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No. Would be my guess. Then what do I know?
If there is one thing that I’ve learnt in the last 2 years that I can share. Investing in a startup is not for the meek or faint hearted.
I’ve had a rule and I’m sticking with it. I have 10K more to invest. That’s it. I refuse to part with it until I see 5 days of continuous rises. That’s an indication of movement and a change in sentiment. Anything else is just a “blip” and we’ve seen that play out several times before.
This is a great product. It has LOADs of potential. However, nothing suggests to me that we are going to see a shift in sentiment and the rate rise I would need to provide confidence that something is happening in the background!!
Watch this space I guess.
Like your optimism but we’ve been here before!
Really good to see CBX heavily feature at London Fashion Week!!
If anyone had a doubt about this being a luxury product and placement then their prime placement at this event should settle the dispute!!!
Startups need to grow quickly to be successful. They do this by acquiring new customers and expanding into new markets (done both USA and UK with more in the pipeline). To do this, they need to spend money on marketing and sales (we know they have done loads of that BUT what is the impact)???. Marketing is how startups get their name out there and attract new customers. It can be expensive, but it's essential for early-stage startups (not sure that we have hit the right notes)!! We have spent money the return on that investments could take years. Most start ups do not turn a profit in the first 5 years. I'm NOT surprised by the figures.
Startups need to sell their products or services to make money. They need to invest in sales staff and processes to do this effectively. Startups also need to invest in research and development (R&D). This is how they create new innovations and solutions to industry problems (we know there is a pipeline).
What this company have done is lost consumer confidence!! They need to regain market trust!!
I have to laugh at some of the observations on here!!! Most companies don’t break even until year 5. FACT. It’s not make believe or anything out of the ordinary.
R&D and advertising ALWAYS outstrips sales in the first 5 years. It’s not unusual.
This is a start up. Cash burn is always fierce. Tesla had a similar trajectory, similar cash spend on R&D. It’s not unusual.
Momentum is what we need. I would have gone for exposure and direct to door marketing. I had suggested Birchbox. That’s dead in the water in the U.K. - I thought it was a good fit as it had an American division. However, the U.K. business folded. However, the concept is sound. Glossybox have over 1 million subscribers. That’s another distribution channel.
The spend without a plan is scary. Agreed.
Personally the product is awesome. Packaging and the whole “package” is great. Getting the placement right and momentum has faltered. I reckon they have something on the tank!! Don’t know what, but I reckon they have something!!!
Let’s wait until end of April. Let’s see what they bring to the table.
Prich, it is a luxury brand. That’s why placement is important. The price point dictates it’s placement and they got it wrong.
Glossybox is direct sales and product placement to over 1 million potential customers. Exposure is everything. The magazines (in my opinion) should have come after placement. However, I’m not in advertising and marketing so it’s not my area. I know enough tj know they missed important opportunities. They missed momentum, goodwill and the buzz around the brand and launched flat!!!
They can turn it around. I’m invested too. I have faith in the product. They have the lux branding it’s placement and distribution - that’s a missing link. If needs to be seen on shop shelves. It needs to be seen in the cabinets of influencers. The world of marketing has changed. CbX initial strategy was weak and behind the times.
I believe they can turn it around.
Prich, what demographic is that then?! They do. And they buy in abundance.
You still invested?!!
Glossybox ?!!!
Same direct marketing campaigning.
Direct to door samples!! It’s not difficult.
Selfridges has significant brand value. I’ve read on here that it’s ONLY got 4 stores!! Harrods only has 1 store. Your point is what exactly?
Both of these stores are synonymous with luxury. Product placement either store would be a huge milestone. The demographic and the online reach to register right customer is phenomenal.
I hope that’s the case!! I truly do.
THEN I want to see Birchbox leading into Christmas 2023.
I would look to see brand advertising in the Heathrow, Gatwick, etc. There is a demographic we are targeting and they don’t tend to shop for their luxury brands at Tesco or Amazon!!
100% agree. I’m greatful for the share.
Please note that this analysis is VERY polar and I must admit that I do question some of the summaries. Especially business summaries. The trading summary is fair.
The majority of business; on average, do not start turning a profit until the 3rd year! FACT.
Does anyone know the Tesla Story? Tesla took 17 years to turn a profit.
Why? Innovation, R&D and it was years before they took a product to market and when they did they had issues to resolve!!
So whilst I really appreciate the share and the visuals are great it’s very polarised and lack business acumen skill and observation.
This product is innovative. Like Tesla they have experienced regulatory issues. Like Tesla funding is an issue. In 2008 Tesla nearly went bankrupt. June 29 2010 Tesla rang the opening bell. Share price $1.59. June 22 2012 share price $2.25. Share price 2014 $10.01. Sept 2015 share price $16.44. Share price June 2016 share price $14.64. Share price 2017 $22.34. Share price Sept 2019 $19.92. June 2020 market cap grew and share price $68.34. Jane 2022 share price $243.26. April 2022 share price $352.42.
When you innovate in a space it takes time money, research and development, and list of mistakes are made. The difference between Tesla and CBX is that Tesla made most of its mistakes before the IPO. To raise capital the had to raise capital.
I have faith in the PRODUCT. It’s innovative. It’s first in the market place. I’m happy to give this business the benefit of the doubt. This is a tough market but they can turn it around!
I really appreciate that you’ve shared this. For my part I believe that it can be turned around.
The analysis is done by a trader and it’s very polar. It’s a fantastic visual. I think it’s honest but it’s not holistic.
I believe there are several variable in play that are currently unknown. I feel that after financial year end (April) there will be some movement.
As the illustration says they do have enough capital to keep going for the next 2 years. They have operating channels and distribution lines. They now need to capitalise on them.
I imagine they will raise capital for their existing shareholders. It’s about transforming and product placement. They have misjudged the demographic. Product placement has been shambolic!! This product should be placed in Selfridges, Harrods, Fenwicks, Flannels, and I would also like to see it in the beautiful and perfume shops in Heathrow, Gatwick etc. There were no gift pack in these stores leading up to Christmas. No direct marketing with Birchbox.
The influencers. I think having a supermodel on-board is pretty cool. However; she not an influencer. Molly Mae is an influencer. That demographic might be an opportunity. Brooklyn Beckham and Nicole are influencers & A - list celebrities. They are probably in the right demographic for this product. Especially Brooklyn. He’s culinary skills have been slated for being extravagant. However, all publicity is good publicity. He might make a perfect choice!!
Anyway, still a lot to play for. Who knows what tomorrow brings.
What I like about Ocado is they are not a "one trick pony". They have made some bold strategic moves. The are in the online grocery business, and they sell their technology proposition globally. This makes them vulnerable to a global economic downturn but spreads the risk by territory. I'm confident in the direction of the company. Very confident. Good leadership at the top with a clear sense of direction. They have invested in their technology and are coming to the market place with a unique proposition. Imagine they have a health pipeline in the technology space and will weather out any territory inflation challenges. I sense that the markets are frustrated and thus the downgrade. Frustration is not rational and I suspect that the sentiment will change on this share very quickly.
I'm more optimistic today. Sounds counter intuitive??
It was CBX that backed out of the deal. Why? Maybe there is something in the pipeline regarding regulatory reform? Maybe there is something about to be signed regards distribution channels?
I'm reserving judgement.
Selfridges, Harrods, Flannels, Fenwick. BIRCHBOX!!!
I'm not in the slightest bit concerned about the RNS today. I believe there are some positive steps being taken in the background. Maybe a the regulatory framework is shifting??!!
I have no issue with the "oldies" *no reference to age but the journey we have been on. I do take issue with others with accounts less than a week old writing CRAP!! I have no issues the "oldies" venting their frustration. We are in a difficult economic period.
I'm still living in HOPE that they can turn it around. It is a GREAT product. There is no question in my mind about the product. The missed opportunities have been HUGE!!
I'm invested in this share. I have value tired up in this share. I have been on a very rough roller coaster ride.
QUESTION - why do people come on to this thread and tout a shed load of negativity? Now, the oldies, the ones that are sick to their stomach due to losses, please excuse yourself from this observation/comment thread, however the newbies? What's that all about?
I have noticed a HUGE trend especially in the this share. People with accounts less than weeks old, some even days, come onto this thread and spread a lot of negativity. Why? Seems odd behaviour.
There are a lot of what I consider "trolls" but on a low level share offering such as this can be called sentiment makers. I wonder if this share is a target to make the share price jump in a certain direction.
These are my musings and I would like to hear what other "oldies" think.
Nothing noteworthy to add from an investment perspective: I’ve lost a lot of money unless they can turn it around.
It’s a great product. Let’s not pretend otherwise. This is an amazing product line.
They had a window to deliver shareholder confidence and they blew it. How do you build shareholder confidence in a market environment that’s contracting? The board have missed so many opportunities for product placement
Why is the product not in Birchbox? Why was it not in the boutique placement arenas in department stores such as Harrods, & Selfridges? So many missed opportunities. February is the window to capitalise on the health market yet it’s lacklustre
Something needs to shift. Marketing needs to get their head out of the sand and have a real strategy for delivery. They are so out of touch it’s scary. Where are the influencers? Do they even know their demographic?
Not just supermarkets: why would they limit themselves
Very good strategy. I would suggest you get a return by June 2023.
Posted on here before.
This is a technology firm with its origins in grocery. It can weather the storm as it’s a global brand with a global technology proposition!
Reckon there is more to come!
My desire would be to see this product in Harrods and Selfridges.
Boohoo (Debenhams) is a value brand.
That aside, the positioning might be more to do with Boohoos long term future and the territories it’s looking to expand into.
“Our acquisition of the Debenhams brand is strategically significant as it represents a huge step which accelerates our ambition to be a leader, not just in fashion ecommerce, but in new categories including beauty, sport and homeware,” says Boohoo executive chairman, Mahmud Kamani.
Reportedly the plan now is to expand the Debenhams online offering and position the website more globally, opening it up to territories in North America and Australia.
I still see the problem being the “value” branding. I won’t go onto boohoo to buy a premium product. Maybe I’m missing something??