Member Info for danawinner

Norb, once you get to 30% you have to make an offer.

Corpse,
I think that previously, North were selling to raise funds for their merger.
I think that they were doing so on the basis of reaching their specified target price and were quite happy to see the SP drift up once they had hit their daily target.
What we saw yesterday was aggressive selling to try to keep the price down, or in a particular price range.
This is often a precursor to the usual 'The offer price X is at a premium of Y% to the average daily price of Z in the preceding five days.'
We are sitting on a share that easily has the potential to be £1.50 by the end of the year, and £3 by the end of next with nothing more happening.
It should come as no surprise to any of us that the potential has been spotted by someone with deep pockets, we are a sitting duck with the SP at its current level.

Looks to me like we have a very significant change in strategy here.
It seems that there is very good buying activity and someone is selling hard to suppress the price.
It could be the usual approach of lending out shares so that no TR1 has to be made.
I think that we have a sea change and I suspect that we have the same pattern as we had with RRE,
Looks like this is orchestrated, as many a concert is.
I shall watch with interest, something is definitely afoot, imho.
Don't take the first, or any offer.
Was in the Netherlands so unable to comment today.

I only just noticed the late-reported trades from Friday.

Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
07-Aug-20 16:26:02 74.75 34,800 Buy* 73.00 74.00 26.01k O
07-Aug-20 16:12:29 72.00 60,000 Sell* 73.00 74.00 43.20k O
07-Aug-20 14:30:57 73.00 103,727 Sell* 73.00 74.00 75.72k

Personally, I think that anyone would be mad to sell at the moment, but the key trade is the buy of 34,000 at 16.26pm where the buy price was over the offer for a relatively small trade.
It augurs very well for tomorrow, I think we will see 75 pence on the open.
Onwards and upwards.

Trek, that is a beautiful chart indeed!
Whichever way you choose to look at us, we are looking lovely!
The naysayers/those looking for a cheaper entry point will be struggling to find ammo to talk us down, but as you say, poor earnings may be a catalyst. I can't see it myself, because the prospective change in income stream is such a seismic shift.
All in all I think that we have a good week ahead of us.
It is great to see so many are up early in the morning, a sign if ever there were one of motivated investors.
We are number three on the hot chat boards but will soon be eclipsed by the masses talking about the big pharmas and covid-driven stocks - carry on, we'll just make money quietly instead, but it is always nice to attract new interest.
If you are a prospective new investor in TXP, come on in, the water's fine.

Trek/Bido I don't think that we are seeing trading or share price patterns that remotely suggest a takeover bid being imminent, yet.
It will come in time, as sure as night follows day, but nothing on the horizon at the moment.
There are no significant blocks of shares available, and to get to the Concert Party threshold of 30% would take a great deal of buying and push us Northwards on a daily basis.
If you look at the potential bidders, the management is not in a position to mount an MBO, and I don't see Vulture Capitalists in the mix, as it would take a very long-winded buying programme that would take the profit out of it.
I can only see that the suitors will come from the oilies like BP and Shell that are wanting to 'Greenify' by increasing their Natural Gas portfolios, and if we hit big on Chinook and subsequently on Royston, then we are at the races.

The Royston Gas Prospect is deeper than the company’s first two targets, with an estimated target depth for ROYSTON-1 of 11,500ft. Baay told us the “rig on the island, which is large enough to drill this well, will not be available until Q1 2020.” While this means a little bit of a wait for shareholders, this could end up being well worthwhile. Touchstone believes it has a 34% chance of success at ROYSTON-1 of hitting an unrisked 11.3Mboe.
I can see the SP at £1.50 once Chinook reserves are confirmed by a third party, and possibly £3 if Royston is as hoped, but that is running way too far ahead at this stage.
Ah well, if you're going to dream, you may as well dream big.

I like this analysis best of all.
https://uk.tradingview.com/symbols/TSX-TXP/technicals/
Look at the one week analysis.
Scorchio.

is anticipated this week.
As we know, the company withheld its oil stocks from the market and subsequently sold at a higher price avoiding the very low prices. This will have an impact on cash flowing into the business during the quarter, but a very wise move.
Even so, we can anticipate low-ball figured, but it is all totally eclipsed by the increase in reserves, and the forthcoming 'wall of cash' from Coho1 and Cascadura.
I think that we can also anticipate a belated announcement on the spud of Chinook, which I believe should be disclosed contemporaneously, even though the Nomad and TXP don't agree.
Overall, I think that the market reaction will be positive.
I am expecting us to catch up with the TSX share price, which closed on Friday at CA$1.37 which at an exchange rate of 1.75 is 78.2 pence.
Add into the mix the spud, another 5 pence or so, we should be over 80 pence by the end of the week.
Then if (when) we hit another monster at Chinook, I can see us going over the £1 mark by mid-September.
All in all things are looking very good.
I will be quiet this week, Netherlands tonight/tomorrow and then London and Glasgow.

Norb/Tobin it looks to me like your Broker has set the automated trades at 5,000 lot size to trigger below a specified threshold.
There was insufficient stock at that level. to fulfil your order and hence the first U/T for this share for a long time.
I think that you will get the rest on Monday if the order is still live.
You can see that it is a stock with low volumes and seems to be very responsive to supply/demand levels.
The corollary of this is that it will be similarly responsive in a downward direction if you want to sell in a hurry.
Unless, of course, there is a surge in demand once the June quarter results are out at the end of August.
Which there will be. Huge. Now that the inter-company merger seems to be complete, I think that North is now likely to sit on its TXP shares, I can see no reason to sell, unless they know of a better opportunity, which would take a bit of finding imho.
As I said previously, I think that North would definitely benefit from a dual listing on the AIM market but that is a long-shot.
I think that the August results will see a 25% lift in the North price and upwards from there with a three month lag behind the TXP price, as the Oslo Bors seems to be a bit sleepy, sorry norb, but you should be happy as it means that you can buy early and profit from your fellow Norwegians' slow response. So can we!
It is still summer in Norway, so everybody is outside enjoying the sunshine - I will never forget my trip on the Hurtigruten in mid-summer and the ship docking at 3 or 4 am and the streets being full of people partying - I love it. The first time I went to Norway was in 1966 and we drove from Oslo to the North Cape/Nordkapp - it was narrow dirt roads and ferries to get there - the fishing was great but the mosquitoes are like birds and you get bitten to death. 3 or 4 weeks without sleep because it is day all the time, it must have been exhausting for my parents!

Sorry, $2.26.
But is $2.66 possible by the end of the month?
Now that would be nice.
We were down at $1.53 at the end of June so the price has a lot of volatility.

$2.66 and rising

$2.22
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/natural-gas-price

I don't know if you all know this site or not, but I find it a rather useful tool for a quick check of any share that I am looking at.

Have a look at this, it seems to like TXP.

You will spend hours checking your shares!

https://uk.tradingview.com/symbols/LSE-TXP/technicals/

Have fun, I am out and about tomorrow so radio silence, look after the shop please.

I love the world to know as well.
https://trinidadexpress.com/newsextra/touchstone-makes-largest-land-based-natural-gas-find-in-t-ts-history/article_fbeb9712-cb70-11ea-bbc8-7fbb1bce6f2f.html?fbclid=IwAR04KDCJOSIwCfIuNjbWE_NVn9qqcSk4pS40ZjuJFLMoW9Sde0HMSE-i-4s#utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social

Phoebus, I think that the gas price has jumped 15% in 24 hours has helped.
There are still some Gas companies such as TXP that have not yet reacted properly.
It is only a matter of time.....

Russell I never make promises but things are moving in the right direction, imho.
Target price is 50 pence, hopefully within a year.
If we continue to get on the risers board, people take notice.
Very low volume share so if the herd arrives we will do well.

Perhaps I was a little understated in my comments earlier about the potential SPT tax reforms.
Election result is 12th August, then it will take 6 to 12 months to get the reforms through, with a bit of encouragement from the big producers.
We are planning, I think to drill Cascadura Deep after we have hit the gas at Chinook, so by the time the rig gets back there it will be the end of September.
It will be a protracted drill, probably 40 days or more to get down to the basement, and then I am dreaming that we will find something that can produce 5,000 barrels per day, and probably a load of gas too.
So this should be proved up by mid January and a good few months to get the pipeline in, and oil back up to $50.
Producing in about a year's time then, so the timeline for SPT reform is about right.
Paul will need to schmooze the new Prime Minister as soon as he is elected.
In the meantime, to avoid the wait for these big gains I have had a little dabble in JKX which is gas orientated and due repayments of £30m from Government which is the mcap. Already sitting on a big cash pile and rising.

A very good friend was encouraging me to buy last week, but I was engaged elsewhere.
Happy to get in now though at 21.5 pence with a modest 50,000 at 10.00.04 trade.
I can see the future here and even diverted funds that were going to go into TXP but I am very heavyweight there so no harm in a bit of diversification. A bit effed off that I sold out of REDX at 34 pence a couple of months ago but hey ho it's all about timing and I think that I may have got this one right.
SIPP up 600% YTD so something is going okay overall.
Good to join you for a fun ride, I can see 30 pence in a fortnight if the market catches on.

Twatter is ramping. Low volume share .
The big jump on the offer price is to 21 pence.

If we hit a big find with Cascadura Deep, this is great news.
All of our current income is oil, so this is still relevant when oil goes over $50.