Member Info for damofarl

Herminator; firstly apologies the tardy response.

To answer your post, where do I see the share price in 2 years, well at £3

I too feel SEPL's prospects are "very exciting" - in fact I'm more excited than at any point in the 10 years I've held. There are a number of reasons I'm not euphoric about any potential SP rise, and shake my heads at suggestions of £5 a share in short term:

1) SEPL continually and proactively deliver dividends, and where profits excel beyond their considered range, they return that swiftly in increased/special dividend. For instance about 5 years ago, when oil price was elevated, they increased a dividend to reflect such. To me, this record means that the dividend will return increases in income sharply, and promptly, and naturally act as a drag on SP appreciation as value is constantly extracted (to shareholders).

2) I believe SEPL is an acorn growing into a might oak, both organically by better production and better routes to market, and inorganically, yes by big oil off casts, but also absorption of the other Nigerian centric producers. I cheered the initial MPNU announcement, and then looked on bemused by it's lack of positive impact on SP - the investor knowledge/interest/awareness is such that seemingly people were negative initially, perhaps displayed an indifference/ignorance to the long term potential. This same negativity reappeared at consummation when the royalty/tax rates were declared. So for me the impatience/unwillingness of investors to understand 'Nigeria Time', means any subsequent purchases/mergers will restrain the SP. Initally.

3) I think SEPL will get taken out before it approaches anywhere near £5, and frankly I'll be surprised if MAU*, our major shareholder, aren't already running a rule over it. As a govt backed Company, it would have no difficulty raising funds/bonds/debt to acquire, and as it did, with Wentworth (which I held) taking over at a premium to SP but a considerable discount to asset/potential, just as the (acquired) Company was about to catapult upwards.

4) Wider investor knowledge by institutions and by small personal investors is poor; personally I don't think this is SEPL's fault t, their presentations being excellent, and fluff free. And yes it is negatively impacted by (Ill founded in my opinion) concern both over African/Nigerian stability for the business environment and ESG failings. Part of this is SEPL's London listing that doesn't allow inclusion in tracker funds, and I would rather have liked instead of a pure bond reissue for the MPNU, a hybrid rights issue to the UK market, to increase the UK free float, to increase the possibility of index inclusion, and thus investor exposure.

In conclusion, yes, interesting times, and whilst I don't see a catipultion of SP, I do see growth in SP, slowly and continually, and I do see healthy dividends, incrementally and regularly.

* I own shares in MAU.

Herminator; yes in most big oil, the state has partner stakes, and it is in the governments Interest to ensure that production/income. One would be naive not to see that SEPL's navigation of MPNU acquisition is a template for the Nigerian govt, that yes we will allow takeovers , but the "new' owner must be a party inextricably linked to Nigeria, and it's LONG term future, who we can trust. SEPL's probity, has put them in the driving seat for such acquisitions, precisely because they can piggy back on SEPL's probity to say 'we are open for business, we welcome, respect and honour investment.

The fiscal mgmt, and social inclusiveness that SEPL demonstrate day to day in their business, can be held up, as an examples by the govt to say, business is good for Nigeria, and Nigeria is good for business. I only see a cementing of relationships, and opportunities with the govt. Exciting times, in the land of the youngest fastest growing population on the planet.

Herminator; SEPL's delivery, probity, (which in recent times has caused difficulties) has demonstrated to the increasingly forward looking govt, that they are a lever to those govt objectives, and very much the conduit to deliver such. And in that, yes, I agree, there is more big oil off casts to be acquired, not least that the MPNU acquisition will have brought with it highly trained/experienced staff. As I suggested previously, there are also a large number of indigenous producers that SEPL could absorb, utilising that skill base to garner production gains/economies of scale.

Despite being in the very fortunate position that SEPL has grown to be my (disproportionately) largest holding, I can't sell, as there is SO much more upside here.

If they made NO new acquisitions, and just managed their resource to death, the return here is enormous.

SEPL will become the Nigerian champion it has long aspired to be, precisely because of it's mgmts quality and probity.

Yes, what a beautifully boring update.

And this caught my eye, '......while our capital expenditures are substantially below budget so far in 2025' - substantial is a strong statement, demonstrating the substantial ability of this mgmt team to manage all the moving impacting parts.

One of the most boringly predictable stocks I own - and that excites me very much.

Some excellent posts on here today, thanks all.

And yes, do think they are lacking/manipulating the messaging, and dressing up dividend cuts with the smoke and mirrors of specials.

Dressing up a cut as a gain, is a sleight of hand that always makes me worried.....

Casapinios; thanks your quick response

Can I sell my prexisting shares today and still retain the rights?

And the sudden rush/urgency to secure cash from treasury at higher than cost shouts a need for cash - to meet the fixed dividend.

Concerned.

Gavster-NBC;

Thanks your thoughts, and apologies my tardy response to such, whilst I've been holding counsel.

A quick aside, you make an interesting observation on the Trump Tantrum impact on bond yields, and FAIR being so US orientated that such would impact FAiR. I acknowledge your point, but have always felt that FAiR (and it's ilk) navigate/manage such, that whatever the prevailing market 'price' they lock in or procure margin, albeit such probity is not often seen immediately.

But I sought views, because as an unstinting fan of 10 years, the annual report didn't scream success to me. The headline earnings, income, were considerably less than the dividend paid, hence dividends were laid from cash at hand, and historically astute vesting/winding down investments, but ongoing earnings were not of a similar level, and the fixed dividend level not sustainable.

I have observed accretive buybacks, which were stopped exactly on the date that there was no NAV discount, and restarted immediately there was, I've seen market sales of those buyback treasury shares immediately that NAV hit a premium to share price.

What I saw was a diligence, a fiscal mgmt second to none.

Adding to my concern from the annual report, that earnings aren't covering dividends, and .mindful of my tenure here, experience, that there investments upfront are a cost/risk the benefit of which may not be seen immediately but years later, the current rush of treasury sales, sold to us in their RNS's as at premium to NAV, is for me uniquely uncharacteristically disingenuous.

I checked through all these treasury sales at NAV premium, and found that with the exception of one (which was marginal), they were all at a PREMIUM to their buyback cost - which to me is dressing up a failure/loss as a success/gain.

That to me this is worrying. In the non accretive nature of these sales, the seeming ignorance/Indifference that the NAV has fallen, and the virgin 'PR' of selling this as a gain.

They have definitely lost their way, and for the first time in 10 years I'm considering whether I need to sell my first share of FAIR, being quite a considerable proportional holding for me.

I'm not saying I fear a crash here, but I do fear they have lost their long standing assuredness, their astuteness, ability, history of navigating gyrations in markets and sentiments.

I have been watching FAIR news/RNS's more since the annual report than I have in 9 preceding years of holding. For me now it's not the hold and forget - it's become the watch and consider whether to sell.

Danielplainview;

Totally agree with your post a while ago, debunking concerns that $60 oil would derail PTAL's path/trajectory. Cause problems in planned works, challenge the dividend.

The recent oil price whilst not at projected is nearer to it than $60, and with the hedged production, and increased production, will get us to the same year guidance.

I see PTAL delivering as to year guidance. I see more of the same delivery on objectives, and dividends of this management.

Boring? Yes. Predictable? Yes. Enriching? Yes.

And as a patient investor, I patiently enjoy such probity.

Boringly great results. Still boringly bullish on TORO after 10 years. Long may her stampede of Income continue......

Gavster-NBC; Bravo, you succinctly summarised the results.

Having digested the whole thing, these are my thoughts -

Earnings per share were 8.73c and dividends were 6.76c, rather dispelling the frequent concern some have that this type of stock is eating itself, unsustainable, in it's high yield. It is clear, it is earning well in excess of it's dividend, and as I don't see any change to the current dividend policy (ever), that excess cash is obviously allowing them to advantage further contributing opportunities.

'The best contribution came from ABS/CLO risk retention strategies.......reflecting a high annualised NAV return of 46%'. This statement suggests that previously originated product has generated great margin, and TORO's mgmt (gambling?) on not trading such has bore fruit, which I see as a great positive as to their diligence/ability. I think for investors in this sphere, this is really important to appreciate - that there is a life cycle of commitment and obligation, upfront depreciating risk/cost, whilst appreciating reward/income.

Income of €1.1m from SRed, the Spanish property investment. I've said before SRed has been a drag on performance (albeit still marginally profitable), but they are now 90% out, and expect closure in 18 months. Whilst analytically you could consider this proportionally a poor investment for TORO (it is/was), their patient mgmt of this, to achieve cost +, I see as this as a great demonstration of their mgmt ability, and long term view. They could have, some would say should of, fire sold this, but rather than take that hit, they have curated it to a profit.

'although the discount to NAV narrowed......the Company intends to continue efforts to reduce it further....' well, as a seasoned watcher here, bar them stating such a couple of times previously, I'm not sure they have done anything to support this statement.if you increased the dividend, it would raise concerns of a basket case, so do they do buybacks? Not a fan, but even at the reduced NAV discount, still obviously accretive. Their assertion of action specifically on that point is spurious - their actions in delivering excellent performance/results isn't, and their continuance of such will naturally reduce the discount, as this years performance has demonstrated.. They highlight that 'credit losses will see an uptick '. This doesn't concern me remotely, both because they factor in a percentage of failure, and because of the very fact that they highlight it so matter of factly - ie business as usual but we are monitoring. The only thing that caught my eye, headline negatively, was, total operating expenses increased from €4.3m to €6.4m which is a substantial increase. Didn't observe any director/staff largesse, so can only presume that reflects higher financing/trading costs linked to increased proactivity on margin procurement. Frankly if you keep delivering such performance/dividends, to me, that's a barely noticeable smudge. Borin

Gavster-NBC; ha ha, you did make me chuckle. Yes loads of boring stuff, but thanks for the synopsis, as I haven't read yet. I often find boring stuff (stocks) very rewarding!

I'll have a look later, and add my thoughts, but as I've posted here recently, I do think TORO are really excelling at the moment - and I've been here 10 years, so I don't suggest such lightly.

Also being responding on the FAIR board, as quite a few thoughts on that, which I've also held for 10 years.

Raxfactor; thanks for that article link. A very good piece, from investors in SEPL point of view. I particularly liked the suggestion that gas is probably 3 times the declared level.

Despite the recent rises, SEPL isn't truly valued. There are so many drivers here, yes the gas plant, bringing on more wells, capturing more gas. And for me there is also the opportunity to truly be a Nigerian Champion, by scalping some of the other, smaller, indigenous Nigerian producers, into the cold.

Exciting times for SEPL holders. And fiscally rewarding ones at that.

Bearraider; great story.

Bearraider; welcome aboard. Did make me chuckle that - a bear buying a bull.

Seriously, I've received over 10% dividend every year for the last 10 years - I'd consider that more than a 'decent' track record......

Somekindofnut; excellent post, with prescient points

Mr Careful; Thanks for posting the update from DNO...I noticed this from it:

.'Tawke license sales averaged USD 20 million net to DNO per month, generating around USD 10 million of free cash flow.'

Which rather begs the question as to why GENL in it's 1Q update, states free cashflow for the quarter of $5m - surely their 25% holding equates to about $10m a quarter?

What am I missing here?

Hello fellow FAIRies; any views on the annual report, recent NAV notifications?

Personal view is that are having a bit of a wobble at the moment from their normal sure footedness.

Noquestionmarks;

Can't question your logic there