History of analysis of North. Tobin and Norb19 Aug 2020 17:39
These are the previous posts from the TXP page.
Norb and Tobin are stars
Here is a rather funny fact about NORTH as it seems to be a really cheap entry to TXP compared to AIM and TSX based on its current MCAP. It closed at NOK 1,45 on Friday which equals a MCAP of MGBP 14,7. Of which cash equals 11,7. If we assume that the rest of their assets excluding TXP (no debt other than some minor liabilities and accruals) of MGBP 5,3 also can be sold to their current market value (primarily shares and bonds listed at OSX), their position in TXP is in fact valued with a negative amount of MGBP 2,3 on Friday July 24th.
If someone offered NOK 2 per share of NORTH - a total of MGBP 20, they would acquire the 6,9% stake in TXP at a discount of 65% compared to the last closing price at AIM - GBP 0,735. Further more, to make it even more exciting - you would still have MBGP 17 of cash at hand to increase your position in TXP.
Go figure.
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Tobin also did an analysis
North is on the Norway stock exchange, fairly safe.
March financial report they stood at 50% discount to NAV, they had been sold of heavily like so many in the sector. They had more cash than their NAV and TXP their main investment. At that time TXP was 24p/share and valuation of TXP in portfolio approx £4.9million. If they hadnt sold any it would be about £15million. The 6.9% is now worth £9.31million. How much did they make selling TXP shares? £2million-£3Million?. If they sat on that cash they would have about £14million cash.
Still as much cash as their capitation.
They have Shares in reach subsea, they are up 38% since March 31st, so if they still own them, then worth 4.4million now.
If the other 8% on investments havent gone up, and remember we are talking of 31st March, they would still be £1.7million.
So investments txp, reach and others would be £15.4 million. So even though their SP is up they are likely to be still sitting at a discount of >50% to NAV, thanks to TXP
They were saying that they were going to invest some of their cash. If they did those investments could have done rather well over the past few months.
TXP was 23% of NAV. Now it will be over 30%
And they have done big share buy backs...
They had some tax question hanging over them, but that was dropped.
2nd quarter report out on 31st August.
It looks a bargain.
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Norb reply
Tobin, your figures makes sense. We havent seen any sign of new investments since Q1, and after the final settlement with the tax authorities in early April. Thats why I argue they still sit at MGBP 11,7 in cash. During Q2 they have paid a dividend of MGBP 1,8 to their major shareholders from a group entity owned 80/20 which they now are merging with NORTH. This could also be the main reason why they sold +5 mill shares in TXP in Q2 - to keep their cash balance more or less unchanged after the dividend.
TXP came as a surprise 3-4 years ago, and they may pull something like that out of t
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