Member Info for damofarl

Hi GavsterNBC;

I haven't recrunched your numbers, knowing your diligence on such, but yes, your gist is correct.

The redemption IS at NAV, just increased.

Timescale for TOTAL wind down, well, how long is a piece of string, but I'm factoring about 6 years, if done diligently/maximising returns (which i expect), or 4 years on a more fire sale whilst still appreciative basis.

My post highlighted the 3 yearish ongoing financial commitments to loans (which doesn't mean they can't sell out of such), but also that 55% of holdings are now beyond further obligation, so are now reducing risk, returning income, reducing liability accounted obligation - many are expiring through the next 6 months.

On your dividend return assumptions, BGLF recently announced a slight change in tact on such. Positively. -

"The Company's dividend policy during its managed wind-down was set out in the Circular published on 25 August 2023, which stated that the Board intends to continue to distribute as dividends the interest payments deemed to be received from BCF on a quarterly basis, having regard to any amount which the Board deems prudent to retain in the Company.

Consequently, on 23 January 2024, the Board announced that it is targeting a total 2024 annual dividend of at least €0.09 per redeemable share, which will consist of quarterly payments of €0.0225 per redeemable share."

To me this is a more concrete assertion than previously dividend wise, which shows their confidence in the numbers (NAV wise), and the throw off of cash, as risk/obligations decline manifests. Indeed the return of capital is about half of current cash at hand, which gives confidence that that newly affirmed dividend has a while to run.

I think there will be further imminent capital returns, a couple this year, and not withstanding that such, at each realisation should reduce the SP, that only enhances your gist.

The catch? Well I TRULY don't see one, beyond the usual omnipresent misunderstanding of private investors in this sphere . Indeed as a product, there has been much commentary recently, from the likes of Bloomberg of how this kind of debt is becoming increasingly mainstream, reinforced by a recent investor podcast/promo I saw by AXA promoting their high yield debt centred ETF, in which they informed how the sort of instruments BGLF/FAIR etc work, and their increasing value, worth, mainstreaming.

You've done your sums, which concur with mine. I see this level of dividends for 18 months, with periodical returns of capital. All I see is a misunderstood, ignored, no brainer for the patient.

I know we are a select few here, but a few thoughts on the recent rns's.

Staring through the lens (of potentially a 5 year wind down), brings up questions as to whether to hold into such, whether to garner that NAV discount, and indeed, is it anywhere near true.

The latest NAV rns shouts to me that whilst the large NAV discount may not be true, that it is rising, suggests a large chunk of it is.

The return of capital rns at that elevated NAV supports it's truth, and the long time since first winddown notification suggests that there will be no fire sale, just diligent stewardship towards maximising NAV return.

The Quilter ownership reduction rns (still holding a substantial position) made me chuckle, showing that II investors are no better than you or me timing wise......they sold 5% but could have waited, done nothing and reduced through the capital return as t a considerably greater return. Yes there is oppurtunity cost potentially holding on here, but there is also impatience upside loss too.

The latest performance update shows business as usual. A rough crunch showed that 45% of existing loans had potential cash call/commitments stretching out to about 3 years. Whilst that does suggest that fruition of winddown could be a while here, the flip of that is that 45% are out of further commitments, and the risk (and contingency against such), is constantly reducing.

BGLF has been very good to me, and I was mixed as to whether to hold for what could be a while to ultimate fruition. On the day I saw these rns's I actually added - for the patient the 'arbitrage' oppurtunity he is just too great an opportunity to miss.

Hi GavsterNBC, hope you, your investments are well.

I can see your point, as this is the first time any of my investments in this arena has gone to a NAV premium. I haven't crunched the sums but I certainly won't be seeling FAIR whilst still boringly predictably delivering a c14% yield.

I've always found this stock type large NAV discount a comfort buffer. Whilst I don't blindly think they are full, I've always felt the truth was in the middle, and FAIR being at a premium does remove that buffer. But in my time here, (I think about 8 years now), that buffer has been replaced by an increasing understanding and appreciation of the quality of the team running this. I believe they will continue delivering (that sort of yield). Boringly. Constantly.

On large NAV discounts, and yes I know what you mean, there is loads abound at the moment, not sure whether you are in BGLF, but the recent rns's on increased NAV/capital return in winddown are worth a look - for the patience there is great upside as much of that discount is unwind through winddown.

Shepdave; thanks your workings.

As the UUUU price is now at $7.00, I calculate at BSE's current SP, there is still a 22% upside.....

Profit for the patient here, still.

Looking at the SP movement today, I must have read a different RNS to the market....

As for the dividend message priming for a reduction, I didn't see that at all, quite the opposite. I saw a prudent acknowledging that healthy cash supported a maintained level, shareholders patience, with a view to a return to a progressive dividend policy - whilst not holding itself to fortune.

Good update, good dividend position, irrational SP reaction.

A good day for those who held patiently into wind down.

The ignorance of the long term value here is shocking.

Viable; thank you for your posts, which I value greatly.

Divihunter112; you make a good poin on MySpace. The due diligence on moving parasol to Westmoreland, will presumably be the same due diligence on moving Myspace to whoever.

And presumably this is the same team that did said due diligence on MySpace/parasol in the first place.

Alavib; you me ruining buying/diversifying away from UK. You mention PTAL which is a class act - you could just as easily mentioned I3E, and a plethora of others.

I'd rather we didn't spend a penny on riverbanks, and spent on more wells, that way when the bank collapsed and silts up the river, we can marvel at how many wells we've shut in because we can't get their production barged away.

It's not a cost, it's an investment, and I'm scratching my head trying to work out why anyone would think otherwise....

Adding 5% to production for 1% of your mkt cap.......looks good to me.

Some excellent posts on here as ever. Thanks for them.

Drawing together some of those details, at $80 bbl with $17 opex on 64k bbl, and presuming a 50/50 share for the last 12 months with Mobil, I get $1.7b already in the lockbox since Jan2021

I see UUUU's share price is now above the share conversion deal price. Even better value here now.

Westmoreland are not the robust organizations SOHO suggest, having been censured by the social housing regulator for rent over charging not very long ago. And selling properties ? The last sales, according to Co updates was just to reaffirm the BAV, reassure investors. These subsequent sales either suggest that wasn't true, and was because of fiscal need, or that they are retrenching, not growing their proposition. I don't see this as good news at all, and as a big fan, this rns concerns me

Yesondoner7, tha k you for your excellent posts. I agree. Whilst affordable may be lower margin, it brings secure up front cash (quasi govt funding/grants), so a more capital light business, and allows an anchoring/certainty leveraging into economies for the private (more speculative) sales. Continuity and certainty bring value, and that's what 'affordable' brings to Vistry

Run1; ECCO is a good shout - they would be a good fit, and a good home.

It's quite obvious the approach is made because of the property - EP Group's property company's stated operational purpose is....."This role has gradually evolved into the preparation of transformational projects that explore the potential of areas whose energy-industrial use has been exhausted....."

Spare industrial property ripe for projects? Now who has a shed load of that. And selling out the Europe parcels business will cover the costs of such ambition.

..........."Dividends are tax-efficient means to draw a salary. Given the size of the shareholding from the board, I would not discount the fact that they missed the deadline for special dividends.

In my books it merits a bit of patience up to July."..........

Recent performance/oil price does suggest considerable room to raise, but as I've said before, I'd prefer the steady and sure 2c which is already a handsome shareholder reward. I'd rather ad hoc specials as (outperformance) warrants, without holding itself hostage to fortune. I am a BIG fan of the conservative pragmatism here, of it's expectation setting, of not shooting the stars out, just delivering consistently and constantly. Because of the mgmt style, I don't ever see the SP skylining, just a slow and sure drip drip rise, and I'll take that every day rather than the usual rollercoaster of broken projections ended.ic in AIM/small stock.