The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
was always going to be defeated - not enough support
Align the only really interested party in removing OSA - they will likely be looking to off-load their positions
Monecor already have been in the last few weeks - think that large 1.6m share sale was likely theres but no RNS
We just have to wait now for further update on AJE (PetroNor / Panoro) and the Barracuda Legal Dispute
By 4th March we will have further information on probably both (hoping the AJE fiasco can resolved so phase 2 can at least start some progression)
Until then, I can't see much happening, probably won't raise capital in these next two months and will wait for after these two crucial updates (they strung the November raise a good few months after the coffers were dry)
A timely RNS, just a delay with court and still the injunction in place, OSA will be happy to get some form of update with vote today
games been played with vote on monday
honestly expect OSA to win the vote and still be in charge - can't see enough support
see how the market takes it
down today - i wonder if there is another big sell in the mix from Monecor
Happy New Year all
Hope everyone had a fantastic break, I was away but was ruined by getting the dreaded Covid
I don't see how the FCA are going to suspend - i think Roberts rumors and whats on twitter is tosh, they don't suspend on poor performance and subjective 'what needs to be disclosed'
We are still technically from the accounts solvent and trading as a going concern
FCA don't tend to get involved with trivial matters leaving it to the nomads to ensure that the correct procedures are met, i believe (like many others here (probably all)) that the Barracuda situation should have been disclosed but depending what advice was given by Nomad, we can't say it was a breach (sometimes legal issues can't be reported due to the process / gagging order etc)
In regards to OSA, i don't trust him, but neither do i think getting rid of him is best for the long term
Shame the PetroNor / Panoro deal is still delayed as this adds a spanner to my vote ( i might just not vote and let people with bugger holdings and more information vote) - i believe OSA will stay as majority of the votes held by the larger shareholders (mainly Hessia) are voting for him
Back to waiting here
Good Luck
Sticking with OSA in my opinon has a bigger chance of us going bust but also has the best chance of major rewards
Monecor are the sellers by the TR1 - not Align
think i might stick with OSA - i never invested to break even
we have a 4.9% Equity Interest in AJE, further to this we have a 12.3% paying interest and a 9.2% profit interest
Se we are liable for 12.3% of Capex
We get 9.2% of Profits
The Operator has the largest Equity / and best deal at AJE but thats because they are the operator and always benefit from the better economics of a site
Its why I said when the proposed set up of Barracuda was given, it made us more the operator (ADME has the the better economics)
Its why I want rid of YFP as operator and it transferred (at least in part away from them)
No, there isnt too much new stuff (which considering the multiple deals Osa is working on) is one of the problems
The Expenses s you stated are higher than the BOD let on and it is primarily there salaries this relates too, very little in shares bought considering the amounts they have been paid
AJE has long term potential, but no actual cashflow and an internal audit in regards to this next year (i wonder if this is stalling the PetroNor / Panoro deal in any way)
other than Barracuda legal issues, we seem to have been in the same rut all year
Its been a Value Trap due to current operators - with the Panoro / Petronor deal, the operators change as well
This is the main reason why this deal needs to conclude asap - without it, there isn't any value left in AJE phase 1, and no real consensus on progressing phase 2 in a hurry
Few things:
EXPENSES
They make reference to the costs of the company and as spikey has said, primarily go to the BOD in regards to the expenses, they don't believe that OSA has cut these and the accounts submitted don't reflect any cost savings as originally outlined (actually they are increasing due to additional directors coming on board to apparently 'strengthen our technical team'
AJE SALE
The first thing I would do if elected to the BoD at the GM is push for the sale of ADM’s interest of 4.9% in OML 113. We estimate value here to be upwards of $15m. - this statement is similar to what i said and their value isn't too far from what i expected to be realistic - there is quick shareholder value in regards to selling this, c5p a share
No mention of Barracuda - assume with legals there are things they can't mention until legally resolved
Interesting to say that there was an internal conference call with major shareholders in August, no placing and one more big deal to be announced (with OSA resigning if not announced by end of December), he has literally days to announce this and with the issues with Barracuda, i don't think many people will be joining his side
After reading this statement, i do think that possibly best shareholder value is to sell AJE and get a dividend to shareholders, but i would be gutted as potentially losing a very good asset for a low amount which i do feel could be worth multiples of the $15m they state in the longer term
A lot of my vote may come on the Panoro / Petronor update, if this deal does conclude, i might feel tempted to keep OSA for the potential of greater returns in the long term
c£3200 share value i have right now
at c5p (based on sale for AJE ) it comes to c£20k (small profit)
i still think 20p to 25p on AJE is feasible if we enter full phase 3 production (£100k) and a good profit and thats what i am really here for with my investment
not many people have 1m shares, no trades for that much except recently / larger holders previously
It does seem strange to sell before the EGM considering they called it unless they have opened a short, called the EGM, sold and brought it down (the egm has been called so it will happen whether they sell or not) - so does RobertSham work at Align???
Im going to have a think on what questions to ask OSA - so many too ask - it would be good if we all asked a few different ones to try and get a fuller picture of what has happened, who the deal was with, what evidence and due-diligence was done on the legality of the KONH purchase etc
Its usually pre-submitted questions only
Hes obviously doing this Investor Call to try and save his job
looks like Align have sold another 1.5m shares today
We don't know - there is an audit been done due to discrepancies
i think Align are selling, thats 1.5m sold
we are only a small equity partner in AJE - it will primarily be debt in the partnership, so our outlay won't be huge if anything depending on the finance arrangements
We really need to understand how our transaction on Barracuda went through - its obviously a mess and our purchase was different to Zenith's, but also if we could legally get ownership of the contract as per the original agreement, we would have a decent asset in value terms - we could be seeing the option on selling AJE and Barracuda for a decent amount - maybe see 10p from sale - im not too convinces on what we have bought in Barracuda that was so cheap compared to Zenith's option
We don;t really need new deals at minute, we just need some stability, some times best way to grow is consolidate what you have
Keeping OSA
PROS are we are in it for the long haul on AJE - i have already stated that the economics in the future of this project are huge
CONS - we suffer more of the same in updates and incompetance in running an AIM company, we also require huge amounts of funds to pay the BOD and General expenses before any real income can come from Aje which realistically is 2023 at best
Getting Rid of OSA
PROS - probably means we will close ADME and hopefully sell AJE to interest party for a decent amount - clear all debts, cease legal action on Barracuda and repay Shareholders to form a shell
CONS - we lose all the potential in AJE and most will be underwater as 4p-5p will be best case scenario - depending on debts, this could be reduced quite quickly
ADM is pleased to announce in the meantime that, on 10 December 2021, it obtained an interim injunction restraining NHNL, its officers, agents, privies or person howsoever connected from selling, disposing, divesting or tampering with the 70% shareholding interest of KONH in NHNL to third-party investors or in any other manner whatsoever.
Its not that i think Align are any good, its just they have had a better look under the bonnet that us regular PI's will ever get
They as larger shareholders (and potentially debt holders reading the comments) will have had a lot more dialogue with the Directors over the last year , so it is concerning when they want to replace the BOD, but like the views on people here, while i am totally for getting rid of OSA, the question is who to replace him, have Richard Jennings who has from what i can see very limited experience in this sector
I thought about this, the only reason i can see that they would get involved is if they were looking to sell the Assets before the company debts got too high, i have openly stated that the Forced sale price of AJE is significantly higher than our market value, the align BOD do rub shoulders with other AIM Oil & Gas companies so maybe there is already some interest in our enlarged position in AJE and they are thinking, take over, sell AJE for maybe $8m quite easily, close all other ADME operations and sell the shell, this could get maybe 4p a share to us, they have 11.8m shares so were talking £472,000 plus probably repayment of any debt outstanding to them in probably quite a short time period
look forward to the Align update when proposed - interested to see their insight - they have a lot more than us on here
support 1-2
oppose 3 & 4
my gut says that Oliver Andrews would make a better CEO given his knowledge in the local markets
i actually dont think it will pass
Hessia Group Limited will most likely be with OSA (these shares were given to them for the purchase of part of EER's stake in AJE (remember OSA was in charge of EER previously) and the deal was done because of his reputation with them alone - so the biggest share holder with 17.83% of the shares is OSA friendly
7.39% of shares are in the 3 Directors hands that are been asked to leave
thats 25.22% in favor of OSA / 5.78% against
what is the %age required to change the Directors?
if it is 75% then this is already set to fail.
If it is 50%, it is going to be some task to get an additional 90m shares from the remaining 140m shares - most people wont bother voting but this is one vote everybody should vote
I'm not convinced in replacing the BOD with Align's CEO - need to do some due-dilligence but i have already stated that i think Align aren't great