The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
This has been the big problem and the reason there is going to be an internal audit with operator on the CapEx
Again, the hope is that New Operator and Phase 2 will eventually bring clear revenue into ADME, but the delays on the PetroNor deal probably means we are talking realistically 2024 before there has any chance of revenue
interesting but not exactly unexpected
we knew from forecasts that the existing AJE wells were virtually dry by the end of 2021
That sounds very positive on the injunction that Barracuda is actually ADME's
Spikey is correct - getting Barracuda has other problems but ideally the best outcome would be Barracuda is sold and ADME get compensation -
AJE UPDATE - still a further delay
PetroNor E&P ASA: Update on Aje Transactions
Oslo, 2 May 2022: With reference to the stock exchange announcement made 27 January
2022 regarding the government consent provided to PetroNor E&P’s acquisition of Panoro
Energy’s ownership interest in Oil Mining Lease no. 113 (“OML 113”) offshore Nigeria,
containing the Aje oil and gas field, and for the transfer of OML 113 to Aje Production AS (“Aje
Production”).
The final steps to complete the transactions are progressing well, but the parties need
additional time to finalise the documentation. As a consequence, PetroNor and Panoro have
agreed to extend the long-stop date to complete the transaction to 30 June 2022.
All other terms and conditions of the transaction remain unchanged.
Nigerian Court decision hopefully this week
They have got a CPR finally done inbetween
AJE waiting on completion of PANORO / PETRONOR
Kind of understood that very little would happen in Feb / March / April and that the first couple of weeks should have some movement on both Assets
don't think we could class them as reserves even if these were classed as bookable reserves until the court case had een concluded
the 'prospective resources' in the CPR report are decent, we need to wait until court to see if we are even going to progress the site, then we need to worry about proving up, further drills and then production - which all going to take significant CAPEX - but the economics of the deal is we get paid more the more we spend - so its a catch 22
The more we spend, the more we get
The more we spend, the more we are going to struggle with funding
In all honesty, the funding requirement is going to be huge, so it can't come from dilution - so its got to come from an actual proper funding source, likely to be repaid within a short period of time - the rates will be high
The CPR isn't too bad - decent reserves in the p90 column
still need to wait on courts - but i would be surprised if we aren't in driving seat as we couldn't get a CPR report easily without getting access to the field via our partners
The AJE field only has 2 wells and both were running pretty close to empty - so they may have ceased production
I have seen, more court fees too with a delay
i agree will likely need funds by then
until then - we await PetroNor / Panoro
sit back and wait - bigger things going on than ADME right now
To be honest, that should be looked into, especially as they do ‘marketing research’ for a lot of small companies, they know the rules and while I assumed they would / were dumping straight after the vote, we had no notifications, a full month is ridiculous but hopefully they are out now
Minimal Volume Spikey
1. Not enough positivity to encourage buyers
2. The Negatives have all come out now and its in a depressed state - most potential sellers are actually at a loss where it doesn't make sense to sell
3. Next viable update is on Legal Battle on Completion of Panoro / PetroNor (2 things that are well out of BOD's control) but have a big impact, so it is really a waiting game
While a 2k sale can drop price, a 2k purchase also pushes it up
ridiculous when you think of the mechanics of this can change a company valuation by £100k for such a small trade
hmm really
your 121 posts are all on one share
you only came a member in September 2021 - the same time as Align were starting to prepare the coup
as soon as the vote was unsuccessful - you disappeared for 3 weeks
all that's sounds to me your interests are aligned very closely with align
back after 4 weeks - did you get a bonus from Align after the failed coup???
things are going to be a bit stagnant here for a while -wait on Nigeria Courts and the Petronor conclusion
Hopefully can move into Phase 2 at AJE but this is will be next year, so probably some more cash calls in the interim - anyone actually have any idea on current production at AJE? - my calcs were that phase one should have ended but i am unsure how the works conducted last year impacted that - if we are still producing - i'm assuming its quite small quantities - cant see any update on any lifting since October
Where is RobertSham
last post was 14th January - disappears after the failure to get rid of OSA
It would kind of seem that his 'knowledge that there was an issue with Barracuda months before anyone else' may be related to this fact and that he was potentially posting with insider knowledge from Align
Governemnt Approvals complete - great news
Panoro RNS still expects to complete in next 90 days - so still some time to go but certainly a good step forward on AJE
That is true Spikey - any last real data we have seen is that every well drilled has been deemed non-commercial at the time of drilling
There have been CPR reports done and provided to ADME and Zenith since last well was deemed non-commercial
I said at the time, ADME's buy in price looked cheap and a lot of the consideration was based on first oil and milestones (i remember someone saying it was to good too be true) and OSA saying this was the best deal in terms of the economics he had ever seen - which both look laughable now
GEOWIZ - Me and Spikey already went through this last year, 4 drills to date and all deemed non viable (so what makes things so exciting now?) - both ADME and Zenith are obviously excited by whatever data has been provided and I would hope that our technical team and there's are skilled enough to analyse correctly and make the recommendation to each respective BOD
The other issue is the ownership and how ADME have legal ownership - i have mentioned a number of times (that the structure is really awful) as we have purchased a contract in Barracuda, through KONH which owns NHNL as a subsiduary (but apparently doesn't) as they rejected the proposal in August, yet we claimed the legal transfer was done on 28th April
The legal questions i'm assuming are:
1. Did the Legal Completion happen where ADME contractually puchase via KONH the indirect interest in Barracuda via NHNL on 28th April
2. If it completed, are there any Cooling Off period / Conditions to be satisfied and what were the terms (typically a lot of contracts have post completion requirements of maybe 3 months etc) - if say it was 3 months from 28th April (3 months would be 28th July and the NHNL documents say they declined 17th August (so maybe this was after 3 months of the contract and ADME have gone to Nigerian Courts and proved this been the case) so injunction been made for further investigation
3. if it didn't and we never legally completed the transaction on NHNL, we only completed on the purchase of KONH - the question here then becomes why didn't we complete on NHNL, what did our money actually buy and why were we never informed. - this is what NHNL are implying happened
Its a waiting game here - fingers crossed
I would of wanted the BOD to take part in the placing again tbh - even if it is a token gesture
£500,000 will only last a few months, unsure on the legal costs Spikey but I would estimate that these are substantial
Nothing much to spend on other than these items in reality unless they are working on a new asset, but my concern with that is that they need to focus on these two (especially AJE) when Panoro deal hopefully concludes
Didn't think they would do a raise before getting updates on AJE / Barracuda tbh
At this point, this safeguards the immediate future of the company -this realistically pays salaries and probably pays court costs incurred to date for Barracuda
a placing will be needed , just think it will be March now (after the decision on Barracuda)
If we lose - it will be funding for additional legal costs
if we win - it will be funding for Barracuda
If AJE gets resolved, it will be funding to implement Phase 2