Member Info for DanBrown83

Petronor wont give any money to ADME
we still need clarity on Project Debt level from Phase 1
PetroNor will introduce cash (as well as third party funding) as Project Debt into the partnership (this will likely be paid back to them under the Operators agreement at more than double the outlay)
So if PetroNor introduce $10m cash + $40m under a finance arrangement ( the partnership project debt will likely be more than $100m - this will be paid back prior to any profit distribution
This is typical of this type of agreement

Why previously i have stated, the money is been the operator (not the investor) in these projects and why the initial financial metrics for Barracuda looked so promising (albeit the whole Barracuda transaction is a nightmare with my hope we actually don't retain any ownership but we get some form of compensation)

There is no immediate income coming into ADME for any expenses

You still think we will need to provide physical cash into the partnership for AJE PROJECT DEBT
I think this will all come from borrowings and cash within the main operator (PetroNor have cash and other current assets in there accounts of around $26m) so there is a good chance we won't be called on for any funds and this injection will become part of the project debt

Wonder if the £2.7m in the Accounts was after or before the CAPEX meeting
certainly not enough with the 17th Lifting to clear it if so
I was surprised there was a 17th lifting - we knew they stopped production so to have one so late (i'm assuming with us getting a new FPSO for phase 2 - this was the last of the oil in there when it was passed back to owners)

18th Lifting wont be until Phase 2 starts - were not really going to expect this for another year at least

We received zero cash
The question is if there is any project debt left from phase 1 - we don't know
we have not been updated on this or from the supposed meeting with the AJE partners in i think April regarding the Project Debt and Capex queries that had been raised (remember with CAPEX we are likely paying more than double the actual cost to the current operator / while OPEX and repairs are at cost) the partners raised that OPEX COSTS were been but through as CAPEX COSTS by the Operator increasing the project debt significantly when it shouldn't

There is a good possibility that Project Debt has been repaid and that Phase 2 can hopefully commence next year

That is an interesting point Spikey, they don't mention project debt and mention phase 2 of AJE instead, good spot, do you think the project debt may now have been cleared and that all parties have agreed to the funds been used for phase 2- but that does sound a lot more positive - good spot

you are correct we will still need a placing for Admin Expenses but still nothing, overdue - so hopefully Directors are just waiting for the right time to keep dilution to a minimal

its actually a weird lifting - we know they aren't drilling and have no active wells and are replacing the FPSO
I can only assume this is the final oil in the wells that was in the FPSO that has now been sold now the Panoro deal has concluded
At lease this will give the JV a decent amount of revenue for Phase 2 development c$10m USD
our revenue is just over $900k on this lift (i know we don't get anything as cash) but it means any debt for phase 2 is greatly reduced )

Very positive to et a good cash injection into the AJE project

The tea & biscuits from the AGM are also on credit
used the last of the Instant Coffee so next meeting maybe costly

Why do you believe they will do this
also in regards to comments from Toldforthat last week - 'And they also mention the % of aje, which would match if they bought adme's stake and is added to what they already own.' - i can't find anything from Panoro in relation to this

Although a sale to Panoro wouldn't seem unreasonable, i can't find any comment anywhere that gives this any credibility

The Trafigura facility is more of an agreement they will look at investing into projects if they like them
no commitment at all from them, but it is something that could come to fruition and it is good to have in the background to look into for funding - but its not a facility we can just use as we feel like some have made it out to be

AJE won't sell for a lot until Phase 2 is commercial
I know when the Panoro / PetroNor deal was announced, people were claiming it was worth more because they bought a similar sized percentage for $10m + potentially up to $16.67m

that would value ADME stake at c$8m + $6.5m but people forget that Panoro are getting the operators licence on AJE (which is where the real money is)

Anyway - i await AJE plans for Panoro - will keep checking there website every couple of weeks

I'm sure the ploy was they were selling AJE and going to Mexico
While it was good news yesterday - it was expected (they only needed a 2 week extension at the end of June) so we knew this was extremely likely to happen this week
The next AJE update we need is on the Development Plan / how Panoro plan to cover the $30m CapEx (this was from last year so suspect maybe higher now) / updated timescales and forecasts

Hi Spikey, you have basically said a more detailed explanation of what i said - i wasn't invested at that time, i just remember the spike and that they were selling AJE to fund in Mexico - in the end neither happened and MX Oli were left with a high share cap and still only the AJE Asset (i believe at that time it was dormant or underperforming)

Anyway - Phase 2 and 3 of AJE is what will really define the AJE asset and ultimately prove whether this investment was worth it
I need just over 4p to break even - see the SP is back below 1p, so placing could be an issue - but hopefully we will get further news on AJE Development - i hope that all parties involved have been working on Phase 2 plans (as we were told by OSA they were) so that there are minimal delays, the good thing here is ADME have zero control on the project (were a minority partner in the project) so any success / failure on this cant be blamed on the ADME BOD

i remember that - i believe they were going to invest in Mexico with sale proceeds - so changed name to MXO

potentially - but no rush in placing if Directors just defer salaries (asking a lot)

15,000 boepd
say oil at $100 with a 5% discount (so $95 boe sale price)
costs were reduced but new wells, fpso - lets go high at $50 boe in all production costs and administrative expenses
$45 Gross Profit per boe
£30m CapEx to cover - no funds released to ADME until settled and lets assume 1st July 2023 Production
£30m CapEx covered from Profit in c50 days (add interest and costs per the production agreement (if similar to Barracuda) - lets say 4 months of Full Production until CapEx covered
say from 1st November 2023 - we can get our 9.2% of Profit
this would generate c$62,000 per day revenue to ADME by Christmas 2023

Agree there will be a placing soon - we know there has to be
we will find out exactly what the legal update on Barracuda in a few months - i have just discounted that for the time been
AJE PHASE 2

Expected to increase production to 15 kboepd (gross)
> 2021-22: Bring in a cost effective FPSO with + 110 mmscfd gas capacity
– OPEX USD ~30m/yr including FPSO bareboat, O&M and G&A
> 2024: Expand gas production capacity to 110 mmscfd through drilling of additional two gas wells
> Project planned split in upstream and midstream parts to maximize access to non-dilutive capital

Figures look good if they can be achieved by Petronor

AJE Phase 2 + 3 is why I invested
Great news it has finally concluded - we need to wait for the final plans on phase 2 / costs and how to be funded (probably the main part to be ironed out) but this is going to be the responsibility of the operator to sort, hopefully an off take agreement can be sourced which can fund this part with no cash injection from partners

I know - high Oil Prices and we are producing zero
board have nothing they can really do to help in any of this
in the mean time - we will be paying salaries (i hope they are deferring them / not taking them) as they really don't deserve anything

Could be either
1. We pay NHNL more and receive Barracuda
2. They pay us compensation and we drop Barracuda
either way, its likely another 4 months until we hear

Another 2 weeks on AJE to hopefully conclude, as Londonfish states, going to probably over a year until we get any sight of revenue from AJE

Positive RNS - looking for compensation instead of Barracuda - allowing NHNL to progress with Zenith
Hopefully will get a nice lump sum this year

Accounts were always going to be poor
We know there is zero cash in ADME right now - placing will be required but unsure how to do this without a consolidation or they do it at 1p but other a ton of cheap warrants to smooth it over
we really need to wait for Thursday - two RNS's hopefully (AJE is main one) as this is really where the progress of AJE has been held up
As I said, production on next phase has great potential - its what i bought in on the back of ( wish I had waited for a better price as I am well down) but (when / if) AJE goes into production on phase 2 next year - we will be at a lot higher price than we are now