They also have to have capacity to scale (this is the whole reason boo is buying brands btw). It seems odd that the farmer isn't aware why the yoghurt industry is changing

i'm here as I want to shed a bit of warning and wonder if i'm missing anything

JL LOVES his platform btw. Go back to the results presentation I think he talks about it 10/15 times? Its the VALUE driver in your equity story

https://www.boohooplc.com/group/our-vision-and-strategy

A useful link to how boohoo is planning to make your shares worth more - guess what is top of the shop?

You're right there are a lot of people who bought the Mar-20 dip and saw their holdings double and seem to think they knwo what they are talking about

- no understanding of the business model
- ability to read financial statements
- basic valuation methodology

and that is why they aren't sure if this is going anywhere fast and also why they hold £4 as some holy grail number although what £4 actually represents they aren't sure or could tell you

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/12/exports-to-eu-plunge-in-first-month-since-brexit-uk-economy

A big market for Boohoo where growth hasn't been too great last 12 months (good but not great - even a quarter of negative LFL performance)

Boo certainly seems to be impacted or incurring higher costs an example but there are 100's

https://www.boohoo.com/satin-printed-varsity-bomber-jacket/FZZ05534.html

https://fr.boohoo.com/blouson-bomber-satine-imprime-universite-americaine/FZZ05534.html

A £30 jacket is €45! Which is a steep difference and will surely eat into sales especially as Shein and others are already a tonne cheaper!

People are you a bit dim? Yes the stores are currently closed as there is a global pandemic. They will open April 12th this is why are waiving covenants

Honestly buddy you just post stuff but it’s clear you do t actually understand what any of it means

They just launched online and an app to address the problems above. Online growing at 140% atm and on app atm I can see all Mother’s Day gifts are sold out so seems to be going ok. And stores open again soon