Member Info for Danger_Mouse

Just to confirm the 2022 payout was 1.5p so that 7.3% at 20.6p. but that included the 3 payments at the start of the year at lower rates. We only get to 8.35% if we *presume* the 0.143p paid on a monthly basis persists for 12 months of 2023. I3E are still a growth company so I favour increasing production with on a small increase in dividend up to 0.143p a month.

Lovely read G_G_G I am a bottom buyer on HZM but gunnery in profit so had sold around 122p. Back to oil, many do believe we could be near the bottom structurally.... it is also getting very cold for gas.

G_G_G if the divi does not increase you will be selling down to buy what given that Shell and BP yield under 4.5% and we are 5.7%? Perhaps GKP and Petrobas lol? But I do understand your point as shareholders should expect to be paid more for holding a small caps. I think 7% has a nice ring to it. A small increase will happen as to be seen to be progressive but a focus on growth of more oil and gas wells is the priority wherever that may be.

Pound down (good), i3 on TSX up (to be expected cos of pound) and VET up (to be expected cos of pound).

VET's technical are almost a-front load of what to expect here... VET MACD lines crossed a couple of days ago. DEC similar but not as tightly correlated as VET. ITE really does look to go up in the weeks ahead. The price of US oil companies (typically found on SPOG) is high versus pockets of value available including the stuff in ENGY index where I expect money to move into.

We're all basically buying in the danger zone of pretty much every technical of any trader... this is one of those stocks that is so undervalued it will flip extremely quickly on the news for investors looking forward to cash from operations. The director selling is a drag but we have an institutional buyer at above today's price and buy backs.

I don't know Eric Nuttal but he does NOT share the view of I3E who does want growth and not for it to be all paid out like DEC. Anyway, I have to be off now as I have just spotted a lonely tree out the window.

So whos frustrated? Not many. But low volume can be just as powerful a mover of SP as high. I guarantee you frustrated investors are selling here and buying the majors or index or something else. New investors too are being attracted to the majors. What matters to many investors is the past 3 months sadly. This is why a diverse portfolio is important and allows us to add more until one day a big II wants in and the SP here goes up 20-30% in the space weeks or days.

"Dont get frustrated GGG - just run the numbers and make sure you include for everything - simples !" - You can do all the number crunching in the world but in the short run these frustrated investors need to all capitulate before this can go up. That is why in the short run you see rubbish stocks outperform because net sellers are all out.

The number one priority for any business outside of the UK is growth ahead of dividends. This has been the view for the last 30 years but is a view that may change with higher inflation. I3E has the flexibility to tick 2 boxes (3 would lack focus) but for me as long as growth is ticked I don't care if they opt for buybacks as the dividend is already pretty good!

Seller is still about but seems OK selling at 70p so Tyrus Capital or other must be happy to pay this amount along with the buybacks. The Pacific regions on a bit of an upward motion with the Trust PHI holding shares in JSE I hope Baillie Gifford would look to add. JSE is down a staggering 19% YTD with a massive 24% upside to the 200-day moving average and a dream 55% upside to last years trend making this one of the most blown-out contrarian picks.

Still for now we are still in the red part of the MACD lines and not looking to cross the RSI lines but news would blow these out.

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In the first episode of our Private Equity Miniseries, Simon speaks to Robert Hamilton Kelly, Managing Director of Petershill Partners. They've raised over $10 billion of P.E. capital since 2007, investing in private equity and alternatives businesses at the GP level.
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Mr Kheraj had again bought a further 50,000 at 177.8p.

Either he knows better (and should) or this turns out to be one big falling knife.

Back to lows, profit lost apart from 30% that I sold. I have added 2nd batch to double up. Hoping for RNS for Christmas.

Any buybacks may have a benefit to the dividend over a number of years (not one) but we are made up of many private investors who want quicker gains. Buybacks also help sellers get out. Personally, I would put a little bit more money into PR and I am happy for the cash to be added to support the market cap and bank the increasing dividend. The performance of VET is a concern but the I3E technicals on RSI and MACD show that we may soon be over the net selling pressure.

"Is the Federal government thinking about introducing a Wealth Tax on energy companies?" - You mean a Windfall Tax. The Liberal government has no plans to bring in a windfall profits tax, claiming our oil and gas companies already pay their fair share through carbon pricing and environmental regulations. This view is likely to change *IF* the US action a Windfall Tax.

OK. All I now know is the details of gas hedging are here and the price 3.90C$/GJ in Q4 but I just don't get the overall % that is hedged. 3,214,025 of what total for the quarter?
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/i3_energy/news/rns/story/x8796pw

I just don't get how to calculate the percentage of gas hedged.





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I am in the accumulation phase. Granted my bottom-up research is vastly lacking on this one and I am invested here from a geopolitical and a technical weakness point of view. I wish to understand a bit more about hedging that I know is part of I3E's sound strategy.

Last question then I promise not to annoy the more experience here... do we have any gas hedging in place? Gas is typically up 10% today vs Oil down 4%.

Director sells and the oil price moving in a nearer-term downtrend are massive headwinds. I also have dry powder but have been deploying dry powder to others rather quickly so pausing this month to maintain a diverse portfolio by sector!

"Talking about a re-rate in the current environment is pure fantasy."
And surely not from a dividend hike. IE3 need to be more like Glencore than say RIO. The re-rate will come either this winter if it gets really cold but likley next winter when Europe need more imports of gas without it being Russian gas.

conrad02 wrote: "Not sure energy price has much to do with SP, more the MMs making hay, while the sun don't shine. OUR SP been much higher when oil was 60 $ a barrel!"

It can feel like that. I believe we are simply waiting for those 5p buyers to exit and for some who have made large losses to capitulate. A good indicator is when the share price crashes under the longer-term 200-day average and it has by -15%.

So in the short run, most share prices go from overvalued to undervalued with net sellers and back again. We could easily go up to 30%+ when the real winter bites. The number crunching on this forum is excellent. Many thanks.